Reads as: riskier than 80.5% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
8
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+25.9 vs natl
SAMUELIAN STEPHEN
20 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+25.5 vs natl
HAVEN HEALTH PROPERTIES LLC
11 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+22.8 vs natl
WEST CHRISTIAN
31 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+22.4 vs natl
ROBERTSON BRETT
31 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+22.2 vs natl
SAMUELIAN ROBERT
21 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+21.5 vs natl
FRAGOSO LINDSAY
31 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+21.4 vs natl
ESPINOSA STEPHANIE
29 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+21.2 vs natl
SAMUELIAN SPENCER
31 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
AZ median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
2.65
3.53
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.27
0.43
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.44
3.35
3.11
—
Weekday total
2.74
3.62
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
97.0
2.65
0.27
1.01
1.37
2.44
0.0%
2025Q3
92
93.5
2.67
0.25
1.00
1.43
2.41
0.0%
2025Q2
91
90.4
2.69
0.20
1.09
1.41
2.41
0.0%
2025Q1
90
96.4
2.57
0.18
1.03
1.36
2.34
0.0%
2024Q4
92
90.8
2.74
0.14
1.18
1.42
2.47
0.0%
2024Q3
92
98.1
2.69
0.17
1.09
1.44
2.43
0.0%
2024Q2
91
95.2
2.82
0.21
1.09
1.52
2.48
0.0%
2024Q1
91
95.3
2.72
0.20
1.07
1.45
2.44
5.1%
2023Q4
92
90.3
2.55
0.18
1.07
1.30
2.33
3.9%
2023Q3
92
89.2
2.76
0.15
1.15
1.45
2.48
2.7%
2023Q2
91
90.4
2.78
0.14
1.21
1.44
2.51
3.0%
2023Q1
90
90.0
2.77
0.14
1.28
1.35
2.55
0.0%
2022Q4
92
90.1
2.65
0.17
1.27
1.21
2.51
0.0%
2022Q3
92
89.5
2.73
0.21
1.31
1.22
2.43
0.0%
2022Q2
91
94.4
2.64
0.20
1.05
1.39
2.35
0.0%
2022Q1
90
94.3
2.73
0.24
1.02
1.47
2.50
3.4%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
18
B × 1D × 14E × 3
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2025-12-23
Health · complaint
F0658
Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality.
D
2026-02-02
2025-03-11
Health · complaint
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
D
2025-05-01
2023-10-19
Health · complaint
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
D
2023-11-22
2023-10-19
Health · complaint
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2023-11-22
2023-04-13
Health
F0580
Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident.
D
2023-06-21
2023-04-13
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2023-06-21
2023-04-13
Health
F0727
Have a registered nurse on duty 8 hours a day; and select a registered nurse to be the director of nurses on a full time basis.
E
2023-06-21
2023-04-13
Health
F0757
Ensure each resident’s drug regimen must be free from unnecessary drugs.
D
2023-06-21
2023-04-13
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2023-06-21
2022-03-25
Health
F0558
Reasonably accommodate the needs and preferences of each resident.
D
2022-05-09
2022-03-25
Health
F0623
Provide timely notification to the resident, and if applicable to the resident representative and ombudsman, before transfer or discharge, including appeal rights.
D
2022-05-09
2022-03-25
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
E
2022-05-09
2022-03-25
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2022-05-09
2022-03-25
Health
F0697
Provide safe, appropriate pain management for a resident who requires such services.
E
2022-05-09
2022-03-25
Health
F0732
Post nurse staffing information every day.
B
2022-05-09
2022-03-25
Health
F0757
Ensure each resident’s drug regimen must be free from unnecessary drugs.
D
2022-05-09
2022-03-25
Health
F0842
Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards.
D
2022-05-09
2022-03-25
Health
F0943
Give their staff education on dementia care, and what abuse, neglect, and exploitation are; and how to report abuse, neglect, and exploitation.
D
2022-05-09
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
30
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
ESPINOSA, STEPHANIE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-10-14
current
pecos_ownership
EVANS, COLE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-02-10
current
pecos_ownership
FRAGOSO, LINDSAY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-05-10
current
pecos_ownership
HAVEN HEALTH PROPERTIES LLC
5% OR GREATER MORTGAGE INTEREST
—
2019-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
HAVEN HEALTH PROPERTIES LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-11-26
current
pecos_ownership
HAVEN SAGUARO VALLEY REAL ESTATE LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-11-26
current
pecos_ownership
HAVEN SAGUARO VALLEY REAL ESTATE LLC
5% OR GREATER MORTGAGE INTEREST
—
2019-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
HEALTH GROUP MANAGEMENT LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-11-21
current
pecos_ownership
MUIR, MARK
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2019-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
ROBERTSON, BRETT
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2019-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
SAMUELIAN, ROBERT
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2019-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
SAMUELIAN, SPENCER
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2019-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
SAMUELIAN, STEPHEN
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2019-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
SANJEEV, BIJAY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
SEASTRAND, JASON
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2019-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
WEST, CHRISTIAN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2019-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
ZIKHALE, TSHEGOFATSO
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2019-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
HAVEN HEALTH GROUP LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2019-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
STEPHEN SAMUELIAN
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
37%
2019-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SPENCER SAMUELIAN
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
25%
2019-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ROBERT SAMUELIAN
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
20%
2019-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BRETT ROBERTSON
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
8%
2019-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHRISTIAN WEST
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
6%
2019-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JASON SEASTRAND
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
4%
2019-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BIJAY SANJEEV
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-06-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
COLE EVANS
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-02-10
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LINDSAY FRAGOSO
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-05-10
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARK MUIR
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2019-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
STEPHANIE ESPINOSA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-10-14
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TSHEGOFATSO ZIKHALE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2019-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$780,208
—
$780,208
—
—
3
—
2023-12-31
$780,264
—
$780,264
—
—
2
—
2022-12-31
$662,148
—
$662,148
—
—
0
—
2021-12-31
$519,351
—
$519,351
—
—
0
—
2020-12-31
$396,210
—
$396,210
—
—
0
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
36
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 04019
acs median gross
0
$864
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 04019
fmr
0
$967
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 04019
acs median gross
1
$1,011
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 04019
fmr
1
$1,081
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 04019
acs median gross
2
$1,275
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 04019
fmr
2
$1,402
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 04019
acs median gross
3
$1,647
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 04019
fmr
3
$1,950
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 04019
acs median gross
4
$1,814
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 04019
fmr
4
$2,245
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 04019
acs median gross
5
$2,356
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 04019
acs median gross
$1,212
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 04019
acs recent mover gross
$1,386
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 85710
acs median gross
0
$1,043
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 85710
acs median gross
1
$1,097
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 85710
acs median gross
2
$1,307
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 85710
acs median gross
3
$1,687
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 85710
acs median gross
4
$2,037
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 85710
acs median gross
5
$2,473
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 85710
acs median gross
$1,219
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 85710
acs recent mover gross
$1,284
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 85710
payment standard 110
0
$1,078
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85710
payment standard 90
0
$882
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85710
safmr
0
$980
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85710
payment standard 110
1
$1,199
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85710
payment standard 90
1
$981
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85710
safmr
1
$1,090
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85710
payment standard 110
2
$1,562
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85710
payment standard 90
2
$1,278
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85710
safmr
2
$1,420
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85710
payment standard 110
3
$2,167
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85710
payment standard 90
3
$1,773
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85710
safmr
3
$1,970
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85710
payment standard 110
4
$2,497
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85710
payment standard 90
4
$2,043
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85710
safmr
4
$2,270
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.