Composite
22.1 / 100 percentile
Screener / 745052
A
HCA HOUSTON HEALTHCARE SOUTHEAST
snfTX
4801 EAST SAM HOUSTON PARKWAY SOUTH, PASADENA, TX 77505 · CCN 745052 · chain HCA HEALTHCARE INC
Peer group
snf n = 14,684
Evidence depth
moderate
Certified beds
30
Model
v1.2
Reads as: riskier than 22.1% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
Score model2ML signals2Components4CHOW radar1Distress radar1Staffing2Penalties0Deficiencies0Licensure0Ownership32Related party0Transactions0Comps12Market rent34
Composite explanation
2| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| lease risk | 73.8 | 60.0 | 0.15 | 0.5000 | 36.90 | in index |
| chow risk | 0.4 | 14.5 | 0.15 | 0.5000 | 0.20 | in index |
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
2| Kind | Finding | Signal | Subject | First seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| connection | Owner fleet risk far above national | +20.8 vs natl | HCA SQUARED LLC | 26 facilities |
| connection | Owner fleet risk far above national | +20.8 vs natl | HOSPITAL CORP LLC | 26 facilities |
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Component scores and registry models
4| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| chow risk | 14.5 | A | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| lease risk | 60.0 | C | v0.5 | default · in composite | |
| p adverse action 12m | 0.0 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 4.1 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
CHOW radar — 12-month sale probability
full board →p(CHOW, 12m)
4.1%
model v0.1 · computed 2026-07-29
Percentile among SNFs
84.9
100 = most likely to sell
Holdout AUC
0.874
evaluated before shipping, never refit
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | +0.69 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.62 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 6.02 | -0.59 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 25.00 | +0.57 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.42 | |
| Chain size (log) | 3.74 | +0.39 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 0.00 | +0.20 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 0.00 | -0.17 |
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Distress radar — 12-month termination probability
full board →p(termination, 12m)
0.0%
model v0.1 · computed 2026-07-29
Percentile among SNFs
33.6
100 = most likely to lose certification
Holdout AUC
0.971
top decile caught 95% of actual exits
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 0.00 | +1.43 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 6.02 | -1.18 | |
| Chain size (log) | 3.74 | -0.97 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | -0.69 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.39 | |
| Occupancy | 0.68 | +0.27 | |
| Facility size (log beds) | 3.43 | +0.19 | |
| Fine amount, 12m (log) | 0.00 | +0.18 |
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
2| 2025Q2 HPRD | This facility | TX median | National median | National p25–p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total nurse | 6.02 | 2.67 | 3.28 | 2.90–3.77 |
| RN | 2.70 | 0.24 | 0.39 | 0.25–0.58 |
| Weekend total | 6.22 | 2.56 | 3.11 | — |
| Weekday total | 5.95 | 2.72 | 3.35 | — |
| Quarter | Days | Avg census | Total HPRD | RN | LPN | CNA | Weekend | Contract % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q2 | 91 | 20.5 | 6.02 | 2.70 | 1.52 | 1.80 | 6.22 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q1 | 90 | 18.0 | 6.59 | 2.88 | 2.00 | 1.71 | 6.66 | 2.3% |
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
0No deficiencies on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
32| Owner | Role | Pct | From | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAYSHORE PARTNER, LLC | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 99% | 2011-07-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| COLUMBIA HOSPITAL CORPORATION - DELAWARE | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | — | 2011-07-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| COLUMBIA HOSPITAL CORPORATION OF WEST HOUSTON | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | — | 2011-07-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| COLUMBIA/HCA OF HOUSTON, INC | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | — | 2011-07-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| FRISCO HOLDING II | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | — | 2006-11-17 | current | pecos_ownership |
| GIBBERMAN, JEFFREY | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2023-08-02 | current | pecos_ownership |
| GIBBERMAN, JEFFREY | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2025-05-19 | current | pecos_ownership |
| HCA HEALTH SERVICES OF TEXAS INC | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | — | 2011-07-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| HCA HEALTHCARE INC | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | — | 2011-07-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| HCA INC | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | — | 2011-07-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| HCA SQUARED LLC | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | — | 2011-10-24 | current | pecos_ownership |
| HEALTHSERV ACQUISITION LLC | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | — | 2011-07-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| HEALTHTRUST INC - THE HOSPITAL COMPANY | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | — | 2011-07-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| HERCULES HOLDING II | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | — | 2011-07-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| HOSPITAL CORP LLC | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | — | 2011-07-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| HOUSTON HEALTHCARE HOLDINGS, INC | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | — | 2011-07-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| HTI HOSPITAL HOLDINGS INC | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | — | 2011-07-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| INDIANAPOLIS HOSPITAL PARTNER, LLC | LIMITED PARTNERSHIP INTEREST | — | 2011-07-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| MAGOULAS, DEMETRIOS | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2025-12-05 | current | pecos_ownership |
| MAGOULAS, DEMETRIOS | CORPORATE OFFICER | — | 2023-12-05 | current | pecos_ownership |
| MCDANIEL, YASMENE | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2022-10-17 | current | pecos_ownership |
| PASADENA BAYSHORE HOSPITAL, INC | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | — | 2011-07-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| SMITH, ERIC | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2021-03-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| WAGNER, JACKSON | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2023-05-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| WOMEN'S HOSPITAL INDIANAPOLIS, L.P. | LIMITED PARTNERSHIP INTEREST | — | 2011-07-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| DEMETRIOS MAGOULAS | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2025-12-05 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| DEMETRIOS MAGOULAS | CORPORATE OFFICER | — | 2023-12-05 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| ERIC SMITH | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2021-03-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| JACKSON WAGNER | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2023-05-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| JEFFREY GIBBERMAN | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2025-05-19 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| JEFFREY GIBBERMAN | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2023-08-02 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| YASMENE MCDANIEL | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2022-10-17 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Transactions
0No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Comparable trades — TX snf
12| Close | Facility | Price | $/bed | Cap rate | Beds | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-01 | ST. ANTHONY'S CARE CENTER | — | — | — | 120 | SOUTH LIMESTONE HOSPITAL DISTRICT |
| 2025-10-01 | Avir at New Braunfels | — | — | — | 154 | 821 US HIGHWAY 81 W OPCO LLC |
| 2025-09-01 | Avir at Texarkana | — | — | — | 110 | GUADALUPE COUNTY HOSPITAL BOARD |
| 2025-09-01 | PARKS HEALTH CENTER | — | — | — | 90 | WEST COKE COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT |
| 2025-09-01 | WINDMILL VILLAGE REHABILITATION & CARE CENTER | — | — | — | 120 | FANNIN COUNTY HOSPITAL AUTHORITY |
| 2025-08-31 | Las Ventanas De Socorro | — | — | — | 126 | SOCORRO HEALTH CARE LLC |
| 2025-08-01 | Avir at Mineola | — | — | — | 115 | HOPKINS COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT |
| 2025-08-01 | Avir at Orem | — | — | — | 120 | 3730 W OREM DR OPCO LLC |
| 2025-08-01 | Avir at Courtyard | — | — | — | 120 | 7499 STANWICK DR OPCO LLC |
| 2025-08-01 | HILLSIDE MEDICAL LODGE | — | — | — | 128 | CORYELL COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL AUTHORITY |
| 2025-08-01 | Avir at Pasadena | — | — | — | 131 | 4300 VISTA RD OPCO LLC |
| 2025-07-01 | Highland Meadows | — | — | — | 120 | NOCONA HOSPITAL DISTRICT |
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
34| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 48201 | acs median gross | 0 | $1,177 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 48201 | fmr | 0 | $1,280 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 48201 | acs median gross | 1 | $1,196 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 48201 | fmr | 1 | $1,323 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 48201 | acs median gross | 2 | $1,425 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 48201 | fmr | 2 | $1,573 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 48201 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,764 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 48201 | fmr | 3 | $2,116 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 48201 | acs median gross | 4 | $2,148 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 48201 | fmr | 4 | $2,639 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 48201 | acs median gross | 5 | $2,339 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 48201 | acs median gross | $1,401 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| county 48201 | acs recent mover gross | $1,495 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 77505 | acs median gross | 0 | $1,311 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 77505 | acs median gross | 1 | $1,459 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 77505 | acs median gross | 2 | $1,577 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 77505 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,710 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 77505 | acs median gross | $1,575 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 77505 | acs recent mover gross | $1,734 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zip 77505 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $1,573 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 77505 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $1,287 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 77505 | safmr | 0 | $1,430 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 77505 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $1,628 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 77505 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $1,332 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 77505 | safmr | 1 | $1,480 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 77505 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $1,936 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 77505 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $1,584 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 77505 | safmr | 2 | $1,760 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 77505 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $2,607 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 77505 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $2,133 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 77505 | safmr | 3 | $2,370 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 77505 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $3,245 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 77505 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $2,655 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 77505 | safmr | 4 | $2,950 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.