Reads as: riskier than 42.5% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
4
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
7 chains
JERGENSEN JOSHUA
249 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
7 chains
MITCHELL JOHN
264 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
6 chains
APT FREDERICK
254 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
5 chains
HANCOCK MARK
158 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
MO median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.73
2.41
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.68
0.25
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.24
2.24
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.93
2.49
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
65.0
3.73
0.68
1.15
1.91
3.24
12.2%
2025Q3
92
64.6
3.57
0.70
1.04
1.83
3.10
7.5%
2025Q2
91
64.4
3.36
0.63
0.99
1.73
3.08
15.4%
2025Q1
90
65.4
3.49
0.70
1.18
1.60
3.04
7.1%
2024Q4
92
62.6
3.58
0.64
1.13
1.82
3.21
9.0%
2024Q3
92
64.7
3.59
0.61
1.19
1.79
3.22
12.2%
2024Q2
91
65.4
3.46
0.66
1.13
1.67
3.17
9.4%
2024Q1
91
67.6
3.46
0.61
1.16
1.69
3.17
8.1%
2023Q4
92
67.5
3.38
0.61
1.08
1.70
3.08
0.0%
2023Q3
92
65.4
3.72
0.58
1.23
1.91
3.27
0.0%
2023Q2
91
68.6
3.66
0.55
1.15
1.96
3.22
0.0%
2023Q1
90
67.6
3.44
0.44
1.17
1.82
3.16
0.0%
2022Q4
92
65.2
3.38
0.47
1.10
1.82
3.37
0.0%
2022Q3
92
65.2
3.25
0.42
1.00
1.82
3.16
0.0%
2022Q2
91
64.9
3.23
0.37
1.11
1.75
2.90
0.0%
2022Q1
90
61.1
3.41
0.35
1.24
1.82
3.16
1.1%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
13
C × 2D × 2E × 7F × 1G × 1
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2025-02-10
Health · complaint
F0760
Ensure that residents are free from significant medication errors.
G
2025-02-27
2024-11-15
Health
F0657
Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals.
E
2024-12-30
2024-11-15
Health · complaint
F0658
Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality.
D
2024-12-30
2024-11-15
Health
F0680
Ensure the activities program is directed by a qualified professional.
C
2024-12-30
2024-11-15
Health
F0759
Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater.
D
2024-12-30
2024-11-15
Health
F0909
Regularly inspect all bed frames, mattresses, and bed rails (if any) for safety; and all bed rails and mattresses must attach safely to the bed frame.
E
2024-12-30
2023-08-11
Health
F0658
Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality.
E
2023-09-01
2023-08-11
Health
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
E
2023-09-01
2023-08-11
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
E
2023-09-01
2023-08-11
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2023-09-01
2023-08-11
Health
F0909
Regularly inspect all bed frames, mattresses, and bed rails (if any) for safety; and all bed rails and mattresses must attach safely to the bed frame.
E
2023-09-01
2022-04-28
Health
F0623
Provide timely notification to the resident, and if applicable to the resident representative and ombudsman, before transfer or discharge, including appeal rights.
E
2022-06-10
2022-04-28
Health
F0838
Conduct and document a facility-wide assessment to determine what resources are necessary to care for residents competently during both day-to-day operations (including nights and weekends) and emergencies.
C
2022-06-10
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
18
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
MAINSTREEIDENCE DEVELOPMENTS LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2016-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
PROVIDENCE GROUP NH, LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2023-06-30
current
pecos_ownership
APT, FREDERICK
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
HANCOCK, MARK
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
JAMES, DAVID
CONTRACTED MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2018-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
JERGENSEN, JOSHUA
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
MCCLAIN, CHRISTOPHER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-01-18
current
pecos_ownership
MITCHELL, JOHN
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
PACS GROUP, INC.
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2023-06-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PACS HOLDINGS, LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2023-06-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JASON MURRAY
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
42%
2024-04-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARK HANCOCK
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
42%
2024-04-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHRISTOPHER MCCLAIN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-01-18
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DAVID JAMES
CONTRACTED MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2018-03-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
FREDERICK APT
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOHN MITCHELL
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOSHUA JERGENSEN
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARK HANCOCK
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$649,198
—
$649,198
—
—
1
—
2023-12-31
$768,065
—
$768,065
—
—
1
—
2022-12-31
$693,159
—
$693,159
—
—
1
—
2021-12-31
$778,664
—
$783,964
—
—
1
—
2020-12-31
$492,081
—
$492,081
—
—
1
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
36
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 29019
acs median gross
0
$639
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 29019
fmr
0
$800
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 29019
acs median gross
1
$919
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 29019
fmr
1
$1,011
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 29019
acs median gross
2
$1,004
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 29019
fmr
2
$1,160
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 29019
acs median gross
3
$1,231
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 29019
fmr
3
$1,573
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 29019
acs median gross
4
$1,455
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 29019
fmr
4
$1,861
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 29019
acs median gross
5
$1,244
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 29019
acs median gross
$1,088
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 29019
acs recent mover gross
$1,214
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 65201
acs median gross
0
$632
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 65201
acs median gross
1
$932
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 65201
acs median gross
2
$1,030
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 65201
acs median gross
3
$1,218
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 65201
acs median gross
4
$1,248
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 65201
acs median gross
5
$1,036
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 65201
acs median gross
$1,091
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 65201
acs recent mover gross
$1,177
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 65201
payment standard 110
0
$880
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 65201
payment standard 90
0
$720
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 65201
safmr
0
$800
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 65201
payment standard 110
1
$1,111
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 65201
payment standard 90
1
$909
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 65201
safmr
1
$1,010
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 65201
payment standard 110
2
$1,276
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 65201
payment standard 90
2
$1,044
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 65201
safmr
2
$1,160
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 65201
payment standard 110
3
$1,727
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 65201
payment standard 90
3
$1,413
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 65201
safmr
3
$1,570
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 65201
payment standard 110
4
$2,046
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 65201
payment standard 90
4
$1,674
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 65201
safmr
4
$1,860
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.