Composite
77.4 / 100 percentile
| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| staffing risk | 94.2 | 94.2 | 0.25 | 0.3571 | 33.64 | in index |
| regulatory risk | 54.4 | 44.2 | 0.30 | 0.4286 | 23.31 | in index |
| chow risk | 10.6 | 23.9 | 0.15 | 0.2143 | 2.27 | in index |
| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| chow risk | 23.9 | A | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| p adverse action 12m | 0.1 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 3.5 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
| regulatory risk | 44.2 | B | v0.3 | default · in composite | Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos. |
| staffing risk | 94.2 | F | v0.3 | default · in composite | Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS. |
| regulatory risk | 44.1 | B | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 44.1 | B | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 94.2 | F | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 94.2 | F | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | +0.69 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.62 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 25.00 | +0.57 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.42 | |
| Chain size (log) | 0.00 | -0.40 | |
| Occupancy | 0.81 | -0.32 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 0.00 | +0.20 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 14.00 | +0.17 |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chain size (log) | 0.00 | +1.20 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 14.00 | -1.17 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | -0.69 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.39 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 2.34 | +0.37 | |
| Occupancy | 0.81 | -0.25 | |
| Fine amount, 12m (log) | 0.00 | +0.18 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.12 |
| 2025Q4 HPRD | This facility | MO median | National median | National p25–p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total nurse | 2.34 | 2.41 | 3.28 | 2.90–3.77 |
| RN | 0.20 | 0.25 | 0.39 | 0.25–0.58 |
| Weekend total | 2.10 | 2.24 | 3.11 | — |
| Weekday total | 2.43 | 2.49 | 3.35 | — |
| Quarter | Days | Avg census | Total HPRD | RN | LPN | CNA | Weekend | Contract % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q4 | 92 | 38.0 | 2.34 | 0.20 | 0.48 | 1.67 | 2.10 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q3 | 92 | 34.5 | 2.31 | 0.19 | 0.56 | 1.56 | 2.18 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q2 | 91 | 39.8 | 2.35 | 0.21 | 0.37 | 1.77 | 2.29 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q1 | 91 | 28.5 | 2.82 | 0.05 | 0.78 | 1.98 | 2.57 | 0.0% |
| Date | Type | Fine | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-02-20 | Payment Denial | — | CMS provider data |
| Survey | Type | Tag | Deficiency | Scope | Corrected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-30 | Health | F0554 | Allow residents to self-administer drugs if determined clinically appropriate. | D | 2025-11-13 |
| 2025-09-30 | Health | F0577 | Allow residents to easily view the nursing home's survey results and communicate with advocate agencies. | D | 2025-11-13 |
| 2025-09-30 | Health | F0605 | Prevent the use of unnecessary psychotropic medications or use medications that may restrain a resident's ability to function. | D | 2025-11-13 |
| 2025-09-30 | Health | F0628 | Provide the required documentation or notification related to the resident's needs, appeal rights, or bed-hold policies. | D | 2025-11-13 |
| 2025-09-30 | Health | F0645 | PASARR screening for Mental disorders or Intellectual Disabilities | D | 2025-11-13 |
| 2025-09-30 | Health | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | D | 2025-11-13 |
| 2025-09-30 | Health | F0686 | Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing. | D | 2025-11-13 |
| 2025-09-30 | Health | F0732 | Post nurse staffing information every day. | C | 2025-11-13 |
| 2025-09-30 | Health | F0761 | Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs. | D | 2025-11-13 |
| 2025-09-30 | Health | F0838 | Conduct and document a facility-wide assessment to determine what resources are necessary to care for residents competently during both day-to-day operations (including nights and weekends) and emergencies. | E | 2025-11-13 |
| 2025-09-30 | Health | F0851 | Electronically submit to CMS complete and accurate direct care staffing information, based on payroll and other verifiable and auditable data. | F | 2025-11-13 |
| 2025-09-30 | Health | F0868 | Have the Quality Assessment and Assurance group have the required members and meet at least quarterly | E | 2025-11-13 |
| 2025-09-30 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | E | 2025-11-13 |
| 2025-09-30 | Health | F0947 | Ensure nurse aides have the skills they need to care for residents, and give nurse aides education in dementia care and abuse prevention. | E | 2025-11-13 |
| 2024-10-17 | Health · complaint | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2024-11-30 |
| 2024-10-17 | Health · complaint | F0686 | Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing. | D | 2024-12-04 |
| 2024-02-20 | Health | F0580 | Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident. | D | 2024-04-06 |
| 2024-02-20 | Health | F0636 | Assess the resident completely in a timely manner when first admitted, and then periodically, at least every 12 months. | F | 2024-04-06 |
| 2024-02-20 | Health | F0637 | Assess the resident when there is a significant change in condition | E | 2024-04-06 |
| 2024-02-20 | Health | F0638 | Assure that each resident’s assessment is updated at least once every 3 months. | F | 2024-04-06 |
| 2024-02-20 | Health | F0640 | Encode each resident’s assessment data and transmit these data to the State within 7 days of assessment. | F | 2024-04-06 |
| 2024-02-20 | Health | F0641 | Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment. | E | 2024-04-06 |
| 2024-02-20 | Health | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | E | 2024-04-06 |
| 2024-02-20 | Health | F0677 | Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable. | D | 2024-04-06 |
| 2024-02-20 | Health | F0686 | Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing. | D | 2024-04-06 |
| 2024-02-20 | Health | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | E | 2024-04-06 |
| 2024-02-20 | Health | F0730 | Observe each nurse aide's job performance and give regular training. | E | 2024-04-06 |
| 2024-02-20 | Health · complaint | F0760 | Ensure that residents are free from significant medication errors. | G | 2024-04-06 |
| 2024-02-20 | Health | F0761 | Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs. | E | 2024-04-06 |
| 2024-02-20 | Health | F0801 | Employ sufficient staff with the appropriate competencies and skills sets to carry out the functions of the food and nutrition service, including a qualified dietician. | E | 2024-04-06 |
| 2024-02-20 | Health | F0847 | Inform resident or representatives choice to enter into binding arbitration agreement and right to refuse. | E | 2024-04-15 |
| 2024-02-20 | Health | F0851 | Electronically submit to CMS complete and accurate direct care staffing information, based on payroll and other verifiable and auditable data. | F | 2024-04-06 |
| 2024-02-20 | Health | F0865 | Have a plan that describes the process for conducting QAPI and QAA activities. | F | 2024-04-06 |
| 2024-02-20 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | F | 2024-04-06 |
| 2024-02-20 | Health | F0882 | Designate a qualified infection preventionist to be responsible for the infection prevent and control program in the nursing home. | E | 2024-04-06 |
| 2021-12-20 | Health | F0567 | Honor the resident's right to manage his or her financial affairs. | D | 2022-02-03 |
| 2021-12-20 | Health | F0577 | Allow residents to easily view the nursing home's survey results and communicate with advocate agencies. | C | 2022-02-03 |
| 2021-12-20 | Health | F0607 | Develop and implement policies and procedures to prevent abuse, neglect, and theft. | E | 2022-02-03 |
| 2021-12-20 | Health | F0609 | Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities. | D | 2022-02-03 |
| 2021-12-20 | Health | F0610 | Respond appropriately to all alleged violations. | D | 2022-02-03 |
| 2021-12-20 | Health | F0636 | Assess the resident completely in a timely manner when first admitted, and then periodically, at least every 12 months. | F | 2022-02-03 |
| 2021-12-20 | Health | F0638 | Assure that each resident’s assessment is updated at least once every 3 months. | F | 2022-02-03 |
| 2021-12-20 | Health | F0640 | Encode each resident’s assessment data and transmit these data to the State within 7 days of assessment. | F | 2022-02-03 |
| 2021-12-20 | Health | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | E | 2022-02-03 |
| 2021-12-20 | Health | F0658 | Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality. | E | 2022-02-03 |
| 2021-12-20 | Health | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | D | 2022-02-03 |
| 2021-12-20 | Health | F0697 | Provide safe, appropriate pain management for a resident who requires such services. | D | 2022-02-03 |
| 2021-12-20 | Health | F0700 | Try different approaches before using a bed rail. If a bed rail is needed, the facility must (1) assess a resident for safety risk; (2) review these risks and benefits with the resident/representative; (3) get informed consent; and (4) Correctly install and maintain the bed rail. | D | 2022-02-03 |
| 2021-12-20 | Health | F0727 | Have a registered nurse on duty 8 hours a day; and select a registered nurse to be the director of nurses on a full time basis. | E | 2022-02-03 |
| 2021-12-20 | Health | F0732 | Post nurse staffing information every day. | C | 2022-02-03 |
| 2021-12-20 | Health | F0838 | Conduct and document a facility-wide assessment to determine what resources are necessary to care for residents competently during both day-to-day operations (including nights and weekends) and emergencies. | E | 2022-02-03 |
| 2021-12-20 | Health | F0867 | Set up an ongoing quality assessment and assurance group to review quality deficiencies and develop corrective plans of action. | F | 2022-02-03 |
| 2021-12-20 | Health | F0868 | Have the Quality Assessment and Assurance group have the required members and meet at least quarterly | F | 2022-02-03 |
| 2021-12-20 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | E | 2022-02-03 |
| 2021-12-20 | Health | F0883 | Develop and implement policies and procedures for flu and pneumonia vaccinations. | C | 2022-02-03 |
| 2021-12-20 | Health | F0909 | Regularly inspect all bed frames, mattresses, and bed rails (if any) for safety; and all bed rails and mattresses must attach safely to the bed frame. | D | 2022-02-03 |
| Close | Facility | Price | $/bed | Cap rate | Beds | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-01 | AVENIR AT MAPLE GROVE | — | — | — | 90 | NBH2 MGOPCO LLC |
| 2025-10-01 | AVENIR AT MARK TWAIN | — | — | — | 120 | NBH1 MTOPCO LLC |
| 2025-10-01 | ARBOR HILLS CARE & REHAB CENTER | — | — | — | 150 | ARBOR HILLS HEALTHCARE, LLC |
| 2025-10-01 | ASCEND AT AURORA | — | — | — | 125 | NBH3 SFOPCO LLC |
| 2025-09-01 | HUBBLE CREEK | — | — | — | 105 | HUBBLE CREEK LLC |
| 2025-08-01 | HIDDEN LAKE HEALTH CARE CENTER | — | — | — | 67 | HIDDEN LAKE HEALTH CARE CENTER, LLC |
| 2025-05-01 | PINE GROVE MANOR | — | — | — | 77 | PINE GROVE MANOR LLC |
| 2025-05-01 | MONARCH SPRINGS WELLNESS & REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 119 | MONARCH SPRINGS WELLNESS & REHABILITATION LLC |
| 2025-05-01 | ASPIRE SENIOR LIVING NEW FLORENCE | — | — | — | 87 | ASPIRE SENIOR LIVING NEW FLORENCE LLC |
| 2025-04-01 | SOUTH COUNTY HEALTH CARE CENTER | — | — | — | 153 | SOUTH COUNTY HEALTH CARE CENTER, L.L.C. |
| 2025-02-01 | ARBOR VIEW NURSING AND REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 150 | FORREST OPCO LLC |
| 2025-02-01 | AMBERWOOD ESTATES NURSING AND REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 115 | ISLAND HC OPERATIONS LLC |
| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 29189 | acs median gross | 0 | $1,067 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 29189 | fmr | 0 | $955 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 29189 | acs median gross | 1 | $995 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 29189 | fmr | 1 | $995 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 29189 | acs median gross | 2 | $1,216 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 29189 | fmr | 2 | $1,218 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 29189 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,446 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 29189 | fmr | 3 | $1,568 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 29189 | acs median gross | 4 | $1,742 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 29189 | fmr | 4 | $1,812 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 29189 | acs median gross | 5 | $1,850 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 29189 | acs median gross | $1,209 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| county 29189 | acs recent mover gross | $1,369 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 63026 | acs median gross | 0 | $1,393 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 63026 | acs median gross | 1 | $773 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 63026 | acs median gross | 2 | $1,097 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 63026 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,324 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 63026 | acs median gross | 4 | $1,447 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 63026 | acs median gross | $1,135 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 63026 | acs recent mover gross | $1,260 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zip 63026 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $1,056 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 63026 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $864 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 63026 | safmr | 0 | $960 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 63026 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $1,100 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 63026 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $900 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 63026 | safmr | 1 | $1,000 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 63026 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $1,342 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 63026 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $1,098 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 63026 | safmr | 2 | $1,220 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 63026 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $1,727 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 63026 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $1,413 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 63026 | safmr | 3 | $1,570 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 63026 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $1,991 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 63026 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $1,629 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 63026 | safmr | 4 | $1,810 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |