Reads as: riskier than 25.9% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
2
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
8 chains
SELECT REHABILITATION LLC
50 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
8 chains
CARVAJAL PHARMACY LTC
22 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
TX median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.03
2.67
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.13
0.24
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.96
2.56
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.06
2.72
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
55.3
3.03
0.13
0.84
2.06
2.96
4.3%
2025Q3
92
54.3
3.09
0.16
0.77
2.16
3.02
1.4%
2025Q2
91
54.7
3.06
0.16
0.82
2.08
3.04
4.6%
2025Q1
90
55.7
3.02
0.15
0.82
2.04
2.99
8.1%
2024Q4
92
52.5
3.16
0.16
0.88
2.13
3.05
5.0%
2024Q3
92
54.0
3.14
0.19
0.79
2.17
3.05
4.7%
2024Q2
91
54.2
3.08
0.06
0.90
2.13
3.07
4.0%
2024Q1
91
52.8
2.95
0.23
0.68
2.05
3.00
3.5%
2023Q4
92
52.6
2.94
0.23
0.75
1.96
2.91
0.2%
2023Q3
92
50.8
3.17
0.19
0.84
2.14
3.08
0.7%
2023Q2
91
50.1
3.17
0.14
0.98
2.05
3.11
2.6%
2023Q1
90
55.4
2.89
0.14
0.87
1.88
2.86
0.0%
2022Q4
92
55.4
2.97
0.13
0.88
1.97
2.95
0.0%
2022Q3
92
55.7
2.94
0.15
0.83
1.96
3.04
3.5%
2022Q2
91
53.1
3.03
0.21
0.86
1.96
2.92
0.4%
2022Q1
90
50.8
2.88
0.04
0.91
1.94
2.89
0.8%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
17
C × 1D × 9E × 6F × 1
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2025-12-12
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
E
2026-01-22
2025-12-12
Health
F0813
Have a policy regarding use and storage of foods brought to residents by family and other visitors.
E
2026-01-22
2025-12-12
Health
F0814
Dispose of garbage and refuse properly.
C
2026-01-22
2025-12-12
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2026-01-22
2025-05-16
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2024-12-23
2024-09-27
Health
F0655
Create and put into place a plan for meeting the resident's most immediate needs within 48 hours of being admitted
D
2024-10-25
2024-09-27
Health
F0657
Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals.
E
2024-10-25
2024-09-27
Health
F0758
Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited.
D
2024-10-25
2024-09-27
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2024-10-25
2024-09-27
Health
F0813
Have a policy regarding use and storage of foods brought to residents by family and other visitors.
E
2024-10-25
2024-09-27
Health
F0842
Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards.
D
2024-10-25
2024-09-27
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2024-10-25
2024-09-27
Health
F0921
Make sure that the nursing home area is safe, easy to use, clean and comfortable for residents, staff and the public.
E
2024-10-01
2023-08-11
Health · complaint
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2023-08-12
2023-08-11
Health · complaint
F0805
Ensure each resident receives and the facility provides food prepared in a form designed to meet individual needs.
D
2023-08-12
2023-08-11
Health · complaint
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
E
2023-08-12
2023-08-11
Health · complaint
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2023-08-12
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
22
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
INCARNATE WORD RETIREMENT COMMUNITY, INC.
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
—
current
pecos_ownership
BLAND, ELIZABETH
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-07-17
current
pecos_ownership
CAMPBELL, LEROY
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-11-11
current
pecos_ownership
CARVAJAL PHARMACY LTC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
1997-08-14
current
pecos_ownership
CCVI
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
—
2023-09-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
CCVI
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
—
2022-09-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
CCVI
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
—
2024-09-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
CONGREGATION OF THE SISTERS OF CHARITY OF THE INCARNATE WORD, SAN ANTO
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
INCARNATE WORD RETIREMENT COMMUNITY, INC
—
—
2025-06-12
current
tx_hhsc_directory
INCARNATE WORD RETIREMENT COMMUNITY, INC.
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-05-13
current
pecos_ownership
KLINE, GWEN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-06-19
current
pecos_ownership
KLINE, GWEN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
NIXON, DANIEL
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-12-02
current
pecos_ownership
SELECT REHABILITATION, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
ZARATE, RUDOLFO
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2019-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
ELIZABETH BLAND
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2024-07-17
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LEROY CAMPBELL
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2024-11-11
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CCVI
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
—
2021-09-01
ended 2022-08-31
hcris_a_8_1
DANIEL NIXON
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-12-02
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
GWEN KLINE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
GWEN KLINE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-06-19
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RUDOLFO ZARATE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2019-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
4
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2025-08-31
$619,936
—
—
—
—
2
propco
2024-08-31
$786,871
—
—
—
—
2
propco
2023-08-31
$701,102
—
—
—
—
2
propco
2022-08-31
$728,797
—
—
—
—
2
propco
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
35
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 48029
acs median gross
0
$1,088
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48029
fmr
0
$1,077
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48029
acs median gross
1
$1,145
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48029
fmr
1
$1,177
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48029
acs median gross
2
$1,389
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48029
fmr
2
$1,426
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48029
acs median gross
3
$1,668
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48029
fmr
3
$1,830
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48029
acs median gross
4
$1,909
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48029
fmr
4
$2,132
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48029
acs median gross
5
$2,324
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48029
acs median gross
$1,354
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48029
acs recent mover gross
$1,427
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 78209
acs median gross
0
$1,298
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 78209
acs median gross
1
$1,207
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 78209
acs median gross
2
$1,583
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 78209
acs median gross
3
$2,329
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 78209
acs median gross
4
$2,500
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 78209
acs median gross
$1,447
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 78209
acs recent mover gross
$1,598
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 78209
payment standard 110
0
$1,342
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78209
payment standard 90
0
$1,098
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78209
safmr
0
$1,220
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78209
payment standard 110
1
$1,474
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78209
payment standard 90
1
$1,206
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78209
safmr
1
$1,340
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78209
payment standard 110
2
$1,782
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78209
payment standard 90
2
$1,458
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78209
safmr
2
$1,620
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78209
payment standard 110
3
$2,288
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78209
payment standard 90
3
$1,872
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78209
safmr
3
$2,080
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78209
payment standard 110
4
$2,662
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78209
payment standard 90
4
$2,178
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78209
safmr
4
$2,420
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.