Composite
— / 100 percentile
Screener / 125070
—
DANIEL K AKAKA STATE VETERANS HOME
snfHI
91-1204 KEALANANI AVE, KAPOLEI, HI 96707 · CCN 125070 · chain HAWAII HEALTH SYSTEMS CORPORATION
Peer group
— n = —
Evidence depth
—
Certified beds
0
Model
—
Unscored — below_component_floor. This facility is in scope and served with its evidence; a null composite means not measured, never low risk.
Score model0ML signals1Components3CHOW radar1Distress radar1Penalties0Deficiencies0Licensure0Ownership22Related party0Transactions0Comps8Market rent35
Composite explanation
0| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
1| Kind | Finding | Signal | Subject | First seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| connection | Owner spans multiple chains | 4 chains | PHARMACY CORPORATION OF AMERICA | 5 facilities |
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Component scores and registry models
3| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| chow risk | 45.0 | C | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| p adverse action 12m | 0.2 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 0.3 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
CHOW radar — 12-month sale probability
full board →p(CHOW, 12m)
0.3%
model v0.1 · computed 2026-07-29
Percentile among SNFs
46.8
100 = most likely to sell
Holdout AUC
0.874
evaluated before shipping, never refit
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| No PBJ staffing report | 1.00 | -3.61 | |
| Occupancy | 0.00 | +2.02 | |
| For-profit ownership | 0.00 | -1.24 | |
| Facility size (log beds) | 0.00 | +0.65 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.62 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 0.00 | +0.60 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 25.00 | +0.57 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 0.00 | +0.20 |
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Distress radar — 12-month termination probability
full board →p(termination, 12m)
0.2%
model v0.1 · computed 2026-07-29
Percentile among SNFs
61.0
100 = most likely to lose certification
Holdout AUC
0.971
top decile caught 95% of actual exits
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| No PBJ staffing report | 1.00 | -7.43 | |
| Occupancy | 0.00 | +3.15 | |
| For-profit ownership | 0.00 | +1.62 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 0.00 | +1.43 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 0.00 | +1.35 | |
| Facility size (log beds) | 0.00 | +0.90 | |
| Fine amount, 12m (log) | 0.00 | +0.18 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.12 |
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Penalties
0No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
0No deficiencies on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
22| Owner | Role | Pct | From | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HAWAII HEALTH SYSTEMS CORPORATION | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 100% | 2024-08-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| ARNOLD KOP | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2024-11-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| BRADLEY CHUN | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2024-08-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| BRANDON TOMITA | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2024-08-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| CHEREE WEE | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2024-11-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| CHEREE WEE | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2024-08-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| DANIEL CHEN | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2024-08-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| DEREK AKIYOSHI | CORPORATE OFFICER | — | 2024-08-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| HAWAII HEALTH SYSTEMS CORPORATION | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2025-08-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| HAWAII HOUSING FINANCE AND DEVELOPMENT CORPORATION | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2023-06-30 | current | pecos_ownership |
| KEN WALKER | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2024-07-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| LANI TSUNEISHI | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2024-08-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| MELANIE KELLY | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2024-08-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| MICHAEL HAMAMOTO | CORPORATE OFFICER | — | 2024-08-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| OHANA PACIFIC MANAGEMENT SERVICES, LLC | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2025-03-24 | current | pecos_ownership |
| OHANA PACIFIC MANAGEMENT SERVICES, LLC | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2024-08-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| OHANA PACIFIC OAHU SVH, LLC | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2024-08-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| OHANA PACIFIC OAHU SVH, LLC | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2025-03-24 | current | pecos_ownership |
| PHARMACY CORPORATION OF AMERICA | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2025-02-04 | current | pecos_ownership |
| RICHARD KISHABA | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2024-11-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| SEAN SANADA | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2024-08-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| WENDELL ODA | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2024-08-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Transactions
0No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Comparable trades — HI snf
8| Close | Facility | Price | $/bed | Cap rate | Beds | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-03-01 | HALE NANI REHABILITATION AND NURSING CENTER | — | — | — | 288 | HALE NANI REHAB & NURSING CENTER LLC |
| 2023-02-01 | PEARL CITY POST ACUTE | — | — | — | 122 | PSH PEARL CITY LLC |
| 2023-02-01 | Kulana Malama | — | — | — | 33 | PSH KM LLC |
| 2023-02-01 | OAHU CARE FACILITY | — | — | — | 82 | PSH OAHU LLC |
| 2020-12-18 | NUUANU HALE | — | — | — | 75 | NUUANU HALE, INC |
| 2019-12-31 | LEGACY HILO REHABILITATION & NURSING CENTER | — | — | — | 100 | HILO SNF LLC |
| 2017-07-01 | LANAI COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | — | — | — | 10 | MAUI HEALTH SYSTEM A KAISER FOUNDATION HOSPITALS LLC |
| 2017-07-01 | KULA HOSPITAL | — | — | — | 105 | MAUI HEALTH SYSTEM A KAISER FOUNDATION HOSPITALS LLC |
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
35| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 15003 | acs median gross | 0 | $1,458 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 15003 | fmr | 0 | $1,877 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 15003 | acs median gross | 1 | $1,605 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 15003 | fmr | 1 | $2,016 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 15003 | acs median gross | 2 | $2,086 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 15003 | fmr | 2 | $2,642 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 15003 | acs median gross | 3 | $2,948 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 15003 | fmr | 3 | $3,674 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 15003 | acs median gross | 4 | $3,443 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 15003 | fmr | 4 | $4,432 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 15003 | acs median gross | 5 | $3,057 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 15003 | acs median gross | $2,083 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| county 15003 | acs recent mover gross | $2,457 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 96707 | acs median gross | 1 | $1,305 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 96707 | acs median gross | 2 | $2,299 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 96707 | acs median gross | 3 | $3,370 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 96707 | acs median gross | 4 | $3,501 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 96707 | acs median gross | 5 | $1,208 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 96707 | acs median gross | $2,434 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 96707 | acs recent mover gross | $2,935 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zip 96707 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $2,530 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 96707 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $2,070 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 96707 | safmr | 0 | $2,300 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 96707 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $2,717 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 96707 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $2,223 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 96707 | safmr | 1 | $2,470 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 96707 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $3,564 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 96707 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $2,916 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 96707 | safmr | 2 | $3,240 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 96707 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $4,961 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 96707 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $4,059 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 96707 | safmr | 3 | $4,510 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 96707 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $5,984 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 96707 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $4,896 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 96707 | safmr | 4 | $5,440 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.