Composite
53.7 / 100 percentile
| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| regulatory risk | 95.3 | 93.5 | 0.30 | 0.4286 | 40.84 | in index |
| chow risk | 25.2 | 25.0 | 0.15 | 0.2143 | 5.40 | in index |
| staffing risk | 9.7 | 9.8 | 0.25 | 0.3571 | 3.46 | in index |
| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| chow risk | 25.0 | B | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| p adverse action 12m | 11.8 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 0.3 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
| regulatory risk | 93.5 | F | v0.3 | default · in composite | Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos. |
| staffing risk | 9.8 | A | v0.3 | default · in composite | Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS. |
| regulatory risk | 93.5 | F | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 93.5 | F | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 9.8 | A | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 9.8 | A | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| For-profit ownership | 0.00 | -1.24 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.62 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 25.00 | +0.57 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.42 | |
| Chain size (log) | 0.00 | -0.40 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 4.39 | -0.27 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 0.00 | +0.20 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 0.00 | -0.17 |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| For-profit ownership | 0.00 | +1.62 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 0.00 | +1.43 | |
| Chain size (log) | 0.00 | +1.20 | |
| Staffing trend, last 4 quarters | 1.72 | +0.77 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 4.39 | -0.49 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.39 | |
| Occupancy | 0.67 | +0.33 | |
| Fine amount, 12m (log) | 0.00 | +0.18 |
| 2025Q4 HPRD | This facility | AZ median | National median | National p25–p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total nurse | 4.39 | 3.53 | 3.28 | 2.90–3.77 |
| RN | 0.42 | 0.43 | 0.39 | 0.25–0.58 |
| Weekend total | 3.65 | 3.35 | 3.11 | — |
| Weekday total | 4.68 | 3.62 | 3.35 | — |
| Quarter | Days | Avg census | Total HPRD | RN | LPN | CNA | Weekend | Contract % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q4 | 92 | 53.7 | 4.39 | 0.42 | 0.79 | 3.18 | 3.65 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q3 | 92 | 52.2 | 4.38 | 0.54 | 0.51 | 3.33 | 3.50 | 21.3% |
| 2025Q2 | 91 | 48.4 | 4.42 | 0.35 | 1.04 | 3.03 | 3.61 | 22.3% |
| 2024Q4 | 92 | 54.5 | 2.67 | 0.23 | 0.56 | 1.88 | 2.57 | 33.6% |
| 2024Q3 | 92 | 52.8 | 2.71 | 0.17 | 0.58 | 1.96 | 2.57 | 34.8% |
| 2024Q2 | 91 | 57.0 | 2.44 | 0.11 | 0.61 | 1.73 | 2.28 | 29.9% |
| 2024Q1 | 91 | 57.9 | 2.24 | 0.09 | 0.69 | 1.46 | 2.11 | 18.2% |
| 2023Q4 | 92 | 54.0 | 2.39 | 0.20 | 0.63 | 1.56 | 2.26 | 15.5% |
| 2023Q3 | 92 | 48.8 | 2.73 | 0.27 | 0.69 | 1.77 | 2.65 | 20.4% |
| 2023Q2 | 91 | 48.8 | 2.93 | 0.18 | 0.67 | 2.08 | 2.77 | 29.0% |
| 2023Q1 | 90 | 48.6 | 2.81 | 0.19 | 0.72 | 1.90 | 2.62 | 19.9% |
| 2022Q3 | 92 | 51.4 | 2.65 | 0.21 | 0.64 | 1.81 | 2.68 | 26.5% |
| 2022Q2 | 91 | 54.9 | 2.39 | 0.11 | 0.52 | 1.76 | 2.38 | 19.2% |
| Date | Type | Fine | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-25 | Payment Denial | — | CMS provider data |
| 2024-09-27 | Fine | $67,074 | CMS provider data |
| 2023-09-15 | Fine | $60,560 | CMS provider data |
| 2023-09-15 | Payment Denial | — | CMS provider data |
| Survey | Type | Tag | Deficiency | Scope | Corrected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-25 | Health · complaint | F0580 | Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident. | D | 2025-11-20 |
| 2025-07-25 | Health · complaint | F0609 | Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities. | D | 2025-11-20 |
| 2025-07-25 | Health · complaint | F0610 | Respond appropriately to all alleged violations. | D | 2025-11-20 |
| 2025-07-25 | Health | F0627 | Ensure the transfer/discharge meets the resident's needs/preferences and that the resident is prepared for a safe transfer/discharge. | D | 2025-11-20 |
| 2025-07-25 | Health · complaint | F0640 | Encode each resident’s assessment data and transmit these data to the State within 7 days of assessment. | D | 2025-11-20 |
| 2025-07-25 | Health | F0641 | Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment. | D | 2025-11-20 |
| 2025-07-25 | Health · complaint | F0657 | Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals. | D | 2025-11-20 |
| 2025-07-25 | Health · complaint | F0700 | Try different approaches before using a bed rail. If a bed rail is needed, the facility must (1) assess a resident for safety risk; (2) review these risks and benefits with the resident/representative; (3) get informed consent; and (4) Correctly install and maintain the bed rail. | F | 2026-01-23 |
| 2025-07-25 | Health | F0727 | Have a registered nurse on duty 8 hours a day; and select a registered nurse to be the director of nurses on a full time basis. | D | 2025-11-20 |
| 2025-07-25 | Health | F0757 | Ensure each resident’s drug regimen must be free from unnecessary drugs. | D | 2025-11-20 |
| 2025-07-25 | Health | F0842 | Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards. | D | 2025-11-20 |
| 2025-07-25 | Health | F0851 | Electronically submit to CMS complete and accurate direct care staffing information, based on payroll and other verifiable and auditable data. | F | 2025-11-20 |
| 2025-07-25 | Health | F0868 | Have the Quality Assessment and Assurance group have the required members and meet at least quarterly | D | 2025-11-20 |
| 2025-07-25 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | D | 2025-11-20 |
| 2025-07-25 | Health | F0883 | Develop and implement policies and procedures for flu and pneumonia vaccinations. | D | 2026-01-23 |
| 2025-07-25 | Health | F0946 | Provide training in compliance and ethics. | D | 2025-11-20 |
| 2025-07-25 | Health | F0947 | Ensure nurse aides have the skills they need to care for residents, and give nurse aides education in dementia care and abuse prevention. | E | 2026-01-23 |
| 2024-09-27 | Health | F0550 | Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights. | D | 2024-10-28 |
| 2024-09-27 | Health · complaint | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | G | 2024-10-28 |
| 2024-09-27 | Health · complaint | F0606 | Not hire anyone with a finding of abuse, neglect, exploitation, or theft. | D | 2024-10-28 |
| 2024-09-27 | Health · complaint | F0609 | Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities. | D | 2024-10-28 |
| 2024-09-27 | Health · complaint | F0623 | Provide timely notification to the resident, and if applicable to the resident representative and ombudsman, before transfer or discharge, including appeal rights. | E | 2024-10-28 |
| 2024-09-27 | Health | F0625 | Notify the resident or the resident’s representative in writing how long the nursing home will hold the resident’s bed in cases of transfer to a hospital or therapeutic leave. | E | 2024-10-28 |
| 2024-09-27 | Health | F0640 | Encode each resident’s assessment data and transmit these data to the State within 7 days of assessment. | D | 2024-10-28 |
| 2024-09-27 | Health | F0641 | Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment. | E | 2024-10-28 |
| 2024-09-27 | Health | F0644 | Coordinate assessments with the pre-admission screening and resident review program; and referring for services as needed. | D | 2024-10-28 |
| 2024-09-27 | Health | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | E | 2024-10-28 |
| 2024-09-27 | Health | F0657 | Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals. | D | 2024-10-10 |
| 2024-09-27 | Health · complaint | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | E | 2024-10-28 |
| 2024-09-27 | Health | F0686 | Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing. | D | 2024-10-28 |
| 2024-09-27 | Health · complaint | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | H | 2024-10-28 |
| 2024-09-27 | Health | F0690 | Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections. | D | 2024-10-28 |
| 2024-09-27 | Health · complaint | F0712 | Ensure that the resident and his/her doctor meet face-to-face at all required visits. | D | 2024-10-28 |
| 2024-09-27 | Health · complaint | F0725 | Provide enough nursing staff every day to meet the needs of every resident; and have a licensed nurse in charge on each shift. | E | 2024-10-28 |
| 2024-09-27 | Health · complaint | F0726 | Ensure that nurses and nurse aides have the appropriate competencies to care for every resident in a way that maximizes each resident's well being. | E | 2024-10-28 |
| 2024-09-27 | Health | F0757 | Ensure each resident’s drug regimen must be free from unnecessary drugs. | D | 2024-10-28 |
| 2024-09-27 | Health | F0791 | Provide or obtain dental services for each resident. | E | 2025-02-28 |
| 2024-09-27 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | E | 2024-10-28 |
| 2024-09-27 | Health | F0838 | Conduct and document a facility-wide assessment to determine what resources are necessary to care for residents competently during both day-to-day operations (including nights and weekends) and emergencies. | D | 2024-10-28 |
| 2024-09-27 | Health · complaint | F0867 | Set up an ongoing quality assessment and assurance group to review quality deficiencies and develop corrective plans of action. | F | 2024-10-28 |
| 2024-09-27 | Health · complaint | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | D | 2024-10-28 |
| 2024-09-27 | Health | F0944 | Conduct mandatory training, for all staff, on the facility’s Quality Assurance and Performance Improvement Program. | E | 2024-10-28 |
| 2024-09-27 | Health · complaint | F0947 | Ensure nurse aides have the skills they need to care for residents, and give nurse aides education in dementia care and abuse prevention. | E | 2024-10-28 |
| 2024-01-11 | Health · complaint | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | F | 2024-02-01 |
| 2023-09-15 | Health | F0583 | Keep residents' personal and medical records private and confidential. | D | 2023-11-17 |
| 2023-09-15 | Health · complaint | F0602 | Protect each resident from the wrongful use of the resident's belongings or money. | D | 2023-11-17 |
| 2023-09-15 | Health · complaint | F0609 | Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities. | E | 2023-11-17 |
| 2023-09-15 | Health · complaint | F0610 | Respond appropriately to all alleged violations. | E | 2023-11-17 |
| 2023-09-15 | Health | F0623 | Provide timely notification to the resident, and if applicable to the resident representative and ombudsman, before transfer or discharge, including appeal rights. | E | 2023-11-17 |
| 2023-09-15 | Health | F0625 | Notify the resident or the resident’s representative in writing how long the nursing home will hold the resident’s bed in cases of transfer to a hospital or therapeutic leave. | E | 2023-11-17 |
| 2023-09-15 | Health | F0637 | Assess the resident when there is a significant change in condition | D | 2023-11-17 |
| 2023-09-15 | Health | F0640 | Encode each resident’s assessment data and transmit these data to the State within 7 days of assessment. | D | 2023-11-17 |
| 2023-09-15 | Health | F0641 | Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment. | E | 2023-11-17 |
| 2023-09-15 | Health | F0655 | Create and put into place a plan for meeting the resident's most immediate needs within 48 hours of being admitted | D | 2023-11-17 |
| 2023-09-15 | Health · complaint | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | D | 2023-11-17 |
| 2023-09-15 | Health · complaint | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | K | 2023-11-17 |
| 2023-09-15 | Health | F0692 | Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health. | D | 2023-11-17 |
| 2023-09-15 | Health | F0727 | Have a registered nurse on duty 8 hours a day; and select a registered nurse to be the director of nurses on a full time basis. | F | 2024-01-01 |
| 2023-09-15 | Health | F0758 | Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited. | D | 2023-11-17 |
| 2023-09-15 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | F | 2023-11-17 |
| 2023-09-15 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | F | 2023-11-17 |
| 2023-09-15 | Health | F0881 | Implement a program that monitors antibiotic use. | F | 2023-11-17 |
| 2023-09-15 | Health | F0895 | Have a Compliance and Ethics Program. | F | 2023-11-17 |
| 2023-09-15 | Health · complaint | F0947 | Ensure nurse aides have the skills they need to care for residents, and give nurse aides education in dementia care and abuse prevention. | E | 2023-11-17 |
| Close | Facility | Price | $/bed | Cap rate | Beds | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-01 | Springdale Village Post Acute | — | — | — | 122 | ONE HOPE HEALTHCARE LLC |
| 2025-03-01 | Citrus Heights Respiratory and Rehabilitation | — | — | — | 204 | SALT CREEK HEALTHCARE LLC |
| 2024-11-20 | Prescott Valley Nursing & Rehabilitation | — | — | — | 58 | PRESCOTT VALLEY NURSING & REHABILITATION LLC |
| 2024-11-19 | Prescott Village Nursing & Rehabilitation | — | — | — | 58 | PRESCOTT VILLAGE NURSING & REHABILITATION LLC |
| 2024-11-18 | QUIBURI MISSION NURSING & REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 60 | QUIBURI MISSION NURSING & REHABILITATION LLC |
| 2024-09-26 | THE REHABILITATION CENTER AT THE PALAZZO | — | — | — | 60 | APHZ LLC |
| 2024-06-01 | Wellsprings of Gilbert | — | — | — | 32 | HARBOR MESA HEALTHCARE LLC |
| 2024-05-01 | RIVER PARK POST ACUTE | — | — | — | 66 | MURIEL HEALTHCARE LLC |
| 2023-09-01 | Ahwatukee Post Acute | — | — | — | 192 | LA ESTANCIA SNF HEALTHCARE LLC |
| 2023-09-01 | Sun City Post Acute | — | — | — | 118 | SUN CITY SNF HEALTHCARE LLC |
| 2023-09-01 | REHAB AT SCOTTSDALE VILLAGE SQUARE | — | — | — | 141 | SCOTTSDALE AZ OPCO LLC |
| 2023-09-01 | SANDRIDGE POST ACUTE | — | — | — | 191 | MESA ARIZONA SNF HEALTHCARE LLC |
| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 04001 | acs median gross | 0 | $571 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 04001 | fmr | 0 | $810 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 04001 | acs median gross | 1 | $475 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 04001 | fmr | 1 | $903 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 04001 | acs median gross | 2 | $571 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 04001 | fmr | 2 | $1,175 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 04001 | acs median gross | 3 | $809 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 04001 | fmr | 3 | $1,599 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 04001 | acs median gross | 4 | $728 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 04001 | fmr | 4 | $1,828 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 04001 | acs median gross | 5 | $480 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 04001 | acs median gross | $647 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| county 04001 | acs recent mover gross | $470 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 86503 | acs median gross | 0 | $563 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 86503 | acs median gross | 1 | $564 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 86503 | acs median gross | 2 | $552 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 86503 | acs median gross | 3 | $743 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 86503 | acs median gross | $581 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zip 86503 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $990 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 86503 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $810 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 86503 | safmr | 0 | $900 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 86503 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $1,045 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 86503 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $855 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 86503 | safmr | 1 | $950 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 86503 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $1,375 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 86503 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $1,125 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 86503 | safmr | 2 | $1,250 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 86503 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $1,694 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 86503 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $1,386 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 86503 | safmr | 3 | $1,540 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 86503 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $1,826 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 86503 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $1,494 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 86503 | safmr | 4 | $1,660 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |