Reads as: riskier than 72.1% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
2
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
8 chains
BLACKROCK INC
303 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
8 chains
VANGUARD GROUP INC
324 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
MO median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
2.55
2.41
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.16
0.25
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.23
2.24
3.11
—
Weekday total
2.67
2.49
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
80.4
2.55
0.16
0.71
1.69
2.23
0.0%
2025Q3
92
82.0
2.45
0.28
0.60
1.58
2.13
0.0%
2025Q2
91
81.1
2.57
0.32
0.56
1.69
2.23
0.0%
2025Q1
90
79.8
2.53
0.34
0.59
1.60
2.17
0.0%
2024Q4
92
78.9
2.38
0.29
0.58
1.51
2.03
0.0%
2024Q3
92
70.8
2.61
0.27
0.73
1.61
2.14
0.0%
2024Q2
91
71.4
2.32
0.34
0.44
1.54
2.00
0.0%
2024Q1
91
69.6
2.29
0.32
0.35
1.62
2.12
0.0%
2023Q4
92
68.4
2.39
0.33
0.42
1.63
2.15
0.0%
2023Q3
92
73.1
2.04
0.35
0.39
1.30
1.83
0.0%
2023Q2
91
80.1
1.99
0.45
0.32
1.22
1.79
0.0%
2023Q1
90
83.0
2.12
0.33
0.54
1.25
1.95
6.0%
2022Q4
92
81.6
1.98
0.11
0.58
1.29
1.80
3.1%
2022Q3
92
78.1
2.06
0.07
0.60
1.39
1.70
0.0%
2022Q2
91
83.7
1.89
0.10
0.58
1.21
1.51
0.0%
2022Q1
90
83.2
1.93
0.13
0.55
1.25
1.67
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
31
D × 22E × 6F × 2G × 1
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2025-08-04
Health
F0678
Provide basic life support, including CPR, prior to the arrival of emergency medical personnel , subject to physician orders and the resident’s advance directives.
E
2025-09-16
2025-08-04
Health
F0679
Provide activities to meet all resident's needs.
D
2025-09-16
2025-08-04
Health
F0759
Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater.
D
2025-09-16
2025-08-04
Health
F0760
Ensure that residents are free from significant medication errors.
D
2025-09-16
2025-08-04
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2025-09-16
2025-08-04
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2025-09-16
2025-08-04
Health
F0883
Develop and implement policies and procedures for flu and pneumonia vaccinations.
E
2025-09-16
2024-06-24
Health · complaint
F0686
Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing.
G
2024-07-24
2023-10-27
Health
F0698
Provide safe, appropriate dialysis care/services for a resident who requires such services.
D
2023-12-11
2023-10-27
Health
F0725
Provide enough nursing staff every day to meet the needs of every resident; and have a licensed nurse in charge on each shift.
E
2023-12-11
2023-10-27
Health
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
D
2023-12-11
2023-10-27
Health
F0757
Ensure each resident’s drug regimen must be free from unnecessary drugs.
D
2023-12-11
2023-10-27
Health
F0758
Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited.
D
2023-12-11
2023-10-27
Health
F0760
Ensure that residents are free from significant medication errors.
D
2023-12-11
2023-10-27
Health
F0883
Develop and implement policies and procedures for flu and pneumonia vaccinations.
D
2023-12-11
2023-10-27
Health
F0887
Educate residents and staff on COVID-19 vaccination, offer the COVID-19 vaccine to eligible residents and staff after education, and properly document each resident and staff member's vaccination status.
E
2023-12-11
2023-10-27
Health
F0947
Ensure nurse aides have the skills they need to care for residents, and give nurse aides education in dementia care and abuse prevention.
D
2023-12-11
2023-08-08
Health · complaint
F0602
Protect each resident from the wrongful use of the resident's belongings or money.
D
2023-08-09
2023-08-08
Health · complaint
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
D
2023-08-09
2023-07-06
Health · complaint
F0602
Protect each resident from the wrongful use of the resident's belongings or money.
D
2023-08-09
2023-07-06
Health · complaint
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
D
2023-08-09
2023-07-06
Health · complaint
F0686
Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing.
D
2023-08-04
2021-05-03
Health
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2021-06-12
2021-05-03
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
E
2021-06-17
2021-05-03
Health
F0686
Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing.
D
2021-06-12
2021-05-03
Health
F0690
Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections.
D
2021-06-12
2021-05-03
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
E
2021-06-17
2021-05-03
Health
F0742
Provide the appropriate treatment and services to a resident who displays or is diagnosed with mental disorder or psychosocial adjustment difficulty, or who has a history of trauma and/or post-traumatic stress disorder.
D
2021-06-17
2021-05-03
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2021-06-17
2021-05-03
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2021-06-17
2021-05-03
Health
F0921
Make sure that the nursing home area is safe, easy to use, clean and comfortable for residents, staff and the public.
D
2021-06-17
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
30
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
BLACKROCK INC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2010-01-20
current
pecos_ownership
CHANCE, JOLIE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2000-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
CHANCE, JOLIE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
DODSON, VICKI
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2019-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
JONES, STEPHANIE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-24
current
pecos_ownership
JONES, STEPHANIE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-07-05
current
pecos_ownership
KIDD, BRIAN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2017-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
NATIONAL HEALTH CORPORATION
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-21
current
pecos_ownership
NATIONAL HEALTHCARE CORPORATION
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-21
current
pecos_ownership
NATIONAL HEALTHCARE CORPORATION
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2000-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
NHC-OP LP
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2000-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
NHC/DELAWARE INC
DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2000-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
RECTOR, MELVIN
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2000-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
SHOCKLEY, CASSANDRA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-02-16
current
pecos_ownership
USSERY, ROBERT
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2000-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
VANGUARD GROUP INC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2006-11-30
current
pecos_ownership
BLACKROCK INC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
13%
2019-03-20
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
VANGUARD GROUP INC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
9%
2017-03-27
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
NATIONAL HEALTH CORPORATION
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
7%
2000-02-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS LP
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
6%
2023-03-07
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MORGAN STANLEY
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
5%
2024-11-08
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BRIAN KIDD
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2017-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CASSANDRA SHOCKLEY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-02-16
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOLIE CHANCE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2000-02-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOLIE CHANCE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-03-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MELVIN RECTOR
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2000-02-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ROBERT USSERY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2000-02-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
STEPHANIE JONES
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-07-05
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
STEPHANIE JONES
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-24
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
VICKI DODSON
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2019-06-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$732,088
—
$399,300
—
—
1
—
2023-12-31
$461,909
—
$9,417
—
—
2
—
2022-12-31
$362,073
—
$215,760
—
—
2
—
2021-12-31
$857,264
—
—
$18,777
$41,281
2
—
2020-12-31
$1,014,467
—
$6,363
$350,635
$35,407
2
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
28
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 29145
acs median gross
0
$473
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 29145
fmr
0
$760
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 29145
acs median gross
1
$587
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 29145
fmr
1
$765
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 29145
acs median gross
2
$863
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 29145
fmr
2
$947
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 29145
acs median gross
3
$875
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 29145
fmr
3
$1,237
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 29145
acs median gross
4
$983
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 29145
fmr
4
$1,285
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 29145
acs median gross
5
$1,671
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 29145
acs median gross
$817
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 29145
acs recent mover gross
$1,030
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 64803
payment standard 110
0
$858
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 64803
payment standard 90
0
$702
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 64803
safmr
0
$780
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 64803
payment standard 110
1
$858
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 64803
payment standard 90
1
$702
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 64803
safmr
1
$780
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 64803
payment standard 110
2
$1,067
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 64803
payment standard 90
2
$873
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 64803
safmr
2
$970
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 64803
payment standard 110
3
$1,397
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 64803
payment standard 90
3
$1,143
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 64803
safmr
3
$1,270
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 64803
payment standard 110
4
$1,452
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 64803
payment standard 90
4
$1,188
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 64803
safmr
4
$1,320
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.