3120 INDEPENDENCE STREET, CAPE GIRARDEAU, MO 63703 · CCN 265142
Composite
21.2 / 100 percentile
Peer group
snf n = 14,684
Evidence depth
deep
Certified beds
75
Model
v1.2
Reads as: riskier than 21.2% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
MO median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.94
2.41
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.42
0.25
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.61
2.24
3.11
—
Weekday total
4.06
2.49
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
50.8
3.94
0.42
1.14
2.37
3.61
0.0%
2025Q3
92
49.4
4.04
0.32
1.27
2.45
3.73
0.0%
2025Q2
91
50.5
4.01
0.31
1.28
2.43
3.69
0.0%
2025Q1
90
50.3
4.29
0.27
1.28
2.75
3.98
0.0%
2024Q4
92
52.7
4.04
0.22
1.23
2.59
3.62
0.0%
2024Q3
92
50.9
4.12
0.28
1.29
2.55
3.72
0.2%
2024Q2
91
54.0
3.60
0.38
1.10
2.13
3.42
1.4%
2024Q1
91
56.4
3.51
0.37
0.99
2.16
3.28
0.0%
2023Q4
92
56.7
3.78
0.43
0.98
2.37
3.33
10.8%
2023Q3
92
57.5
3.08
0.47
0.63
1.98
2.66
0.0%
2023Q2
91
57.9
4.04
0.42
1.33
2.29
3.75
17.1%
2023Q1
90
59.6
3.94
0.49
1.28
2.18
3.60
3.8%
2022Q4
92
63.0
3.84
0.47
1.28
2.09
3.54
3.2%
2022Q3
92
59.0
3.83
0.50
1.28
2.05
3.46
1.9%
2022Q2
91
60.0
3.56
0.47
1.14
1.95
3.22
0.0%
2022Q1
90
56.4
3.62
0.53
1.29
1.80
3.39
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
14
D × 13E × 1
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2025-01-23
Health
F0550
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
D
2025-03-14
2025-01-23
Health
F0623
Provide timely notification to the resident, and if applicable to the resident representative and ombudsman, before transfer or discharge, including appeal rights.
D
2025-03-14
2025-01-23
Health
F0625
Notify the resident or the resident’s representative in writing how long the nursing home will hold the resident’s bed in cases of transfer to a hospital or therapeutic leave.
D
2025-03-14
2025-01-23
Health
F0727
Have a registered nurse on duty 8 hours a day; and select a registered nurse to be the director of nurses on a full time basis.
D
2025-03-14
2025-01-23
Health
F0759
Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater.
D
2025-03-14
2025-01-23
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2025-03-14
2025-01-23
Health
F0947
Ensure nurse aides have the skills they need to care for residents, and give nurse aides education in dementia care and abuse prevention.
D
2025-03-14
2023-11-16
Health
F0623
Provide timely notification to the resident, and if applicable to the resident representative and ombudsman, before transfer or discharge, including appeal rights.
D
2023-12-22
2023-11-16
Health
F0625
Notify the resident or the resident’s representative in writing how long the nursing home will hold the resident’s bed in cases of transfer to a hospital or therapeutic leave.
D
2023-12-22
2023-11-16
Health
F0641
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
D
2023-12-08
2023-11-16
Health
F0700
Try different approaches before using a bed rail. If a bed rail is needed, the facility must (1) assess a resident for safety risk; (2) review these risks and benefits with the resident/representative; (3) get informed consent; and (4) Correctly install and maintain the bed rail.
D
2023-12-08
2023-11-16
Health
F0909
Regularly inspect all bed frames, mattresses, and bed rails (if any) for safety; and all bed rails and mattresses must attach safely to the bed frame.
E
2023-12-30
2022-05-19
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2022-06-30
2022-05-19
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2022-07-05
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
34
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
CAPE RETIREMENT COMMUNITY, INC.
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2009-11-20
current
pecos_ownership
BOELLER, KEITH
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2015-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
BRAY, NANCY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2007-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
CARINS, PAUL
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2017-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
EDMONDS, CHRIS
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2022-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
EUDY, DEBRA
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2015-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
FADLER, JEANNETTE
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2022-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
HERBST, CHARLIE
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2022-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
KASTEN, VERNON
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2015-01-27
current
pecos_ownership
KINDER, MARK
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2016-02-22
current
pecos_ownership
KLEIN, JOHN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2021-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
MATTINGLY, NANCY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2019-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
REEVES, DEAN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2021-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
SCHADE, KEVIN
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2022-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
SIDES, CHRIS
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2020-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
TANNER, ROGER
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2021-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
TAYLOR, STEVE
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2019-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
KEITH BOELLER
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2015-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARK KINDER
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2016-02-22
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
NANCY BRAY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2007-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PAUL CARINS
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2017-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
VERNON KASTEN
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2015-01-27
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHARLIE HERBST
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2022-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHRIS EDMONDS
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2022-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHRIS SIDES
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2020-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DEAN REEVES
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2021-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DEBRA EUDY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2015-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JEANNETTE FADLER
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2022-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOHN KLEIN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2021-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KEVIN SCHADE
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2022-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
NANCY MATTINGLY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2019-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ROGER TANNER
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2021-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
STEVE TAYLOR
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2019-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TERESA COMPTON
OTHER
—
2022-01-03
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$6,336
—
—
—
—
1
—
2023-12-31
$6,031
—
—
—
—
1
—
2022-12-31
$9,125
—
—
—
—
1
—
2021-12-31
$35,466
—
—
—
—
1
—
2020-12-31
$32,492
—
—
—
—
1
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
34
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 29031
acs median gross
0
$702
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 29031
fmr
0
$763
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 29031
acs median gross
1
$694
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 29031
fmr
1
$807
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 29031
acs median gross
2
$873
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 29031
fmr
2
$992
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 29031
acs median gross
3
$1,197
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 29031
fmr
3
$1,380
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 29031
acs median gross
4
$1,384
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 29031
fmr
4
$1,664
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 29031
acs median gross
5
$1,770
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 29031
acs median gross
$881
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 29031
acs recent mover gross
$978
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 63703
acs median gross
1
$805
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 63703
acs median gross
2
$942
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 63703
acs median gross
3
$1,041
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 63703
acs median gross
4
$1,294
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 63703
acs median gross
$902
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 63703
acs recent mover gross
$1,035
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 63703
payment standard 110
0
$814
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 63703
payment standard 90
0
$666
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 63703
safmr
0
$740
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 63703
payment standard 110
1
$858
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 63703
payment standard 90
1
$702
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 63703
safmr
1
$780
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 63703
payment standard 110
2
$1,056
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 63703
payment standard 90
2
$864
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 63703
safmr
2
$960
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 63703
payment standard 110
3
$1,474
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 63703
payment standard 90
3
$1,206
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 63703
safmr
3
$1,340
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 63703
payment standard 110
4
$1,771
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 63703
payment standard 90
4
$1,449
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 63703
safmr
4
$1,610
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.