Reads as: riskier than 28.2% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
AZ median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.08
3.53
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.70
0.43
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.94
3.35
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.13
3.62
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
66.8
3.08
0.70
0.47
1.91
2.94
0.0%
2025Q3
92
65.0
3.09
0.78
0.46
1.85
2.91
0.0%
2025Q2
91
65.5
3.08
0.75
0.44
1.89
2.97
0.0%
2025Q1
90
67.0
3.02
0.59
0.53
1.90
2.92
0.0%
2024Q4
92
67.0
2.09
0.68
0.43
0.98
2.04
0.0%
2024Q3
92
62.4
2.29
0.62
0.49
1.18
2.16
0.0%
2024Q2
91
64.9
2.24
0.62
0.43
1.19
2.12
0.0%
2024Q1
91
62.9
2.29
0.66
0.54
1.09
2.30
0.0%
2023Q4
92
63.8
2.30
0.66
0.43
1.22
2.38
0.0%
2023Q3
92
63.6
2.59
0.78
0.28
1.53
2.60
0.0%
2023Q2
91
63.4
2.69
0.77
0.30
1.62
2.75
0.0%
2023Q1
90
66.6
2.60
0.69
0.33
1.58
2.44
0.0%
2022Q4
92
65.3
2.44
0.63
0.36
1.45
2.27
0.0%
2022Q3
92
63.2
2.43
0.68
0.28
1.48
2.33
0.0%
2022Q2
91
60.0
2.15
0.66
0.41
1.08
2.05
0.0%
2022Q1
90
64.7
1.97
0.51
0.58
0.88
1.87
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
9
D × 8E × 1
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2026-02-27
Health
F0578
Honor the resident's right to request, refuse, and/or discontinue treatment, to participate in or refuse to participate in experimental research, and to formulate an advance directive.
D
2026-03-10
2026-02-27
Health
F0580
Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident.
D
2026-03-10
2026-02-27
Health · complaint
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
D
2026-03-10
2026-02-27
Health
F0645
PASARR screening for Mental disorders or Intellectual Disabilities
D
2026-03-10
2026-02-27
Health
F0757
Ensure each resident’s drug regimen must be free from unnecessary drugs.
E
2026-03-10
2026-02-27
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
D
2026-03-10
2025-05-29
Health · complaint
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
D
2025-06-20
2025-05-01
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2025-06-13
2025-04-15
Health · complaint
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
D
2025-05-31
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
46
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
GLOBE REAL ESTATE INVESTORS
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2024-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
GLOBE REAL ESTATE INVESTORS
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2023-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
BUTNER, NANCY
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2018-09-16
current
pecos_ownership
CROSS, CINDY
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2004-10-13
current
pecos_ownership
FLETCHER, TODD
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
FRANCO, MARK
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-09-12
current
pecos_ownership
HENRY, TERRY
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2004-10-13
current
pecos_ownership
LAY, LISA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2017-04-24
current
pecos_ownership
LAYTON, BRENT
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-02-25
current
pecos_ownership
LAYTON, BRENT
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
—
current
pecos_ownership
LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA, INC.
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2006-02-17
current
pecos_ownership
LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA, INC.
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2005-01-18
current
pecos_ownership
PRESTON, AUBREY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-03-06
current
pecos_ownership
PRESTON, FORREST
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2004-09-30
current
pecos_ownership
PRESTON, FORREST
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2005-01-18
current
pecos_ownership
SMITH, FRANK
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-06-19
current
pecos_ownership
SUMMERHAYS, TIMOTHY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-11-05
current
pecos_ownership
SUMMERHAYS, TIMOTHY
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-06-09
current
pecos_ownership
SWANKER, RICHARD
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
THURMOND, JOAN
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2004-10-13
current
pecos_ownership
WILLIAMS, KATHY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
1996-10-10
current
pecos_ownership
ZIEGLER, JAMES
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2006-02-17
current
pecos_ownership
CONSTRUCTION ENTERPRISES
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2022-01-01
ended 2022-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
CONSTRUCTION ENTERPRISES
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2021-01-01
ended 2021-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
FORREST PRESTON
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2004-09-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
GLOBE REAL ESTATE INV.
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2020-01-01
ended 2020-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA, INC.
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2004-09-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SPOKANE MEDICAL INVESTORS LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2021-01-01
ended 2021-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
SPOKANE MEDICAL INVESTORS LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2022-01-01
ended 2022-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
CINDY CROSS
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2004-10-13
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOAN THURMOND
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2004-10-13
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TERRY HENRY
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2004-10-13
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
AUBREY PRESTON
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-03-06
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BRENT LAYTON
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
—
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BRENT LAYTON
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-02-25
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
FORREST PRESTON
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2005-01-18
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
FRANK SMITH
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-06-19
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JAMES ZIEGLER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2006-02-17
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KATHY WILLIAMS
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
1996-10-10
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LISA LAY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2017-04-24
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARK FRANCO
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-09-12
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
NANCY BUTNER
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2018-09-16
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RICHARD SWANKER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TIMOTHY SUMMERHAYS
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-06-09
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TIMOTHY SUMMERHAYS
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-11-05
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TODD FLETCHER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-05-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$1,056,598
$638
—
—
$468,800
6
propco
2023-12-31
$895,745
$1,289
—
—
$444,361
6
propco
2022-12-31
$894,767
$1,444
—
—
$422,861
8
propco
2021-12-31
$1,014,605
$50,462
—
—
$491,106
8
propco
2020-12-31
$1,182,004
$59,914
—
—
—
5
propco
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
34
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 04007
acs median gross
0
$958
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 04007
fmr
0
$1,120
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 04007
acs median gross
1
$827
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 04007
fmr
1
$1,127
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 04007
acs median gross
2
$1,125
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 04007
fmr
2
$1,479
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 04007
acs median gross
3
$1,041
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 04007
fmr
3
$1,871
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 04007
acs median gross
4
$1,269
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 04007
fmr
4
$2,170
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 04007
acs median gross
5
$1,300
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 04007
acs median gross
$1,030
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 04007
acs recent mover gross
$706
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 85501
acs median gross
1
$882
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 85501
acs median gross
2
$735
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 85501
acs median gross
3
$961
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 85501
acs median gross
4
$870
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 85501
acs median gross
$903
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 85501
acs recent mover gross
$631
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 85501
payment standard 110
0
$1,078
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85501
payment standard 90
0
$882
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85501
safmr
0
$980
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85501
payment standard 110
1
$1,078
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85501
payment standard 90
1
$882
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85501
safmr
1
$980
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85501
payment standard 110
2
$1,419
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85501
payment standard 90
2
$1,161
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85501
safmr
2
$1,290
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85501
payment standard 110
3
$1,914
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85501
payment standard 90
3
$1,566
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85501
safmr
3
$1,740
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85501
payment standard 110
4
$2,079
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85501
payment standard 90
4
$1,701
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85501
safmr
4
$1,890
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.