1306 WEST MAIN STREET, JEFFERSON CITY, MO 65109 · CCN 265837 · chain 10 26 NATIONWIDE TR
Composite
33.7 / 100 percentile
Peer group
snf n = 14,684
Evidence depth
deep
Certified beds
69
Model
v1.2
Reads as: riskier than 33.7% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
MO median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.60
2.41
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.33
0.25
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.43
2.24
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.67
2.49
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
58.4
3.60
0.33
0.91
2.35
3.43
2.9%
2025Q3
92
60.5
3.57
0.27
0.93
2.37
3.39
0.2%
2025Q2
91
58.6
3.77
0.37
0.90
2.49
3.56
0.0%
2025Q1
90
56.8
4.07
0.48
1.00
2.59
3.68
0.0%
2024Q4
92
56.7
4.17
0.46
0.98
2.72
3.80
1.8%
2024Q3
92
54.5
3.98
0.60
0.84
2.53
3.68
3.4%
2024Q2
91
56.0
3.77
0.56
0.78
2.42
3.60
3.9%
2024Q1
91
56.6
3.69
0.52
0.75
2.43
3.37
1.2%
2023Q4
92
55.5
3.71
0.60
0.76
2.35
3.53
2.4%
2023Q3
92
57.5
3.54
0.55
0.85
2.14
3.22
1.3%
2023Q2
91
57.1
3.26
0.65
0.67
1.94
2.73
10.6%
2023Q1
90
53.2
2.97
0.62
0.69
1.67
2.57
12.4%
2022Q4
92
50.6
4.20
0.58
1.34
2.28
3.67
0.9%
2022Q3
92
47.1
3.34
0.23
1.08
2.03
3.21
14.0%
2022Q2
91
47.8
3.41
0.36
0.97
2.07
3.33
17.1%
2022Q1
90
42.4
1.52
0.26
0.45
0.81
1.64
8.4%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
24
B × 1C × 2D × 8E × 12F × 1
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2025-06-06
Health · complaint
F0839
Employ staff that are licensed, certified, or registered in accordance with state laws.
D
2025-07-17
2024-12-20
Health · complaint
F0585
Honor the resident's right to voice grievances without discrimination or reprisal and the facility must establish a grievance policy and make prompt efforts to resolve grievances.
D
2025-02-02
2024-12-20
Health · complaint
F0620
Not require residents to give up Medicare or Medicaid benefits, or pay privately as a condition of admission; and must tell residents what care they do not provide.
D
2025-02-02
2024-10-18
Health
F0583
Keep residents' personal and medical records private and confidential.
D
2024-12-04
2024-10-18
Health
F0658
Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality.
E
2024-12-04
2024-10-18
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
E
2024-12-04
2024-06-03
Health · complaint
F0658
Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality.
D
2024-07-11
2024-02-27
Health · complaint
F0580
Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident.
D
2024-04-05
2023-07-20
Health
F0607
Develop and implement policies and procedures to prevent abuse, neglect, and theft.
E
2023-08-31
2023-07-20
Health · complaint
F0622
Not transfer or discharge a resident without an adequate reason; and must provide documentation and convey specific information when a resident is transferred or discharged.
D
2023-08-31
2023-07-20
Health
F0623
Provide timely notification to the resident, and if applicable to the resident representative and ombudsman, before transfer or discharge, including appeal rights.
E
2023-08-31
2023-07-20
Health
F0625
Notify the resident or the resident’s representative in writing how long the nursing home will hold the resident’s bed in cases of transfer to a hospital or therapeutic leave.
B
2023-08-31
2023-07-20
Health
F0679
Provide activities to meet all resident's needs.
D
2023-08-31
2023-07-20
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
E
2023-08-31
2023-07-20
Health
F0700
Try different approaches before using a bed rail. If a bed rail is needed, the facility must (1) assess a resident for safety risk; (2) review these risks and benefits with the resident/representative; (3) get informed consent; and (4) Correctly install and maintain the bed rail.
E
2023-08-31
2023-07-20
Health
F0732
Post nurse staffing information every day.
C
2023-08-31
2023-07-20
Health
F0756
Ensure a licensed pharmacist perform a monthly drug regimen review, including the medical chart, following irregularity reporting guidelines in developed policies and procedures.
E
2023-08-31
2023-07-20
Health
F0758
Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited.
E
2023-08-31
2023-07-20
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
E
2023-08-31
2023-07-20
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2023-08-31
2023-07-20
Health
F0838
Conduct and document a facility-wide assessment to determine what resources are necessary to care for residents competently during both day-to-day operations (including nights and weekends) and emergencies.
C
2023-08-31
2023-07-20
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
E
2023-08-31
2022-04-21
Health
F0657
Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals.
E
2022-05-19
2022-04-21
Health
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
E
2022-05-19
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
15
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
HB PROPERTY HOLDCO LLC
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
46%
2023-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
HB PROPERTY HOLDCO LLC
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
46%
2024-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
FISCHER, ELAZAR
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
8%
2022-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
MBM 2016 FAMILY TRUST
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
6%
2023-02-15
current
pecos_ownership
MCINTIRE, STACIE
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2022-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
ELAZAR FISCHER
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
100%
2022-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
HB OPERATIONS HOLDCO LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2022-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
STACIE MCINTIRE
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
100%
2022-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
HB PROPERTY HOLDCO LLC
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
46%
2022-10-01
ended 2022-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
1026 ENTERPRISES II, LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
40%
2023-02-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
10-26 NATIONWIDE TR
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
38%
2023-02-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PC8 CAPITAL GROUP LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
23%
2023-02-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SJ HEALTHCARE CAPITAL LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
23%
2023-02-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ADS CAPITAL TRUST
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
21%
2022-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SJ FAMILY TRUST
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
21%
2022-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
6
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$2,598,579
$1,864,082
—
$465,809
—
10
propco
2023-12-31
$2,140,502
$1,839,331
—
$301,171
—
6
propco
2022-12-31
$521,562
$444,575
—
$76,987
—
6
propco
2022-09-30
$394,441
—
—
—
$11,093
1
—
2021-12-31
$552,716
—
—
—
$12,318
1
—
2020-12-31
$792,801
—
—
—
$16,200
1
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
35
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 29051
acs median gross
0
$725
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 29051
fmr
0
$689
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 29051
acs median gross
1
$590
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 29051
fmr
1
$694
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 29051
acs median gross
2
$795
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 29051
fmr
2
$910
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 29051
acs median gross
3
$1,049
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 29051
fmr
3
$1,266
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 29051
acs median gross
4
$1,250
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 29051
fmr
4
$1,379
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 29051
acs median gross
5
$1,733
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 29051
acs median gross
$834
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 29051
acs recent mover gross
$865
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 65109
acs median gross
0
$633
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 65109
acs median gross
1
$586
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 65109
acs median gross
2
$817
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 65109
acs median gross
3
$1,056
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 65109
acs median gross
4
$1,100
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 65109
acs median gross
$861
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 65109
acs recent mover gross
$892
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 65109
payment standard 110
0
$792
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 65109
payment standard 90
0
$648
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 65109
safmr
0
$720
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 65109
payment standard 110
1
$792
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 65109
payment standard 90
1
$648
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 65109
safmr
1
$720
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 65109
payment standard 110
2
$1,045
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 65109
payment standard 90
2
$855
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 65109
safmr
2
$950
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 65109
payment standard 110
3
$1,452
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 65109
payment standard 90
3
$1,188
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 65109
safmr
3
$1,320
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 65109
payment standard 110
4
$1,584
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 65109
payment standard 90
4
$1,296
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 65109
safmr
4
$1,440
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.