Composite
90.1 / 100 percentile
| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| financial risk | 96.5 | 87.0 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 22.27 | in index |
| regulatory risk | 75.1 | 71.2 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 17.33 | in index |
| billing conduct | 59.5 | 43.3 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 13.73 | in index |
| chow risk | 82.3 | 60.1 | 0.15 | 0.1154 | 9.50 | in index |
| staffing risk | 20.3 | 20.4 | 0.25 | 0.1923 | 3.90 | in index |
| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| billing conduct | 43.3 | B | v0.1-pacpuf-snf | default · in composite | R22. PAC PUF SNF 2023. PDPM coding intensity vs acuity, stay length, charge markup. |
| chow risk | 43.0 | B | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| chow risk | 77.2 | D | v0.6 | default · in composite | |
| financial risk | 87.0 | F | v0.5 | default · in composite | R18. |
| p adverse action 12m | 7.2 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 0.5 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
| regulatory risk | 71.2 | D | v0.3 | default · in composite | Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos. |
| staffing risk | 20.4 | A | v0.3 | default · in composite | Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS. |
| financial risk | 99.1 | F | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 79.1 | D | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 78.2 | D | v0.3 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 85.8 | F | v0.4 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 71.1 | D | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 71.1 | D | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 20.4 | A | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 20.4 | A | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| For-profit ownership | 0.00 | -1.24 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.62 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 25.00 | +0.57 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.42 | |
| Chain size (log) | 0.00 | -0.40 | |
| Occupancy | 0.62 | +0.24 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 0.00 | +0.20 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 0.00 | -0.17 |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| For-profit ownership | 0.00 | +1.62 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 0.00 | +1.43 | |
| Chain size (log) | 0.00 | +1.20 | |
| Occupancy | 0.62 | +0.56 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.39 | |
| Staffing trend, last 4 quarters | -0.53 | -0.27 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 3.81 | -0.25 | |
| Fine amount, 12m (log) | 0.00 | +0.18 |
| 2025Q4 HPRD | This facility | MO median | National median | National p25–p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total nurse | 3.81 | 2.41 | 3.28 | 2.90–3.77 |
| RN | 0.20 | 0.25 | 0.39 | 0.25–0.58 |
| Weekend total | 3.91 | 2.24 | 3.11 | — |
| Weekday total | 3.77 | 2.49 | 3.35 | — |
| Quarter | Days | Avg census | Total HPRD | RN | LPN | CNA | Weekend | Contract % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q4 | 92 | 52.9 | 3.81 | 0.20 | 1.38 | 2.23 | 3.91 | 3.6% |
| 2025Q3 | 92 | 63.5 | 3.90 | 0.23 | 1.27 | 2.40 | 3.99 | 1.6% |
| 2025Q2 | 91 | 58.6 | 4.43 | 0.35 | 1.18 | 2.91 | 4.28 | 1.3% |
| 2025Q1 | 90 | 62.7 | 4.07 | 0.46 | 1.02 | 2.60 | 4.02 | 3.0% |
| 2024Q4 | 92 | 62.9 | 4.34 | 0.46 | 1.21 | 2.67 | 4.30 | 1.9% |
| 2024Q3 | 92 | 63.1 | 3.79 | 0.46 | 1.03 | 2.29 | 3.68 | 0.6% |
| 2024Q2 | 91 | 56.4 | 3.95 | 0.50 | 1.11 | 2.33 | 3.87 | 0.1% |
| 2024Q1 | 91 | 58.3 | 4.09 | 0.43 | 1.11 | 2.54 | 4.12 | 2.6% |
| 2023Q4 | 92 | 61.0 | 3.82 | 0.37 | 1.09 | 2.36 | 3.60 | 3.2% |
| 2023Q3 | 92 | 61.3 | 3.83 | 0.49 | 1.02 | 2.32 | 3.66 | 19.7% |
| 2023Q1 | 90 | 53.2 | 4.45 | 0.51 | 1.20 | 2.74 | 4.30 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q4 | 92 | 52.8 | 3.70 | 0.39 | 0.92 | 2.39 | 3.38 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q3 | 92 | 53.3 | 3.85 | 0.35 | 1.05 | 2.45 | 3.79 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q2 | 91 | 49.1 | 4.01 | 0.25 | 1.05 | 2.71 | 3.69 | 16.3% |
| 2022Q1 | 90 | 48.6 | 3.48 | 0.14 | 1.01 | 2.33 | 3.19 | 14.2% |
| Date | Type | Fine | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-22 | Fine | $14,069 | CMS provider data |
| Survey | Type | Tag | Deficiency | Scope | Corrected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-18 | Health | F0641 | Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment. | D | 2025-07-22 |
| 2025-06-18 | Health | F0686 | Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing. | D | 2025-07-22 |
| 2025-06-18 | Health | F0697 | Provide safe, appropriate pain management for a resident who requires such services. | D | 2025-07-22 |
| 2025-06-18 | Health | F0698 | Provide safe, appropriate dialysis care/services for a resident who requires such services. | D | 2025-07-22 |
| 2025-06-18 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | E | 2025-07-22 |
| 2025-06-18 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | E | 2025-07-22 |
| 2025-06-18 | Health | F0921 | Make sure that the nursing home area is safe, easy to use, clean and comfortable for residents, staff and the public. | D | 2025-07-22 |
| 2025-06-18 | Health | F0923 | Have enough outside ventilation via a window or mechanical ventilation, or both. | D | 2025-07-22 |
| 2025-05-22 | Health · complaint | F0550 | Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights. | D | 2025-05-14 |
| 2025-03-05 | Health · complaint | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | J | 2025-02-26 |
| 2025-01-22 | Health · complaint | F0580 | Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident. | D | 2025-03-21 |
| 2025-01-22 | Health · complaint | F0657 | Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals. | D | 2025-03-21 |
| 2025-01-22 | Health · complaint | F0686 | Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing. | D | 2025-03-21 |
| 2025-01-22 | Health · complaint | F0801 | Employ sufficient staff with the appropriate competencies and skills sets to carry out the functions of the food and nutrition service, including a qualified dietician. | D | 2025-03-21 |
| 2023-09-29 | Health | F0550 | Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights. | D | 2023-11-13 |
| 2023-09-29 | Health | F0568 | Properly hold, secure, and manage each resident's personal money which is deposited with the nursing home. | D | 2023-11-13 |
| 2023-09-29 | Health | F0569 | Notify each resident of certain balances and convey resident funds upon discharge, eviction, or death. | D | 2023-11-13 |
| 2023-09-29 | Health | F0570 | Assure the security of all personal funds of residents deposited with the facility. | D | 2023-11-13 |
| 2023-09-29 | Health | F0584 | Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely. | E | 2023-11-13 |
| 2023-09-29 | Health | F0676 | Ensure residents do not lose the ability to perform activities of daily living unless there is a medical reason. | D | 2023-11-13 |
| 2023-09-29 | Health | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2023-11-13 |
| 2023-09-29 | Health | F0690 | Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections. | E | 2023-11-13 |
| 2023-09-29 | Health | F0695 | Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed. | E | 2023-11-13 |
| 2023-09-29 | Health | F0698 | Provide safe, appropriate dialysis care/services for a resident who requires such services. | D | 2023-11-13 |
| 2023-09-29 | Health | F0791 | Provide or obtain dental services for each resident. | D | 2023-11-13 |
| 2023-09-29 | Health | F0804 | Ensure food and drink is palatable, attractive, and at a safe and appetizing temperature. | D | 2023-11-13 |
| 2023-09-29 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | F | 2023-11-13 |
| 2023-09-29 | Health | F0813 | Have a policy regarding use and storage of foods brought to residents by family and other visitors. | D | 2023-11-13 |
| 2023-09-29 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | F | 2023-11-13 |
| 2023-09-29 | Health | F0925 | Make sure there is a pest control program to prevent/deal with mice, insects, or other pests. | D | 2023-11-13 |
| 2022-04-22 | Health | F0623 | Provide timely notification to the resident, and if applicable to the resident representative and ombudsman, before transfer or discharge, including appeal rights. | D | 2022-06-06 |
| 2022-04-22 | Health | F0625 | Notify the resident or the resident’s representative in writing how long the nursing home will hold the resident’s bed in cases of transfer to a hospital or therapeutic leave. | D | 2022-06-06 |
| 2022-04-22 | Health | F0686 | Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing. | D | 2022-06-06 |
| 2022-04-22 | Health | F0755 | Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist. | E | 2022-06-06 |
| 2022-04-22 | Health | F0759 | Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater. | E | 2022-06-06 |
| 2022-04-22 | Health | F0760 | Ensure that residents are free from significant medication errors. | D | 2022-06-06 |
| 2022-04-22 | Health | F0761 | Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs. | E | 2022-06-06 |
| 2022-04-22 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | E | 2022-06-06 |
| Owner | Role | Pct | From | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UMB BANK NA | 5% OR GREATER MORTGAGE INTEREST | 50% | 2014-03-25 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| JOANNE KELLEY | CORPORATE OFFICER | 0% | 2018-05-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| JOANNE KELLEY | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | 0% | 2003-04-30 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| JOHN YOUNGER | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | 0% | 2020-04-26 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| AMMAR KHALIFA | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2012-02-17 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| AMMAR KHALIFA | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2025-12-17 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| GREYSTONE COMMUNITIES | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2024-11-19 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| Close | Facility | Price | $/bed | Cap rate | Beds | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-01 | AVENIR AT MAPLE GROVE | — | — | — | 90 | NBH2 MGOPCO LLC |
| 2025-10-01 | AVENIR AT MARK TWAIN | — | — | — | 120 | NBH1 MTOPCO LLC |
| 2025-10-01 | ARBOR HILLS CARE & REHAB CENTER | — | — | — | 150 | ARBOR HILLS HEALTHCARE, LLC |
| 2025-10-01 | ASCEND AT AURORA | — | — | — | 125 | NBH3 SFOPCO LLC |
| 2025-09-01 | HUBBLE CREEK | — | — | — | 105 | HUBBLE CREEK LLC |
| 2025-08-01 | HIDDEN LAKE HEALTH CARE CENTER | — | — | — | 67 | HIDDEN LAKE HEALTH CARE CENTER, LLC |
| 2025-05-01 | PINE GROVE MANOR | — | — | — | 77 | PINE GROVE MANOR LLC |
| 2025-05-01 | MONARCH SPRINGS WELLNESS & REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 119 | MONARCH SPRINGS WELLNESS & REHABILITATION LLC |
| 2025-05-01 | ASPIRE SENIOR LIVING NEW FLORENCE | — | — | — | 87 | ASPIRE SENIOR LIVING NEW FLORENCE LLC |
| 2025-04-01 | SOUTH COUNTY HEALTH CARE CENTER | — | — | — | 153 | SOUTH COUNTY HEALTH CARE CENTER, L.L.C. |
| 2025-02-01 | ARBOR VIEW NURSING AND REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 150 | FORREST OPCO LLC |
| 2025-02-01 | AMBERWOOD ESTATES NURSING AND REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 115 | ISLAND HC OPERATIONS LLC |
| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 29095 | acs median gross | 0 | $938 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 29095 | fmr | 0 | $1,095 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 29095 | acs median gross | 1 | $1,024 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 29095 | fmr | 1 | $1,197 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 29095 | acs median gross | 2 | $1,179 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 29095 | fmr | 2 | $1,358 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 29095 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,422 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 29095 | fmr | 3 | $1,769 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 29095 | acs median gross | 4 | $1,731 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 29095 | fmr | 4 | $2,103 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 29095 | acs median gross | 5 | $1,736 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 29095 | acs median gross | $1,197 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| county 29095 | acs recent mover gross | $1,373 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 64114 | acs median gross | 0 | $1,029 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 64114 | acs median gross | 1 | $1,128 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 64114 | acs median gross | 2 | $1,437 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 64114 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,691 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 64114 | acs median gross | 4 | $2,080 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 64114 | acs median gross | $1,364 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 64114 | acs recent mover gross | $1,522 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zip 64114 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $1,408 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 64114 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $1,152 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 64114 | safmr | 0 | $1,280 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 64114 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $1,540 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 64114 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $1,260 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 64114 | safmr | 1 | $1,400 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 64114 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $1,749 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 64114 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $1,431 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 64114 | safmr | 2 | $1,590 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 64114 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $2,277 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 64114 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $1,863 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 64114 | safmr | 3 | $2,070 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 64114 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $2,706 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 64114 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $2,214 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 64114 | safmr | 4 | $2,460 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |