Reads as: riskier than 21.9% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
14
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+24.9 vs natl
BERGER FAM TR UA 06252014
15 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+24.7 vs natl
STERN FAMILY INVESTMENT TR
15 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+24.6 vs natl
IGNITE VILLA HOLDCO LLC
12 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+23.9 vs natl
BERGER AVIVA
17 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+23.9 vs natl
ISRAEL YEHUDIS
17 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+23.8 vs natl
IGNITE POST ACUTE SOLUTIONS LLC
14 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+23.8 vs natl
BLUE PEARL FINANCIAL LLC
14 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+23.6 vs natl
GOLD PEARL LLC
19 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+22.4 vs natl
ISRAEL INVESTMENT TR
19 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+22.4 vs natl
STERN TODD
45 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+22.0 vs natl
FIELDS TIMOTHY
21 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+21.9 vs natl
ISRAEL FAMILY INVESTMENT TRUST
19 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+21.7 vs natl
ISRAEL BENJAMIN
40 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+20.8 vs natl
CARR BARRY
21 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
TX median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.13
2.67
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.56
0.24
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.12
2.56
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.13
2.72
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
68.0
3.13
0.56
0.89
1.68
3.12
1.4%
2025Q3
92
68.2
3.21
0.64
0.92
1.65
3.07
1.3%
2025Q2
91
67.0
3.38
0.63
1.06
1.70
3.30
1.3%
2025Q1
90
68.7
3.54
0.54
1.19
1.81
3.25
1.1%
2024Q4
92
67.2
3.39
0.36
1.32
1.72
3.28
0.0%
2024Q3
92
68.3
3.38
0.27
1.42
1.69
3.20
0.2%
2024Q2
91
68.5
3.45
0.41
1.42
1.62
3.22
3.5%
2024Q1
91
67.9
3.37
0.46
1.08
1.84
3.08
1.8%
2023Q4
92
68.7
3.50
0.42
1.17
1.90
3.26
0.0%
2023Q3
92
67.0
3.52
0.44
1.24
1.84
3.31
0.0%
2023Q2
91
66.9
3.39
0.38
1.18
1.83
3.27
0.0%
2023Q1
90
66.2
3.69
0.41
1.16
2.12
3.58
0.0%
2022Q4
92
65.2
3.75
0.28
1.33
2.15
3.68
0.0%
2022Q3
92
63.4
3.52
0.31
0.03
3.18
3.64
0.1%
2022Q2
91
53.6
4.38
0.51
0.20
3.67
4.01
0.3%
2022Q1
90
39.8
5.30
0.32
2.21
2.76
4.96
6.5%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
12
D × 7E × 3G × 2
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2026-04-24
Health · complaint
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
—
2025-06-11
Health
F0655
Create and put into place a plan for meeting the resident's most immediate needs within 48 hours of being admitted
D
2025-07-11
2025-06-11
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2025-07-11
2023-03-22
Health
F0565
Honor the resident's right to organize and participate in resident/family groups in the facility.
E
2023-03-24
2023-03-22
Health
F0604
Ensure that each resident is free from the use of physical restraints, unless needed for medical treatment.
G
2023-03-24
2023-03-22
Health
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
D
2023-03-24
2023-03-22
Health
F0693
Ensure that feeding tubes are not used unless there is a medical reason and the resident agrees; and provide appropriate care for a resident with a feeding tube.
D
2023-03-24
2023-03-22
Health
F0742
Provide the appropriate treatment and services to a resident who displays or is diagnosed with mental disorder or psychosocial adjustment difficulty, or who has a history of trauma and/or post-traumatic stress disorder.
G
2023-03-24
2023-03-22
Health
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
E
2023-03-24
2023-03-22
Health
F0759
Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater.
D
2023-03-24
2023-03-22
Health
F0842
Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards.
E
2023-03-24
2023-03-22
Health
F0921
Make sure that the nursing home area is safe, easy to use, clean and comfortable for residents, staff and the public.
D
2023-03-24
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
48
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
BERGER FAM TR UA 06252014
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2022-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
BERGER, AVIVA
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
BERGER, MENACHEM
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2022-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
BLUE PEARL FINANCIAL LLC
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2022-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
CARR, BARRY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2022-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
CARR, JARED
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
EXLEY, ANNE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
FIELDS, TIMOTHY
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2022-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
GILLIS, KAREN
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2022-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
GOBST, RYAN
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2022-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
GOLD PEARL, LLC
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2022-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
IGNITE POST ACUTE SOLUTIONS LLC
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2022-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
IGNITE TEAM PARTNERS LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-06-26
current
pecos_ownership
IGNITE TEAM PARTNERS LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
IGNITE WEBSTER JV, LLC
DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2022-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
IGNITE-VILLA HOLDCO LLC
DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2022-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
ISRAEL FAMILY INVESTMENT TRUST
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2022-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
ISRAEL INVESTMENT TR
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2022-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
ISRAEL, BENJAMIN
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2022-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
ISRAEL, YEHUDIS
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
JABLONSKI, NICOLE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
KAR, FIROOZEH
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
MCFARLANE, JOHN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
PRESTIGE WORLDWIDE WEBSTER, LLC
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2022-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
ROSE, MARC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2022-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
SHEARER, RACHEL
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2022-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
SPARK THERAPY LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-06-26
current
pecos_ownership
SPARK THERAPY LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
STERN FAMILY INVESTMENT TR
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2022-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
STERN, TODD
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2022-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
THENGIL, MATHEW
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
WHITE, JIM
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2022-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
BARRY CARR
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
100%
2022-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TIMOTHY FIELDS
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
100%
2022-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JARED CARR
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
3%
2025-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RYAN GOBST
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
2%
2022-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ANNE EXLEY
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
1%
2023-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JIM WHITE
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
1%
2022-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOHN MCFARLANE
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
1%
2022-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KAREN GILLIS
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
1%
2022-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARC ROSE
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
1%
2022-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MATHEW THENGIL
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
1%
2022-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
NICOLE JABLONSKI
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
1%
2022-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RACHEL SHEARER
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
1%
2022-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BENJAMIN ISRAEL
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2022-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
FIROOZEH KAR
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MENACHEM BERGER
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2022-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TODD STERN
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2022-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
3
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$2,000,620
—
—
$1,406,243
—
0
—
2023-12-31
$1,992,079
—
—
$1,347,725
—
0
—
2022-12-31
$1,363,796
—
—
$899,822
—
0
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
35
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 48201
acs median gross
0
$1,177
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48201
fmr
0
$1,280
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48201
acs median gross
1
$1,196
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48201
fmr
1
$1,323
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48201
acs median gross
2
$1,425
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48201
fmr
2
$1,573
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48201
acs median gross
3
$1,764
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48201
fmr
3
$2,116
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48201
acs median gross
4
$2,148
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48201
fmr
4
$2,639
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48201
acs median gross
5
$2,339
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48201
acs median gross
$1,401
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48201
acs recent mover gross
$1,495
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 77598
acs median gross
0
$1,332
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 77598
acs median gross
1
$1,201
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 77598
acs median gross
2
$1,518
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 77598
acs median gross
3
$1,655
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 77598
acs median gross
4
$2,355
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 77598
acs median gross
$1,355
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 77598
acs recent mover gross
$1,457
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 77598
payment standard 110
0
$1,540
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77598
payment standard 90
0
$1,260
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77598
safmr
0
$1,400
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77598
payment standard 110
1
$1,595
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77598
payment standard 90
1
$1,305
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77598
safmr
1
$1,450
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77598
payment standard 110
2
$1,892
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77598
payment standard 90
2
$1,548
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77598
safmr
2
$1,720
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77598
payment standard 110
3
$2,541
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77598
payment standard 90
3
$2,079
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77598
safmr
3
$2,310
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77598
payment standard 110
4
$3,179
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77598
payment standard 90
4
$2,601
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77598
safmr
4
$2,890
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.