Reads as: riskier than 61.0% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
5
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+38.3 vs natl
ARNOLD JASON
5 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+38.3 vs natl
MONTGOMERY RAYMOND
5 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+35.6 vs natl
BURMONT INC
5 facilities
connection
Buyer assembling a chain (5+ takeovers/24mo)
6 facilities
WINNIE-STOWELL HOSPITAL DISTRICT
6 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
46% fined
MURRELL EDWARD
76 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
TX median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
2.62
2.67
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.49
0.24
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.45
2.56
3.11
—
Weekday total
2.69
2.72
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
64.8
2.62
0.49
0.44
1.69
2.45
0.0%
2025Q3
92
67.5
2.42
0.45
0.46
1.51
2.36
0.0%
2025Q2
91
67.7
2.35
0.23
0.61
1.51
2.11
0.0%
2025Q1
90
69.8
2.32
0.17
0.68
1.47
1.92
0.0%
2024Q4
92
72.9
2.42
0.17
0.67
1.57
2.17
0.0%
2024Q3
92
76.9
2.21
0.20
0.53
1.48
1.90
0.0%
2024Q2
91
71.7
2.03
0.29
0.45
1.29
1.49
0.0%
2024Q1
91
75.7
1.94
0.25
0.48
1.21
1.56
0.0%
2023Q4
92
84.5
1.69
0.16
0.43
1.10
1.37
0.0%
2023Q3
92
81.7
1.78
0.18
0.44
1.16
1.62
0.0%
2023Q2
91
80.1
1.74
0.21
0.42
1.11
1.59
0.0%
2023Q1
90
77.0
1.91
0.24
0.43
1.24
1.89
0.0%
2022Q4
92
75.7
1.83
0.24
0.42
1.18
1.75
0.0%
2022Q3
92
71.8
2.31
0.23
0.53
1.54
2.14
0.0%
2022Q2
91
69.4
2.41
0.24
0.57
1.61
2.30
0.0%
2022Q1
90
64.0
2.77
0.09
0.66
2.03
2.64
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
23
C × 1D × 4E × 11F × 7
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2025-06-04
Health
F0552
Ensure that residents are fully informed and understand their health status, care and treatments.
E
2025-06-13
2025-06-04
Health · complaint
F0645
PASARR screening for Mental disorders or Intellectual Disabilities
D
2025-06-13
2025-06-04
Health
F0757
Ensure each resident’s drug regimen must be free from unnecessary drugs.
D
2025-06-13
2025-06-04
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2025-06-13
2025-06-04
Health
F0835
Administer the facility in a manner that enables it to use its resources effectively and efficiently.
F
2025-06-13
2025-06-04
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
E
2025-06-05
2025-06-04
Health
F0945
Include as part of its infection prevention and control program, mandatory training that includes written standards, policies, and procedures for the program.
F
2025-06-05
2024-05-21
Health
F0641
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
D
2024-06-12
2024-05-21
Health
F0801
Employ sufficient staff with the appropriate competencies and skills sets to carry out the functions of the food and nutrition service, including a qualified dietician.
F
2024-06-21
2024-05-21
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2024-06-18
2024-05-21
Health
F0836
Ensure the facility is licensed under applicable State and local law and operates and provides services in compliance with all applicable Federal, State, and local laws, regulations, and codes, and with accepted professional standards.
F
2024-05-27
2024-05-21
Health
F0940
Develop, implement, and/or maintain an effective training program for all new and existing staff members.
E
2024-05-24
2024-05-21
Health
F0941
Develop, implement, and/or maintain an effective training program that includes effective communications for direct care staff members.
E
2024-06-25
2024-05-21
Health
F0942
Ensure that staff members are educated on resident rights and facility responsibilities to properly care for its residents.
E
2024-06-25
2024-05-21
Health
F0943
Give their staff education on dementia care, and what abuse, neglect, and exploitation are; and how to report abuse, neglect, and exploitation.
E
2024-06-25
2024-05-21
Health
F0944
Conduct mandatory training, for all staff, on the facility’s Quality Assurance and Performance Improvement Program.
F
2024-06-25
2024-05-21
Health
F0945
Include as part of its infection prevention and control program, mandatory training that includes written standards, policies, and procedures for the program.
E
2024-06-25
2024-05-21
Health
F0946
Provide training in compliance and ethics.
F
2024-06-25
2024-05-21
Health
F0947
Ensure nurse aides have the skills they need to care for residents, and give nurse aides education in dementia care and abuse prevention.
E
2024-06-25
2024-05-21
Health
F0949
Provide behavior health training consistent with the requirements and as determined by a facility assessment.
E
2024-06-25
2023-03-22
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
E
2023-03-24
2023-03-22
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
E
2023-03-24
2023-03-22
Health
F0732
Post nurse staffing information every day.
C
2023-03-23
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
21
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
ARNOLD, CONRAD
5% OR GREATER MORTGAGE INTEREST
—
2025-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
ARNOLD, JASON
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
BURMONT, INC.
5% OR GREATER MORTGAGE INTEREST
—
2025-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
CALLENS, DON
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
LIBERTY COMPLETE, LP
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
MAGNOLIA PLACE HEALTH CARE L L P
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
MAGNOLIA PLACE HEALTH CARE L L P
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-04
current
pecos_ownership
MAGNOLIA PLACE HEALTH CARE, LLP
—
—
2025-04-01
current
tx_hhsc_directory
MONTGOMERY, DEBRAH
5% OR GREATER MORTGAGE INTEREST
—
2025-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
MONTGOMERY, RAYMOND
5% OR GREATER MORTGAGE INTEREST
—
2025-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
MURRELL, EDWARD
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2025-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
OTT, ADAM
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
WINNIE STOWELL HOSPITAL DISTRICT
—
—
2025-04-01
current
tx_hhsc_directory
WINNIE-STOWELL HOSPITAL DISTRICT
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2025-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RAYMOND MONTGOMERY
5% OR GREATER MORTGAGE INTEREST
73%
2025-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CONRAD ARNOLD
5% OR GREATER MORTGAGE INTEREST
14%
2025-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DEBRAH MONTGOMERY
5% OR GREATER MORTGAGE INTEREST
14%
2025-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
EDWARD MURRELL
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2025-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ADAM OTT
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DON CALLENS
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JASON ARNOLD
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
0
No related-party cost years on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
31
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 48291
acs median gross
0
$638
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48291
fmr
0
$1,280
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48291
acs median gross
1
$832
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48291
fmr
1
$1,323
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48291
acs median gross
2
$1,046
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48291
fmr
2
$1,573
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48291
acs median gross
3
$1,119
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48291
fmr
3
$2,116
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48291
acs median gross
4
$1,181
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48291
fmr
4
$2,639
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48291
acs median gross
$1,044
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48291
acs recent mover gross
$1,080
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 77575
acs median gross
1
$503
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 77575
acs median gross
2
$1,255
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 77575
acs median gross
3
$977
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 77575
acs median gross
$953
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 77575
payment standard 110
0
$957
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77575
payment standard 90
0
$783
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77575
safmr
0
$870
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77575
payment standard 110
1
$990
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77575
payment standard 90
1
$810
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77575
safmr
1
$900
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77575
payment standard 110
2
$1,177
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77575
payment standard 90
2
$963
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77575
safmr
2
$1,070
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77575
payment standard 110
3
$1,584
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77575
payment standard 90
3
$1,296
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77575
safmr
3
$1,440
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77575
payment standard 110
4
$1,969
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77575
payment standard 90
4
$1,611
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77575
safmr
4
$1,790
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.