Reads as: riskier than 58.9% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
5
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+37.2 vs natl
HOPKINS COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
5 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
7 chains
SMITH MICHAEL
12 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
4 chains
LONE JAMAL
4 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
60% fined
HOPKINS COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
5 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
44% fined
SMITH MICHAEL
16 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
TX median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
2.38
2.67
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.15
0.24
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.33
2.56
3.11
—
Weekday total
2.39
2.72
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
48.4
2.38
0.15
0.81
1.41
2.33
0.0%
2025Q3
92
47.8
2.32
0.18
0.81
1.32
2.24
0.0%
2025Q2
91
39.6
2.63
0.19
1.00
1.44
2.51
0.0%
2025Q1
90
43.0
2.66
0.25
0.86
1.55
2.46
0.0%
2024Q4
92
38.4
2.58
0.26
0.89
1.43
2.37
0.0%
2024Q3
92
42.1
2.65
0.40
0.73
1.52
2.55
0.0%
2024Q2
91
40.4
2.58
0.28
0.80
1.50
2.56
0.0%
2024Q1
91
43.5
2.61
0.29
0.88
1.43
2.26
0.0%
2023Q4
92
43.8
2.48
0.29
0.90
1.30
2.16
0.0%
2023Q3
92
40.3
2.77
0.38
0.87
1.53
2.25
0.0%
2023Q2
91
41.0
2.98
0.44
0.98
1.56
2.44
0.0%
2023Q1
90
41.1
3.06
0.45
0.87
1.74
2.66
0.0%
2022Q4
92
42.1
2.63
0.36
0.72
1.55
2.29
0.1%
2022Q3
92
43.6
2.60
0.38
0.63
1.59
2.39
0.1%
2022Q2
91
45.2
2.67
0.31
0.84
1.52
2.28
0.1%
2022Q1
90
44.9
3.53
0.36
1.11
2.06
3.44
5.4%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
31
D × 24E × 7
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2026-03-03
Health · complaint
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2026-03-04
2026-03-03
Health · complaint
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2026-03-04
2026-01-15
Health · complaint
F0637
Assess the resident when there is a significant change in condition
D
2026-03-02
2026-01-15
Health · complaint
F0641
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
D
2026-03-02
2025-12-05
Health · complaint
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2025-12-06
2025-12-05
Health · complaint
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2025-12-06
2025-12-05
Health · complaint
F0690
Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections.
D
2025-12-06
2025-12-05
Health · complaint
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
E
2025-12-06
2025-02-13
Health · complaint
F0640
Encode each resident’s assessment data and transmit these data to the State within 7 days of assessment.
D
2025-02-18
2025-02-13
Health · complaint
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2025-02-18
2025-02-13
Health · complaint
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2025-02-18
2025-02-13
Health · complaint
F0690
Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections.
D
2025-02-18
2025-02-13
Health · complaint
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2025-02-18
2025-02-13
Health · complaint
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
E
2025-02-18
2024-05-22
Health · complaint
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
D
2024-06-21
2024-05-22
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2024-06-21
2024-05-22
Health · complaint
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
D
2024-06-21
2024-05-22
Health · complaint
F0925
Make sure there is a pest control program to prevent/deal with mice, insects, or other pests.
E
2024-06-21
2024-05-15
Health · complaint
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2024-06-15
2024-05-15
Health · complaint
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2024-06-15
2024-04-18
Health · complaint
F0919
Make sure that a working call system is available in each resident's bathroom and bathing area.
D
2024-04-24
2023-12-20
Health
F0565
Honor the resident's right to organize and participate in resident/family groups in the facility.
E
2023-12-27
2023-12-20
Health
F0925
Make sure there is a pest control program to prevent/deal with mice, insects, or other pests.
E
2023-12-27
2023-08-04
Health · complaint
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2023-09-01
2023-07-12
Health · complaint
F0584
Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely.
D
2023-07-13
2023-07-12
Health · complaint
F0925
Make sure there is a pest control program to prevent/deal with mice, insects, or other pests.
E
2023-07-13
2022-10-12
Health
F0640
Encode each resident’s assessment data and transmit these data to the State within 7 days of assessment.
D
2022-10-13
2022-10-12
Health
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
E
2022-10-13
2022-10-12
Health
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
D
2022-10-13
2022-10-12
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2022-10-13
2022-10-12
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2022-10-13
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
16
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
HOPKINS COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2024-01-28
current
pecos_ownership
ADDISON, SARAH
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-10-14
current
pecos_ownership
BERKADIA COMMERCIAL MORTGAGE LLC
5% OR GREATER MORTGAGE INTEREST
—
2025-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
DALLAS HOUSING CORPORATION
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-01-28
current
pecos_ownership
HOPKINS COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
—
—
2024-01-28
current
tx_hhsc_directory
LONE, JAMAL
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
PARRISH, ERIKA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-05-20
current
pecos_ownership
PF SP ALF OPS II, LLC
—
—
2024-01-28
current
tx_hhsc_directory
PF SP ALF OPS II, LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
PF SP ALF OPS II, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-09-25
current
pecos_ownership
SIMPSON PLACE ALF REALTY, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-10-15
current
pecos_ownership
SMITH, MICHAEL
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2009-04-06
current
pecos_ownership
MICHAEL SMITH
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2009-04-06
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ERIKA PARRISH
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-05-20
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JAMAL LONE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2022-08-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SARAH ADDISON
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-10-14
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-09-30
$1
—
—
—
—
4
—
2024-01-27
$161,005
—
—
—
—
4
—
2022-12-31
$238,022
—
—
—
—
4
—
2021-12-31
$733,624
—
—
—
—
8
—
2020-12-31
$2,457,505
—
—
—
—
8
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
32
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 48113
acs median gross
0
$1,385
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48113
fmr
0
$1,582
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48113
acs median gross
1
$1,400
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48113
fmr
1
$1,648
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48113
acs median gross
2
$1,638
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48113
fmr
2
$1,931
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48113
acs median gross
3
$1,823
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48113
fmr
3
$2,431
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48113
acs median gross
4
$2,241
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48113
fmr
4
$3,091
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48113
acs median gross
5
$2,432
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48113
acs median gross
$1,565
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48113
acs recent mover gross
$1,745
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 75246
acs median gross
0
$874
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 75246
acs median gross
1
$952
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 75246
acs median gross
2
$1,538
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 75246
acs median gross
$1,086
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 75246
payment standard 110
0
$1,243
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 75246
payment standard 90
0
$1,017
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 75246
safmr
0
$1,130
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 75246
payment standard 110
1
$1,298
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 75246
payment standard 90
1
$1,062
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 75246
safmr
1
$1,180
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 75246
payment standard 110
2
$1,518
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 75246
payment standard 90
2
$1,242
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 75246
safmr
2
$1,380
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 75246
payment standard 110
3
$1,914
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 75246
payment standard 90
3
$1,566
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 75246
safmr
3
$1,740
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 75246
payment standard 110
4
$2,431
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 75246
payment standard 90
4
$1,989
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 75246
safmr
4
$2,210
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.