14703 EAGLE VISTA DRIVE BLDG 601B, HOUSTON, TX 77077 · CCN 676336 · chain OAK INVESTMENT TRUST II
Composite
55.6 / 100 percentile
Peer group
snf n = 14,684
Evidence depth
deep
Certified beds
44
Model
v1.2
Reads as: riskier than 55.6% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
TX median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
4.35
2.67
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.72
0.24
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
4.24
2.56
3.11
—
Weekday total
4.39
2.72
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
40.2
4.35
0.72
1.02
2.61
4.24
0.0%
2025Q3
92
42.1
4.24
0.73
0.94
2.56
4.09
0.6%
2025Q2
91
42.0
4.22
0.66
1.04
2.52
4.05
6.0%
2025Q1
90
42.0
3.98
0.78
0.84
2.36
3.92
4.1%
2024Q4
92
40.4
4.31
0.84
0.81
2.66
4.25
3.0%
2024Q3
92
38.9
4.44
0.71
1.03
2.70
4.29
5.1%
2024Q2
91
38.8
4.72
0.73
1.16
2.83
4.54
2.1%
2024Q1
91
37.7
4.66
0.69
1.16
2.82
4.45
4.6%
2023Q4
92
35.2
4.59
0.61
1.20
2.79
4.54
3.4%
2023Q3
92
35.0
4.71
0.56
1.21
2.94
4.56
0.7%
2023Q2
91
34.9
4.58
0.58
1.16
2.84
4.35
0.0%
2023Q1
90
38.9
4.11
0.39
1.13
2.59
3.98
3.5%
2022Q4
92
41.6
4.06
0.28
1.28
2.49
3.90
4.9%
2022Q3
92
42.1
3.85
0.59
0.90
2.35
3.71
0.9%
2022Q2
91
37.6
4.36
0.74
0.93
2.69
4.24
0.0%
2022Q1
90
35.6
4.86
0.95
0.98
2.92
4.67
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections.
D
2024-09-18
2024-08-15
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2024-09-18
2024-08-15
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2024-09-18
2024-08-15
Health
F0814
Dispose of garbage and refuse properly.
E
2024-09-18
2024-08-15
Health · complaint
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2024-09-18
2023-11-17
Health · complaint
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
K
2023-08-07
2023-11-17
Health · complaint
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
K
2023-11-04
2023-06-16
Health
F0814
Dispose of garbage and refuse properly.
D
2023-07-18
2022-05-12
Health
F0758
Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited.
E
2022-06-14
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
66
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
NATIONAL SENIOR COMMUNITIES, INC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2021-01-14
current
pecos_ownership
BISON, MICHAEL
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-17
current
pecos_ownership
BROWN, IAN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2023-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
BROWN, PATRICIA
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2022-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
BUCK, KAREN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-06-02
current
pecos_ownership
BUTLER, RICHARD
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2014-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
CLUPPER, KATHERINE
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
COLINS, MARY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2018-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
COLINS, MARY
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2019-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
EAGLE'S TRACE, INC
—
—
2025-05-15
current
tx_hhsc_directory
EMBLEY, MARK
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2022-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
ERICKSON LIVING MANAGEMENT, LLC
—
—
2025-05-15
current
tx_hhsc_directory
ERICKSON SENIOR LIVING LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2020-11-23
current
pecos_ownership
ERICKSON SENIOR LIVING LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-23
current
pecos_ownership
ERSTAD, EILEEN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2018-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
GANTERT, NEAL
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
HALL, JOHN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
JACQUE, ZINA
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2013-05-15
current
pecos_ownership
LEONARD, MONTY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2022-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
MOSCATO, MARY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
OAK INVESTMENT TRUST
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
OAK INVESTMENT TRUST II
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
PAULK, PAMELA
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2022-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
PAULK, PAMELA
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2025-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
POMERANZ, WILLIAM
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2025-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
REEL, STEPHANIE
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2018-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
RIDLEY, FRED
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-22
current
pecos_ownership
ROSKIEWICZ, MICHAEL
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2019-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
ROSKIEWICZ, MICHAEL
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2025-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
SAWICKI, SCOTT
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
SHARP, RUSSEL
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2023-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
SONES, RANDALL
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-22
current
pecos_ownership
STINER, PAMELA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
SWEETSER, CHRISTIAN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
TREMAINE, BRIAN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-23
current
pecos_ownership
TREMAINE, BRIAN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2011-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
TYLER, DANIEL
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2025-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
WALLICK, DANIEL
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2025-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
BRIAN TREMAINE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-23
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BRIAN TREMAINE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2011-11-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHRISTIAN SWEETSER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-03-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DANIEL TYLER
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2025-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DANIEL WALLICK
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2025-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
EILEEN ERSTAD
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2018-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
IAN BROWN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2023-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOHN HALL
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KAREN BUCK
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-06-02
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KATHERINE CLUPPER
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARK EMBLEY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARY COLINS
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2019-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARY COLINS
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2018-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARY MOSCATO
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MICHAEL ROSKIEWICZ
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2019-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MICHAEL ROSKIEWICZ
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2025-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MONTY LEONARD
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2022-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
NEAL GANTERT
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PAMELA PAULK
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2022-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PAMELA PAULK
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2025-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PAMELA STINER
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PATRICIA BROWN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2022-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RICHARD BUTLER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2014-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RUSSEL SHARP
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2023-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SCOTT SAWICKI
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
STEPHANIE REEL
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2018-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
WILLIAM POMERANZ
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2025-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ZINA JACQUE
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2013-05-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$4,012,409
—
$4,012,409
—
—
1
—
2023-12-31
$3,353,534
—
$3,353,534
—
—
1
—
2022-12-31
$3,190,859
—
$3,190,859
—
—
1
—
2021-12-31
$2,692,878
—
$2,692,878
—
—
1
—
2020-12-31
$2,477,991
—
$2,477,991
—
—
1
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
36
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 48201
acs median gross
0
$1,177
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48201
fmr
0
$1,280
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48201
acs median gross
1
$1,196
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48201
fmr
1
$1,323
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48201
acs median gross
2
$1,425
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48201
fmr
2
$1,573
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48201
acs median gross
3
$1,764
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48201
fmr
3
$2,116
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48201
acs median gross
4
$2,148
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48201
fmr
4
$2,639
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48201
acs median gross
5
$2,339
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48201
acs median gross
$1,401
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48201
acs recent mover gross
$1,495
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 77077
acs median gross
0
$1,198
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 77077
acs median gross
1
$1,271
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 77077
acs median gross
2
$1,668
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 77077
acs median gross
3
$2,122
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 77077
acs median gross
4
$2,661
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 77077
acs median gross
5
$3,481
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 77077
acs median gross
$1,430
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 77077
acs recent mover gross
$1,439
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 77077
payment standard 110
0
$1,716
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77077
payment standard 90
0
$1,404
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77077
safmr
0
$1,560
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77077
payment standard 110
1
$1,771
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77077
payment standard 90
1
$1,449
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77077
safmr
1
$1,610
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77077
payment standard 110
2
$2,112
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77077
payment standard 90
2
$1,728
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77077
safmr
2
$1,920
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77077
payment standard 110
3
$2,838
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77077
payment standard 90
3
$2,322
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77077
safmr
3
$2,580
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77077
payment standard 110
4
$3,542
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77077
payment standard 90
4
$2,898
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77077
safmr
4
$3,220
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.