Reads as: riskier than 50.4% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
2
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
47 chains
FORVIS MAZARS LLP
251 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
54% fined
ARSHAD ABDULLAH
24 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
MO median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
2.35
2.41
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.18
0.25
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.05
2.24
3.11
—
Weekday total
2.46
2.49
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
64.0
2.35
0.18
0.68
1.48
2.05
0.0%
2025Q3
92
64.3
2.44
0.19
0.63
1.62
2.11
0.0%
2025Q2
91
63.2
2.09
0.17
0.53
1.38
1.79
0.0%
2025Q1
90
62.9
2.12
0.19
0.54
1.39
1.81
0.0%
2024Q4
92
71.6
2.18
0.20
0.50
1.48
1.78
0.0%
2024Q3
92
73.7
1.94
0.14
0.51
1.29
1.42
0.0%
2024Q2
91
70.0
1.48
0.04
0.56
0.88
1.20
0.0%
2024Q1
91
71.1
1.23
0.06
0.49
0.67
0.99
0.0%
2023Q4
92
69.1
1.33
0.08
0.52
0.73
0.97
0.0%
2023Q3
92
67.0
1.54
0.09
0.47
0.99
1.28
0.0%
2023Q2
91
68.4
1.51
0.11
0.48
0.92
1.16
0.0%
2023Q1
90
68.1
1.49
0.11
0.60
0.77
1.27
0.0%
2022Q4
92
66.9
1.52
0.11
0.57
0.84
1.23
0.0%
2022Q3
92
69.0
1.56
0.12
0.54
0.90
1.39
0.0%
2022Q2
91
68.9
1.26
0.08
0.43
0.75
1.13
0.0%
2022Q1
90
66.1
1.15
0.05
0.47
0.63
0.94
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely.
E
2025-09-22
2025-08-08
Health
F0655
Create and put into place a plan for meeting the resident's most immediate needs within 48 hours of being admitted
D
2025-09-22
2025-08-08
Health
F0699
Provide care or services that was trauma informed and/or culturally competent.
D
2025-09-22
2025-08-08
Health
F0759
Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater.
D
2025-09-22
2025-08-08
Health
F0883
Develop and implement policies and procedures for flu and pneumonia vaccinations.
D
2025-09-22
2024-11-20
Health · complaint
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
J
2024-12-16
2024-11-20
Health · complaint
F0610
Respond appropriately to all alleged violations.
J
2024-12-16
2024-08-16
Health · complaint
F0584
Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely.
D
2024-10-15
2024-08-16
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2024-10-15
2024-08-16
Health
F0693
Ensure that feeding tubes are not used unless there is a medical reason and the resident agrees; and provide appropriate care for a resident with a feeding tube.
D
2024-10-15
2024-08-16
Health
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
D
2024-10-15
2024-08-16
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2024-10-15
2023-05-04
Health
F0584
Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely.
E
2023-06-15
2023-05-04
Health
F0655
Create and put into place a plan for meeting the resident's most immediate needs within 48 hours of being admitted
D
2023-06-15
2023-05-04
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2023-06-15
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
33
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
CEO FINANCIAL SERVICES INC.
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
100%
2023-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
CEO FINANCIAL SERVICES INC.
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
100%
2024-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
CIRCLE B ENTERPRISES HOLDING COMPANY INC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
1996-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
STEELE DEVELOPMENT PROPERTIES LLC
Other (financial or non-financial)
100%
2024-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
STEELE DEVELOPMENT PROPERTIES LLC
Other (financial or non-financial)
100%
2023-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
AGH1 LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-25
current
pecos_ownership
AGH1 LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2016-12-02
current
pecos_ownership
ARSHAD, ABDULLAH
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2017-04-25
current
pecos_ownership
BEAIRD, TODD
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2022-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
BEDELL, BRYAN
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-05-12
current
pecos_ownership
BEDELL, DONALD
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
1997-01-06
current
pecos_ownership
BEDELL, DONALD
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2000-10-31
current
pecos_ownership
DCB REAL ESTATE PARTNERSHIP LP
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-11
current
pecos_ownership
FG LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2016-12-02
current
pecos_ownership
FORVIS MAZARS LLP
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-08-16
current
pecos_ownership
MID STATES INC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2010-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
SOVEREIGN HEALTHCARE GROUP LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-04-23
current
pecos_ownership
SOVEREIGN HEALTHCARE GROUP LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-06
current
pecos_ownership
SPENCE, ELIZABETH
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2026-01-02
current
pecos_ownership
STEELE DEVELOPMENT PROPERTIES LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2010-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
VAN DE VEN LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2000-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
CEO FINANCIAL SERVICES INC
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
100%
2020-01-01
ended 2020-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
CEO FINANCIAL SERVICES INC.
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
100%
2022-01-01
ended 2022-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
CEO FINANCIAL SERVICES INC.
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
100%
2021-01-01
ended 2021-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
DONALD BEDELL
CORPORATE OFFICER
100%
1997-01-06
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MID STATES INC
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
100%
2020-01-01
ended 2020-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
STEELE DEVELOPMENT PROPERTIES LLC
Other (financial or non-financial)
100%
2020-01-01
ended 2020-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
STEELE DEVELOPMENT PROPERTIES LLC
Other (financial or non-financial)
100%
2021-01-01
ended 2021-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
STEELE DEVELOPMENT PROPERTIES LLC
Other (financial or non-financial)
100%
2022-01-01
ended 2022-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
TODD BEAIRD
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2022-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ABDULLAH ARSHAD
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2017-04-25
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DONALD BEDELL
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2000-10-31
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ELIZABETH SPENCE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2026-01-02
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$982,263
$92,477
—
$271,386
$217,726
9
propco
2023-12-31
$859,775
$85,923
—
$249,674
$138,744
9
propco
2022-12-31
$704,909
$59,488
—
$195,437
$120,496
8
propco
2021-12-31
$666,939
$55,592
—
$163,449
$121,046
9
propco
2020-12-31
$559,477
$67,600
—
$144,026
$105,679
12
propco
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
32
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 29155
acs median gross
0
$868
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 29155
fmr
0
$660
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 29155
acs median gross
1
$449
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 29155
fmr
1
$713
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 29155
acs median gross
2
$641
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 29155
fmr
2
$888
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 29155
acs median gross
3
$850
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 29155
fmr
3
$1,171
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 29155
acs median gross
4
$884
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 29155
fmr
4
$1,176
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 29155
acs median gross
$695
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 29155
acs recent mover gross
$495
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 63877
acs median gross
1
$357
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 63877
acs median gross
2
$618
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 63877
acs median gross
3
$914
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 63877
acs median gross
$702
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 63877
acs recent mover gross
$575
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 63877
payment standard 110
0
$726
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 63877
payment standard 90
0
$594
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 63877
safmr
0
$660
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 63877
payment standard 110
1
$781
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 63877
payment standard 90
1
$639
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 63877
safmr
1
$710
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 63877
payment standard 110
2
$979
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 63877
payment standard 90
2
$801
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 63877
safmr
2
$890
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 63877
payment standard 110
3
$1,287
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 63877
payment standard 90
3
$1,053
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 63877
safmr
3
$1,170
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 63877
payment standard 110
4
$1,298
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 63877
payment standard 90
4
$1,062
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 63877
safmr
4
$1,180
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.