Composite
82.9 / 100 percentile
| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| financial risk | 97.0 | 88.4 | 0.30 | 0.2609 | 25.30 | in index |
| regulatory risk | 75.4 | 71.5 | 0.30 | 0.2609 | 19.67 | in index |
| lease risk | 91.2 | 80.0 | 0.15 | 0.1304 | 11.90 | in index |
| chow risk | 35.5 | 42.3 | 0.15 | 0.1304 | 4.63 | in index |
| staffing risk | 2.4 | 2.5 | 0.25 | 0.2174 | 0.52 | in index |
| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| chow risk | 22.5 | A | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| chow risk | 62.1 | C | v0.6 | default · in composite | |
| financial risk | 88.4 | F | v0.5 | default · in composite | R18. |
| lease risk | 80.0 | F | v0.5 | default · in composite | |
| p adverse action 12m | 3.9 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 0.8 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
| regulatory risk | 71.5 | D | v0.3 | default · in composite | Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos. |
| staffing risk | 2.5 | A | v0.3 | default · in composite | Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS. |
| financial risk | 55.5 | C | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 35.5 | B | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 71.2 | D | v0.3 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 87.3 | F | v0.4 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| lease risk | 49.0 | C | v0.4 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later lease_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 71.4 | D | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 71.4 | D | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 2.5 | A | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 2.5 | A | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| For-profit ownership | 0.00 | -1.24 | |
| Occupancy | 0.48 | +0.64 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.62 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 25.00 | +0.57 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 5.39 | -0.47 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.42 | |
| Chain size (log) | 0.00 | -0.40 | |
| Contract staffing share | 0.31 | +0.38 |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| For-profit ownership | 0.00 | +1.62 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 1.00 | +1.24 | |
| Chain size (log) | 0.00 | +1.20 | |
| Occupancy | 0.48 | +1.14 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 5.39 | -0.91 | |
| Staffing trend, last 4 quarters | -1.58 | -0.76 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.39 | |
| Contract staffing share | 0.31 | +0.25 |
| 2025Q4 HPRD | This facility | AZ median | National median | National p25–p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total nurse | 5.39 | 3.53 | 3.28 | 2.90–3.77 |
| RN | 1.00 | 0.43 | 0.39 | 0.25–0.58 |
| Weekend total | 4.81 | 3.35 | 3.11 | — |
| Weekday total | 5.62 | 3.62 | 3.35 | — |
| Quarter | Days | Avg census | Total HPRD | RN | LPN | CNA | Weekend | Contract % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q4 | 92 | 95.5 | 5.39 | 1.00 | 0.96 | 3.43 | 4.81 | 30.7% |
| 2025Q3 | 92 | 92.3 | 5.57 | 1.04 | 0.96 | 3.56 | 5.06 | 34.6% |
| 2025Q2 | 91 | 83.5 | 5.96 | 1.18 | 1.10 | 3.69 | 5.39 | 32.6% |
| 2025Q1 | 90 | 70.0 | 7.73 | 1.59 | 1.24 | 4.90 | 7.15 | 39.8% |
| 2024Q4 | 92 | 73.2 | 6.97 | 1.42 | 1.15 | 4.40 | 6.34 | 40.0% |
| 2024Q2 | 91 | 80.5 | 5.88 | 1.15 | 0.98 | 3.75 | 5.48 | 35.5% |
| 2024Q1 | 91 | 78.2 | 6.42 | 1.07 | 1.11 | 4.23 | 5.72 | 40.7% |
| 2023Q4 | 92 | 80.0 | 6.28 | 1.16 | 1.13 | 3.99 | 5.55 | 40.8% |
| 2023Q3 | 92 | 80.5 | 4.15 | 0.93 | 1.17 | 2.05 | 3.60 | 11.2% |
| 2023Q2 | 91 | 81.7 | 5.94 | 0.87 | 1.33 | 3.74 | 5.33 | 45.8% |
| 2023Q1 | 90 | 78.5 | 4.80 | 0.79 | 1.20 | 2.81 | 4.40 | 28.9% |
| 2022Q4 | 92 | 75.1 | 4.92 | 0.75 | 1.15 | 3.02 | 4.55 | 30.4% |
| 2022Q3 | 92 | 69.8 | 5.27 | 0.85 | 1.11 | 3.30 | 4.98 | 36.1% |
| 2022Q1 | 90 | 87.3 | 4.71 | 0.89 | 1.10 | 2.72 | 4.32 | 31.4% |
| Date | Type | Fine | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-10 | Fine | $9,110 | CMS provider data |
| 2024-04-22 | Fine | $6,743 | CMS provider data |
| 2024-04-22 | Payment Denial | — | CMS provider data |
| 2023-11-02 | Fine | $7,443 | CMS provider data |
| Survey | Type | Tag | Deficiency | Scope | Corrected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-09 | Health · complaint | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | D | 2025-12-15 |
| 2025-05-30 | Health | F0645 | PASARR screening for Mental disorders or Intellectual Disabilities | D | 2025-06-27 |
| 2025-05-30 | Health | F0756 | Ensure a licensed pharmacist perform a monthly drug regimen review, including the medical chart, following irregularity reporting guidelines in developed policies and procedures. | D | 2025-07-02 |
| 2025-05-30 | Health | F0842 | Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards. | E | 2025-07-10 |
| 2025-05-30 | Health | F0851 | Electronically submit to CMS complete and accurate direct care staffing information, based on payroll and other verifiable and auditable data. | F | 2025-06-30 |
| 2025-05-15 | Health · complaint | F0607 | Develop and implement policies and procedures to prevent abuse, neglect, and theft. | D | 2025-05-23 |
| 2025-05-15 | Health · complaint | F0610 | Respond appropriately to all alleged violations. | D | 2025-05-23 |
| 2025-04-24 | Health · complaint | F0610 | Respond appropriately to all alleged violations. | E | 2025-04-30 |
| 2025-04-24 | Health · complaint | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | D | 2025-04-30 |
| 2025-02-19 | Health · complaint | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | D | 2025-04-21 |
| 2025-01-22 | Health · complaint | F0760 | Ensure that residents are free from significant medication errors. | G | 2025-04-15 |
| 2025-01-14 | Health · complaint | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | D | 2025-04-21 |
| 2024-12-10 | Health · complaint | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | D | 2025-03-05 |
| 2024-10-31 | Health · complaint | F0658 | Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality. | D | 2025-02-03 |
| 2024-09-23 | Health · complaint | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | E | 2024-11-15 |
| 2024-05-24 | Health · complaint | F0660 | Plan the resident's discharge to meet the resident's goals and needs. | D | 2024-07-25 |
| 2024-05-24 | Health · complaint | F0842 | Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards. | E | 2024-07-25 |
| 2024-05-08 | Health · complaint | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | G | 2024-07-15 |
| 2024-04-22 | Health · complaint | F0557 | Honor the resident's right to be treated with respect and dignity and to retain and use personal possessions. | D | 2024-07-25 |
| 2024-04-22 | Health · complaint | F0610 | Respond appropriately to all alleged violations. | D | 2024-07-25 |
| 2024-01-12 | Health · complaint | F0550 | Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights. | E | 2024-04-12 |
| 2024-01-12 | Health · complaint | F0561 | Honor the resident's right to and the facility must promote and facilitate resident self-determination through support of resident choice. | E | 2024-04-12 |
| 2023-11-30 | Health · complaint | F0658 | Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality. | D | 2024-02-25 |
| 2023-11-02 | Health · complaint | F0690 | Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections. | G | 2024-02-02 |
| 2023-11-02 | Health · complaint | F0761 | Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs. | D | 2024-03-01 |
| 2023-11-02 | Health · complaint | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | D | 2023-12-18 |
| 2023-07-21 | Health · complaint | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | D | 2023-09-20 |
| 2023-07-21 | Health | F0623 | Provide timely notification to the resident, and if applicable to the resident representative and ombudsman, before transfer or discharge, including appeal rights. | E | 2023-09-20 |
| 2023-07-21 | Health | F0625 | Notify the resident or the resident’s representative in writing how long the nursing home will hold the resident’s bed in cases of transfer to a hospital or therapeutic leave. | D | 2023-09-20 |
| 2023-07-21 | Health | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | E | 2023-08-21 |
| 2023-07-10 | Health · complaint | F0658 | Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality. | D | 2023-08-31 |
| 2022-05-26 | Health | F0552 | Ensure that residents are fully informed and understand their health status, care and treatments. | D | 2022-06-17 |
| 2022-05-26 | Health | F0645 | PASARR screening for Mental disorders or Intellectual Disabilities | D | 2022-06-17 |
| 2022-05-26 | Health | F0677 | Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable. | D | 2022-06-17 |
| 2022-05-26 | Health | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | D | 2022-06-17 |
| 2022-05-26 | Health | F0756 | Ensure a licensed pharmacist perform a monthly drug regimen review, including the medical chart, following irregularity reporting guidelines in developed policies and procedures. | D | 2022-06-17 |
| 2022-05-26 | Health | F0758 | Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited. | D | 2022-06-17 |
| 2022-05-26 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | E | 2022-06-17 |
| 2022-05-26 | Health | F0888 | Ensure staff are vaccinated for COVID-19 | E | 2022-06-17 |
| Owner | Role | Pct | From | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GARCIA, JUSTINA | W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE | — | 2021-01-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| STATE OF ARIZONA/STATE DEPT OF FINANCE | OTHER | 100% | 1995-11-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| JUSTINA GARCIA | W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE | 5% | 2021-01-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| Close | Facility | Price | $/bed | Cap rate | Beds | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-01 | Springdale Village Post Acute | — | — | — | 122 | ONE HOPE HEALTHCARE LLC |
| 2025-03-01 | Citrus Heights Respiratory and Rehabilitation | — | — | — | 204 | SALT CREEK HEALTHCARE LLC |
| 2024-11-20 | Prescott Valley Nursing & Rehabilitation | — | — | — | 58 | PRESCOTT VALLEY NURSING & REHABILITATION LLC |
| 2024-11-19 | Prescott Village Nursing & Rehabilitation | — | — | — | 58 | PRESCOTT VILLAGE NURSING & REHABILITATION LLC |
| 2024-11-18 | QUIBURI MISSION NURSING & REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 60 | QUIBURI MISSION NURSING & REHABILITATION LLC |
| 2024-09-26 | THE REHABILITATION CENTER AT THE PALAZZO | — | — | — | 60 | APHZ LLC |
| 2024-06-01 | Wellsprings of Gilbert | — | — | — | 32 | HARBOR MESA HEALTHCARE LLC |
| 2024-05-01 | RIVER PARK POST ACUTE | — | — | — | 66 | MURIEL HEALTHCARE LLC |
| 2023-09-01 | Ahwatukee Post Acute | — | — | — | 192 | LA ESTANCIA SNF HEALTHCARE LLC |
| 2023-09-01 | Sun City Post Acute | — | — | — | 118 | SUN CITY SNF HEALTHCARE LLC |
| 2023-09-01 | REHAB AT SCOTTSDALE VILLAGE SQUARE | — | — | — | 141 | SCOTTSDALE AZ OPCO LLC |
| 2023-09-01 | SANDRIDGE POST ACUTE | — | — | — | 191 | MESA ARIZONA SNF HEALTHCARE LLC |
| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 04013 | acs median gross | 0 | $1,383 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 04013 | fmr | 0 | $1,457 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 04013 | acs median gross | 1 | $1,453 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 04013 | fmr | 1 | $1,583 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 04013 | acs median gross | 2 | $1,698 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 04013 | fmr | 2 | $1,839 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 04013 | acs median gross | 3 | $2,027 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 04013 | fmr | 3 | $2,452 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 04013 | acs median gross | 4 | $2,312 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 04013 | fmr | 4 | $2,720 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 04013 | acs median gross | 5 | $2,632 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 04013 | acs median gross | $1,708 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| county 04013 | acs recent mover gross | $1,867 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 85012 | acs median gross | 0 | $1,591 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 85012 | acs median gross | 1 | $1,623 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 85012 | acs median gross | 2 | $2,136 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 85012 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,845 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 85012 | acs median gross | 4 | $3,501 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 85012 | acs median gross | $1,746 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 85012 | acs recent mover gross | $1,943 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zip 85012 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $1,749 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 85012 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $1,431 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 85012 | safmr | 0 | $1,590 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 85012 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $1,903 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 85012 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $1,557 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 85012 | safmr | 1 | $1,730 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 85012 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $2,211 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 85012 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $1,809 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 85012 | safmr | 2 | $2,010 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 85012 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $2,948 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 85012 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $2,412 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 85012 | safmr | 3 | $2,680 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 85012 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $3,267 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 85012 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $2,673 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 85012 | safmr | 4 | $2,970 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |