Reads as: riskier than 90.6% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
6
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+25.1 vs natl
HOOPER GRADY
61 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+21.9 vs natl
SILBERSTEIN ARI
31 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
8 chains
ELLENBOGEN MOSS
21 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
5 chains
SILBERSTEIN ARI
22 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
52% fined
SILBERSTEIN ARI
31 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
49% fined
HOOPER GRADY
61 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
TX median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
2.46
2.67
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.24
0.24
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.40
2.56
3.11
—
Weekday total
2.48
2.72
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
110.1
2.46
0.24
0.75
1.47
2.40
0.0%
2025Q3
92
105.2
2.15
0.14
0.72
1.28
1.94
0.0%
2025Q2
91
103.4
2.07
0.13
0.72
1.23
1.85
0.0%
2025Q1
90
104.7
2.22
0.25
0.75
1.22
1.97
0.0%
2024Q4
92
103.6
2.25
0.33
0.64
1.28
2.02
0.0%
2024Q3
92
103.9
2.05
0.30
0.68
1.07
1.68
0.0%
2024Q2
91
104.9
1.54
0.20
0.53
0.81
1.29
0.0%
2024Q1
91
105.0
2.07
0.17
0.79
1.11
2.00
0.0%
2023Q4
92
102.1
1.94
0.12
0.74
1.07
1.82
0.0%
2023Q3
92
95.9
2.07
0.11
0.78
1.18
2.21
0.0%
2023Q2
91
88.4
2.14
0.10
0.87
1.16
2.11
0.0%
2023Q1
90
84.5
2.11
0.15
0.80
1.16
2.11
0.0%
2022Q4
92
79.8
2.14
0.10
0.71
1.32
2.20
0.0%
2022Q3
92
90.3
2.07
0.10
0.74
1.24
2.17
0.0%
2022Q2
91
84.7
2.15
0.12
0.77
1.25
2.14
0.0%
2022Q1
90
80.3
2.72
0.23
0.96
1.52
2.57
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2026-02-19
2026-01-30
Health · complaint
F0692
Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health.
E
2026-02-19
2025-09-11
Health
F0550
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
E
2025-09-12
2025-09-11
Health
F0576
Ensure residents have reasonable access to and privacy in their use of communication methods.
E
2025-09-12
2025-09-11
Health
F0645
PASARR screening for Mental disorders or Intellectual Disabilities
D
2025-09-12
2025-09-11
Health
F0679
Provide activities to meet all resident's needs.
E
2025-09-12
2025-09-11
Health
F0698
Provide safe, appropriate dialysis care/services for a resident who requires such services.
J
2025-09-12
2025-09-11
Health
F0725
Provide enough nursing staff every day to meet the needs of every resident; and have a licensed nurse in charge on each shift.
F
2025-09-12
2025-09-11
Health
F0726
Ensure that nurses and nurse aides have the appropriate competencies to care for every resident in a way that maximizes each resident's well being.
E
2025-09-12
2025-09-11
Health
F0760
Ensure that residents are free from significant medication errors.
E
2025-09-12
2025-09-11
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
E
2025-09-12
2025-09-11
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2025-09-12
2025-05-27
Health · complaint
F0641
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
D
2025-06-30
2025-05-27
Health · complaint
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2025-06-30
2024-08-22
Health
F0550
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
D
2024-10-04
2024-08-22
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2024-10-04
2024-08-22
Health
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2024-10-04
2024-08-22
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2024-10-04
2024-08-22
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2024-10-04
2024-08-22
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2024-10-04
2024-08-22
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
E
2024-10-04
2024-08-22
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2024-10-04
2024-08-22
Health
F0881
Implement a program that monitors antibiotic use.
D
2024-10-04
2024-05-31
Health · complaint
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
K
2024-05-29
2024-05-23
Health · complaint
F0558
Reasonably accommodate the needs and preferences of each resident.
D
2024-06-17
2024-05-23
Health · complaint
F0584
Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely.
D
2024-06-17
2024-05-23
Health · complaint
F0919
Make sure that a working call system is available in each resident's bathroom and bathing area.
D
2024-06-17
2023-06-29
Health · complaint
F0776
Provide timely, approved x-ray services, or have an agreement with an approved provider to obtain them.
E
2023-07-20
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
17
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
ADVANCED HCS
—
—
2024-04-01
current
tx_hhsc_directory
BARRICK, SCOTT
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
BURLESON HC, LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
BURLESON HC, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
ELLENBOGEN, MOSS
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
HAMILTON COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
—
—
2024-04-01
current
tx_hhsc_directory
HOOPER, GRADY
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2024-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
HOOPER, GRADY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
KURUP, SAVITA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
SE JONES DR LLC
5% OR GREATER MORTGAGE INTEREST
—
2024-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
SILBERSTEIN, ARI
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
TETRA HOLDCO LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
HAMILTON COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2024-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
GRADY HOOPER
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2024-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
GRADY HOOPER
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2024-03-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SAVITA KURUP
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SCOTT BARRICK
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
4
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-03-31
$102,490
—
—
—
—
4
—
2023-12-31
$103,249
—
—
—
—
4
—
2022-12-31
$769,884
—
—
$666,635
—
5
—
2021-12-31
$691,703
—
—
$588,454
—
5
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
36
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 48251
acs median gross
0
$862
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48251
fmr
0
$1,427
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48251
acs median gross
1
$916
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48251
fmr
1
$1,473
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48251
acs median gross
2
$1,340
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48251
fmr
2
$1,723
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48251
acs median gross
3
$1,622
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48251
fmr
3
$2,273
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48251
acs median gross
4
$2,042
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48251
fmr
4
$2,815
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48251
acs median gross
5
$1,420
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48251
acs median gross
$1,398
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48251
acs recent mover gross
$1,613
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 76028
acs median gross
0
$1,375
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 76028
acs median gross
1
$1,317
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 76028
acs median gross
2
$1,481
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 76028
acs median gross
3
$1,868
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 76028
acs median gross
4
$2,398
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 76028
acs median gross
5
$2,250
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 76028
acs median gross
$1,677
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 76028
acs recent mover gross
$1,699
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 76028
payment standard 110
0
$1,606
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 76028
payment standard 90
0
$1,314
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 76028
safmr
0
$1,460
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 76028
payment standard 110
1
$1,661
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 76028
payment standard 90
1
$1,359
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 76028
safmr
1
$1,510
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 76028
payment standard 110
2
$1,936
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 76028
payment standard 90
2
$1,584
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 76028
safmr
2
$1,760
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 76028
payment standard 110
3
$2,552
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 76028
payment standard 90
3
$2,088
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 76028
safmr
3
$2,320
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 76028
payment standard 110
4
$3,168
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 76028
payment standard 90
4
$2,592
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 76028
safmr
4
$2,880
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.