Reads as: riskier than 47.0% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
25
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+20.1 vs natl
DWD TX HOLDINGS LLC
65 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+20.1 vs natl
REG OPERATOR HOLDCO LLC
65 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+20.1 vs natl
REGENCY TEXAS HOLDINGS LLC
65 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
8 chains
REGENCY IHS REHAB LLC
68 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
8 chains
REGENCY IHS CLINICAL CONSULTING LLC
67 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
7 chains
CSV RHEA MANAGEMENT HOLDCO LLC
63 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
7 chains
CLAPP BARBARA
66 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
7 chains
REGENCY TEXAS HOLDINGS LLC
64 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
7 chains
REGENCY INTEGRATED HEALTH SERVICES LLC
67 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
7 chains
REG OPERATOR HOLDCO LLC
64 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
7 chains
DEKOWSKI DONOVAN
66 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
7 chains
MANDELBAUM ELLIOT
61 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
7 chains
DWD TX HOLDINGS LLC
64 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
7 chains
JACK AND NANCY DWYER WORKFORCE DEVELOPMENT CENTER INC
65 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
6 chains
CORTESE DAREN
59 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
6 chains
BAIRD DANIEL
59 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
6 chains
GIBSON PATRICIA
58 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
5 chains
REG HG OPCO LLC
40 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
46% fined
GIBSON PATRICIA
59 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
45% fined
REG HG OPCO 1 LLC
20 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
45% fined
CORTESE DAREN
60 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
45% fined
BAIRD DANIEL
60 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
43% fined
REGENCY TEXAS HOLDINGS LLC
65 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
43% fined
REG OPERATOR HOLDCO LLC
65 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
43% fined
DWD TX HOLDINGS LLC
65 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
TX median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
2.87
2.67
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.23
0.24
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.80
2.56
3.11
—
Weekday total
2.89
2.72
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
87.1
2.87
0.23
0.64
2.01
2.80
0.0%
2025Q3
92
83.4
2.89
0.25
0.62
2.02
2.87
0.0%
2025Q2
91
82.2
2.94
0.27
0.59
2.07
2.86
0.0%
2025Q1
90
84.5
2.94
0.34
0.56
2.04
2.87
0.0%
2024Q4
92
86.1
2.85
0.39
0.49
1.97
2.74
0.0%
2024Q3
92
84.9
2.83
0.32
0.54
1.98
2.71
0.0%
2024Q2
91
86.1
3.00
0.29
0.57
2.13
2.84
0.0%
2024Q1
91
85.6
2.96
0.27
0.56
2.13
2.86
0.0%
2023Q4
92
85.2
2.81
0.27
0.50
2.04
2.57
0.0%
2023Q3
92
84.3
2.63
0.30
0.46
1.87
2.42
0.0%
2023Q2
91
83.3
2.92
0.23
0.60
2.09
2.74
0.0%
2023Q1
90
76.9
2.87
0.16
0.70
2.00
2.77
0.0%
2022Q4
92
74.6
2.86
0.18
0.70
1.97
2.73
0.0%
2022Q3
92
73.6
2.83
0.17
0.66
1.99
2.75
0.0%
2022Q2
91
71.2
2.79
0.18
0.62
1.99
2.77
0.0%
2022Q1
90
63.1
2.63
0.19
0.66
1.77
2.77
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Ensure that residents are fully informed and understand their health status, care and treatments.
D
2025-11-21
2025-11-20
Health · complaint
F0726
Ensure that nurses and nurse aides have the appropriate competencies to care for every resident in a way that maximizes each resident's well being.
D
2025-11-21
2025-11-20
Health · complaint
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
D
2025-11-21
2025-09-10
Health
F0558
Reasonably accommodate the needs and preferences of each resident.
D
2025-09-12
2025-09-10
Health
F0578
Honor the resident's right to request, refuse, and/or discontinue treatment, to participate in or refuse to participate in experimental research, and to formulate an advance directive.
D
2025-09-12
2025-09-10
Health
F0628
Provide the required documentation or notification related to the resident's needs, appeal rights, or bed-hold policies.
D
2025-09-12
2025-09-10
Health
F0694
Provide for the safe, appropriate administration of IV fluids for a resident when needed.
D
2025-09-12
2025-09-10
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2025-09-12
2025-09-10
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2025-09-12
2024-11-04
Health · complaint
F0641
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
D
2024-11-08
2024-11-04
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
G
2024-11-08
2024-08-08
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2024-09-03
2024-08-08
Health
F0758
Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited.
E
2024-09-03
2024-06-20
Health · complaint
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2024-06-21
2024-06-20
Health · complaint
F0732
Post nurse staffing information every day.
C
2024-06-21
2023-05-18
Health
F0558
Reasonably accommodate the needs and preferences of each resident.
D
2023-05-19
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
46
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
STARR COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2015-02-28
current
pecos_ownership
2530 CENTRAL PALM DRIVE LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2015-02-28
current
pecos_ownership
BAIRD, DANIEL
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2021-04-13
current
pecos_ownership
CLAPP, BARBARA
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2021-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
CORTESE, DAREN
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2021-08-10
current
pecos_ownership
CSV RHEA MANAGEMENT HOLDCO, LLC
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2015-02-28
current
pecos_ownership
DEKOWSKI, DONOVAN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2015-02-28
current
pecos_ownership
DWD TX HOLDINGS LLC
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2015-02-28
current
pecos_ownership
GIBSON, PATRICIA
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2021-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
GONZALES, ANA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
GUERRA, ADRIAN
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2016-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
JACK AND NANCY DWYER WORKFORCE DEVELOPMENT CENTER INC
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2015-02-28
current
pecos_ownership
MANDELBAUM, ELLIOT
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
MARTINEZ, ARTURO
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
MUNOZ, THALIA
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
—
current
pecos_ownership
PENA, ALEGRIA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-07-29
current
pecos_ownership
PENA, ELISA
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2022-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
PENA, EMANUEL
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
REG HG OPCO 1, LLC
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2015-02-28
current
pecos_ownership
REG HG OPCO LLC
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2015-02-28
current
pecos_ownership
REG OPERATOR HOLDCO LLC
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2015-02-28
current
pecos_ownership
REGENCY IHS CLINICAL CONSULTING, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2015-02-28
current
pecos_ownership
REGENCY IHS MASTER TENANT LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2015-02-28
current
pecos_ownership
REGENCY IHS OF RIO GRANDE CITY LLC
—
—
2025-02-28
current
tx_hhsc_directory
REGENCY IHS OF RIO GRANDE CITY, LLC
DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2015-02-28
current
pecos_ownership
REGENCY IHS OF RIO GRANDE CITY, LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-02-28
current
pecos_ownership
REGENCY IHS REHAB LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2015-02-28
current
pecos_ownership
REGENCY INTEGRATED HEALTH SERVICES LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2015-02-28
current
pecos_ownership
REGENCY TEXAS HOLDINGS LLC
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2015-02-28
current
pecos_ownership
SALINAS, ARCADIO
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2024-09-17
current
pecos_ownership
STARR COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
—
—
2025-02-28
current
tx_hhsc_directory
STARR COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-14
current
pecos_ownership
THALIA MUNOZ
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
—
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ADRIAN GUERRA
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2016-05-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ALEGRIA PENA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-07-29
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ANA GONZALES
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ARCADIO SALINAS
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2024-09-17
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ARTURO MARTINEZ
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BARBARA CLAPP
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2021-06-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DANIEL BAIRD
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2021-04-13
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DAREN CORTESE
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2021-08-10
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DONOVAN DEKOWSKI
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2015-02-28
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ELISA PENA
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2022-05-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ELLIOT MANDELBAUM
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
EMANUEL PENA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PATRICIA GIBSON
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2021-08-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
0
No related-party cost years on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
32
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 48427
acs median gross
0
$468
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48427
fmr
0
$737
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48427
acs median gross
1
$421
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48427
fmr
1
$742
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48427
acs median gross
2
$701
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48427
fmr
2
$973
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48427
acs median gross
3
$872
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48427
fmr
3
$1,353
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48427
acs median gross
4
$889
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48427
fmr
4
$1,490
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48427
acs median gross
$726
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48427
acs recent mover gross
$826
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 78582
acs median gross
1
$429
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 78582
acs median gross
2
$718
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 78582
acs median gross
3
$913
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 78582
acs median gross
$747
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 78582
acs recent mover gross
$852
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 78582
payment standard 110
0
$814
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78582
payment standard 90
0
$666
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78582
safmr
0
$740
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78582
payment standard 110
1
$825
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78582
payment standard 90
1
$675
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78582
safmr
1
$750
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78582
payment standard 110
2
$1,078
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78582
payment standard 90
2
$882
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78582
safmr
2
$980
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78582
payment standard 110
3
$1,496
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78582
payment standard 90
3
$1,224
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78582
safmr
3
$1,360
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78582
payment standard 110
4
$1,650
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78582
payment standard 90
4
$1,350
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78582
safmr
4
$1,500
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.