Composite
53.1 / 100 percentile
| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| staffing risk | 94.6 | 94.6 | 0.25 | 0.1563 | 14.78 | in index |
| billing conduct | 42.8 | 36.5 | 0.30 | 0.1875 | 8.03 | in index |
| state reg risk | 40.2 | 9.0 | 0.30 | 0.1875 | 7.54 | in index |
| financial risk | 39.7 | 39.4 | 0.30 | 0.1875 | 7.44 | in index |
| regulatory risk | 34.8 | 24.4 | 0.30 | 0.1875 | 6.53 | in index |
| chow risk | 55.6 | 54.6 | 0.15 | 0.0938 | 5.21 | in index |
| ownership opacity | 82.0 | 75.2 | excluded |
| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| billing conduct | 36.5 | B | v0.1-pacpuf-snf | default · in composite | R22. PAC PUF SNF 2023. PDPM coding intensity vs acuity, stay length, charge markup. |
| chow risk | 24.6 | A | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| chow risk | 88.7 | F | v0.1-txhhsc | default · in composite | Texas licence reissue timing as an ownership-transfer proxy. |
| chow risk | 47.2 | C | v0.6 | default · in composite | |
| financial risk | 39.4 | B | v0.5 | default · in composite | R18. |
| ownership opacity | 75.8 | D | v0.1-txhhsc | default · in composite | Texas HHSC directory ownership structure: chain size, absentee owner, management company, entity form, owner closure history. |
| p adverse action 12m | 0.0 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 0.2 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
| regulatory risk | 24.4 | A | v0.3 | default · in composite | Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos. |
| staffing risk | 94.6 | F | v0.3 | default · in composite | Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS. |
| state reg risk | 9.0 | A | v0.5 | default · in composite | |
| financial risk | 52.2 | C | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 32.2 | B | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 36.4 | B | v0.3 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 45.4 | C | v0.4 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 24.3 | A | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 24.3 | A | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 94.6 | F | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 94.6 | F | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Never sold on record | 0.00 | -1.62 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 9.33 | -0.94 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | +0.69 | |
| Chain size (log) | 4.01 | +0.45 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.42 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 0.00 | +0.20 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 2.33 | +0.14 | |
| Contract staffing share | 0.00 | -0.10 |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chain size (log) | 4.01 | -1.13 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | -0.69 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 5.00 | +0.50 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.39 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 2.33 | +0.37 | |
| Never sold on record | 0.00 | -0.28 | |
| Fine amount, 12m (log) | 0.00 | +0.18 | |
| Occupancy | 0.71 | +0.17 |
| 2025Q4 HPRD | This facility | TX median | National median | National p25–p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total nurse | 2.33 | 2.67 | 3.28 | 2.90–3.77 |
| RN | 0.20 | 0.24 | 0.39 | 0.25–0.58 |
| Weekend total | 2.34 | 2.56 | 3.11 | — |
| Weekday total | 2.32 | 2.72 | 3.35 | — |
| Quarter | Days | Avg census | Total HPRD | RN | LPN | CNA | Weekend | Contract % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q4 | 92 | 89.3 | 2.33 | 0.20 | 0.78 | 1.35 | 2.34 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q3 | 92 | 88.1 | 2.51 | 0.18 | 0.85 | 1.49 | 2.43 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q2 | 91 | 90.3 | 2.48 | 0.13 | 0.94 | 1.41 | 2.40 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q1 | 90 | 95.4 | 2.30 | 0.20 | 0.87 | 1.24 | 2.28 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q4 | 92 | 93.0 | 2.00 | 0.25 | 0.81 | 0.95 | 1.91 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q3 | 92 | 103.0 | 1.97 | 0.30 | 0.76 | 0.92 | 1.96 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q2 | 91 | 103.8 | 1.62 | 0.19 | 0.81 | 0.62 | 1.64 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q1 | 91 | 98.9 | 1.64 | 0.10 | 0.88 | 0.65 | 1.76 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q4 | 92 | 92.3 | 1.75 | 0.17 | 0.84 | 0.74 | 1.76 | 0.4% |
| 2023Q3 | 92 | 93.2 | 1.65 | 0.18 | 0.77 | 0.70 | 1.63 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q2 | 91 | 84.8 | 2.00 | 0.20 | 0.72 | 1.09 | 2.01 | 3.2% |
| 2023Q1 | 90 | 76.9 | 2.19 | 0.12 | 0.89 | 1.18 | 2.21 | 31.1% |
| 2022Q4 | 92 | 73.2 | 2.18 | 0.11 | 0.92 | 1.16 | 2.19 | 26.7% |
| 2022Q3 | 92 | 74.3 | 2.25 | 0.11 | 0.86 | 1.28 | 2.26 | 18.9% |
| 2022Q2 | 91 | 78.3 | 2.20 | 0.13 | 0.85 | 1.22 | 2.19 | 25.1% |
| 2022Q1 | 90 | 76.2 | 1.79 | 0.18 | 0.81 | 0.79 | 1.65 | 4.1% |
| Survey | Type | Tag | Deficiency | Scope | Corrected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-28 | Health | F0677 | Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable. | D | 2025-10-06 |
| 2025-08-28 | Health | F0690 | Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections. | D | 2025-10-06 |
| 2025-08-28 | Health · complaint | F0755 | Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist. | E | 2025-10-06 |
| 2025-08-28 | Health · complaint | F0761 | Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs. | D | 2025-10-06 |
| 2025-08-28 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | E | 2025-10-06 |
| 2025-04-09 | Health · complaint | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | D | 2024-10-03 |
| 2025-04-09 | Health · complaint | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | D | 2024-12-23 |
| 2025-01-30 | Health · complaint | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | D | 2025-01-31 |
| 2024-09-15 | Health · complaint | F0728 | Ensure that nurse aides who have worked more than 4 months, are trained and competent; and nurse aides who have worked less than 4 months are enrolled in appropriate training. | E | 2024-09-16 |
| 2024-05-30 | Health | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2024-07-22 |
| 2024-05-30 | Health · complaint | F0690 | Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections. | D | 2024-07-22 |
| 2024-05-30 | Health · complaint | F0755 | Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist. | E | 2024-07-22 |
| 2024-05-30 | Health · complaint | F0761 | Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs. | D | 2024-07-22 |
| 2024-05-30 | Health · complaint | F0806 | Ensure each resident receives and the facility provides food that accommodates resident allergies, intolerances, and preferences, as well as appealing options. | E | 2024-07-22 |
| 2024-05-30 | Health · complaint | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | E | 2024-07-22 |
| 2024-05-30 | Health · complaint | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | D | 2024-07-22 |
| 2023-09-08 | Health · complaint | F0755 | Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist. | E | 2023-09-26 |
| 2023-03-22 | Health | F0561 | Honor the resident's right to and the facility must promote and facilitate resident self-determination through support of resident choice. | D | 2023-04-28 |
| 2023-03-22 | Health | F0584 | Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely. | D | 2023-04-28 |
| 2023-03-22 | Health | F0585 | Honor the resident's right to voice grievances without discrimination or reprisal and the facility must establish a grievance policy and make prompt efforts to resolve grievances. | D | 2023-04-28 |
| 2023-03-22 | Health | F0636 | Assess the resident completely in a timely manner when first admitted, and then periodically, at least every 12 months. | E | 2023-04-28 |
| 2023-03-22 | Health | F0641 | Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment. | D | 2023-04-28 |
| 2023-03-22 | Health | F0644 | Coordinate assessments with the pre-admission screening and resident review program; and referring for services as needed. | D | 2023-04-28 |
| 2023-03-22 | Health | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | D | 2023-04-28 |
| 2023-03-22 | Health | F0657 | Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals. | D | 2023-04-28 |
| 2023-03-22 | Health | F0759 | Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater. | D | 2023-04-28 |
| 2023-03-22 | Health | F0790 | Provide routine and 24-hour emergency dental care for each resident. | D | 2023-04-28 |
| 2023-03-22 | Health | F0804 | Ensure food and drink is palatable, attractive, and at a safe and appetizing temperature. | E | 2023-04-28 |
| 2023-03-22 | Health | F0808 | Ensure therapeutic diets are prescribed by the attending physician and may be delegated to a registered or licensed dietitian, to the extent allowed by State law. | D | 2023-04-28 |
| 2023-03-22 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | E | 2023-04-28 |
| 2023-03-22 | Health | F0813 | Have a policy regarding use and storage of foods brought to residents by family and other visitors. | D | 2023-04-28 |
| 2023-03-22 | Health | F0868 | Have the Quality Assessment and Assurance group have the required members and meet at least quarterly | D | 2023-04-28 |
| Owner | Role | Pct | From | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FANNIN COUNTY HOSPITAL AUTHORITY | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 100% | 2017-04-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| ENSIGN SERVICES INC | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2017-04-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| FANNIN COUNTY HOSPITAL AUTHORITY | — | — | 2026-04-01 | current | tx_hhsc_directory |
| JACK FINNEY HEALTHCARE, INC | — | — | 2026-04-01 | current | tx_hhsc_directory |
| JACK FINNEY HEALTHCARE, INC. | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2017-04-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| NATIONAL HEALTH INVESTORS, INC. | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2016-04-29 | current | pecos_ownership |
| NICCUM, KEVIN | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2025-04-14 | current | pecos_ownership |
| NICCUM, KEVIN | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2017-04-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| RUSHING, GINA | MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY | — | 2016-01-05 | current | pecos_ownership |
| RUSHING, GINA | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2025-04-14 | current | pecos_ownership |
| SANDERSON, CLARK | CORPORATE OFFICER | — | 2012-10-29 | current | pecos_ownership |
| TEXAS NHI INVESTORS, LLC | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2016-04-29 | current | pecos_ownership |
| CLARK SANDERSON | CORPORATE OFFICER | 100% | 2012-10-29 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| GINA RUSHING | MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY | — | 2016-01-05 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| GINA RUSHING | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2025-04-14 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| KEVIN NICCUM | MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY | — | 2017-04-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| KEVIN NICCUM | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2025-04-14 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| Close date | Price | Buyer | Seller | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-04-01 | — | FANNIN COUNTY HOSPITAL AUTHORITY | JACK FINNEY HEALTHCARE, INC. | chow |
| Close | Facility | Price | $/bed | Cap rate | Beds | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-01 | ST. ANTHONY'S CARE CENTER | — | — | — | 120 | SOUTH LIMESTONE HOSPITAL DISTRICT |
| 2025-10-01 | Avir at New Braunfels | — | — | — | 154 | 821 US HIGHWAY 81 W OPCO LLC |
| 2025-09-01 | Avir at Texarkana | — | — | — | 110 | GUADALUPE COUNTY HOSPITAL BOARD |
| 2025-09-01 | PARKS HEALTH CENTER | — | — | — | 90 | WEST COKE COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT |
| 2025-09-01 | WINDMILL VILLAGE REHABILITATION & CARE CENTER | — | — | — | 120 | FANNIN COUNTY HOSPITAL AUTHORITY |
| 2025-08-31 | Las Ventanas De Socorro | — | — | — | 126 | SOCORRO HEALTH CARE LLC |
| 2025-08-01 | Avir at Mineola | — | — | — | 115 | HOPKINS COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT |
| 2025-08-01 | Avir at Orem | — | — | — | 120 | 3730 W OREM DR OPCO LLC |
| 2025-08-01 | Avir at Courtyard | — | — | — | 120 | 7499 STANWICK DR OPCO LLC |
| 2025-08-01 | HILLSIDE MEDICAL LODGE | — | — | — | 128 | CORYELL COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL AUTHORITY |
| 2025-08-01 | Avir at Pasadena | — | — | — | 131 | 4300 VISTA RD OPCO LLC |
| 2025-07-01 | Highland Meadows | — | — | — | 120 | NOCONA HOSPITAL DISTRICT |
| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 48231 | acs median gross | 0 | $968 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 48231 | fmr | 0 | $1,582 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 48231 | acs median gross | 1 | $999 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 48231 | fmr | 1 | $1,648 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 48231 | acs median gross | 2 | $1,148 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 48231 | fmr | 2 | $1,931 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 48231 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,553 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 48231 | fmr | 3 | $2,431 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 48231 | acs median gross | 4 | $2,023 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 48231 | fmr | 4 | $3,091 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 48231 | acs median gross | $1,222 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| county 48231 | acs recent mover gross | $1,363 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 75402 | acs median gross | 1 | $1,241 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 75402 | acs median gross | 2 | $1,372 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 75402 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,740 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 75402 | acs median gross | 4 | $2,156 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 75402 | acs median gross | $1,445 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 75402 | acs recent mover gross | $1,446 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zip 75402 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $1,584 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 75402 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $1,296 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 75402 | safmr | 0 | $1,440 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 75402 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $1,650 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 75402 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $1,350 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 75402 | safmr | 1 | $1,500 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 75402 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $1,936 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 75402 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $1,584 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 75402 | safmr | 2 | $1,760 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 75402 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $2,442 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 75402 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $1,998 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 75402 | safmr | 3 | $2,220 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 75402 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $3,102 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 75402 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $2,538 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 75402 | safmr | 4 | $2,820 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |