Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

3,401–3,450

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
3401	WHISPERING PINES NURSING CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	OK	NORMAN	0	—
3402	OCEANVIEW NURSING HOME	0.6%	77.5	—	ME	LUBEC	0	—
3403	REHAB & CARE CTR - JACKSON CO	0.6%	77.5	—	IL	MURPHYSBORO	—	—
3404	CARLTON MANOR	0.6%	77.5	—	OH	WASHINGTON COURT HOU	—	—
3405	LADY OF THE OAKS RETIREMENT MANOR	0.6%	77.5	—	LA	LAFAYETTE	0	—
3406	SMITH NURSING AND REHABILITATION LP	0.6%	77.5	—	TX	WOLFE CITY	—	—
3407	GOOD SAMARITAN SOCIETY - ST PETER	0.6%	77.5	—	MN	ST PETER	—	—
3408	COMMUNITY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL S N F	0.6%	77.5	—	NY	HAMILTON	—	—
3409	WEST REST HAVEN INC	0.6%	77.5	—	TX	WEST	—	—
3410	NATIONAL PARK MEDICAL CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	AR	HOT SPRINGS	0	—
3411	VIDANT CHOWAN HOSPITAL	0.6%	77.5	—	NC	EDENTON	—	—
3412	JASPER NURSING AND REHABILITATION LP	0.6%	77.5	—	TX	JASPER	—	—
3413	CENTER FOR CLINICAL CARE, THE	0.6%	77.5	—	OH	CLEVELAND	—	—
3414	VISTA POINTE REHABILITATION AND CARE CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	OK	MIDWEST CITY	0	—
3415	CASTLEVIEW NURSING AND REHAB OF STEPHENVILLE	0.6%	77.5	—	TX	STEPHENVILLE	0	—
3416	SOPHIA LYN CONVALESCENT HOSPITAL	0.6%	77.5	—	CA	PASADENA	—	—
3417	SALEM NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER OF TUSKEGEE	0.6%	77.5	—	AL	TUSKEGEE	0	—
3418	SUBACUTE CARE CTR SOUTHERN MD	0.6%	77.5	—	MD	CLINTON	—	—
3419	OAKWOOD BONE AND JOINT INSTITUTE - SKILL REHAB CTR	0.6%	77.5	—	MI	TAYLOR	—	—
3420	REHABILITATION CENTER OF ST PETE	0.6%	77.5	—	FL	SAINT PETERSBURG	0	—
3421	NORTH ARKANSAS REGIONAL MEDICAL CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	AR	HARRISON	—	—
3422	TAMPA COMMUNITY HOSPITAL	0.6%	77.5	—	FL	TAMPA	0	—
3423	SOUTHAVEN NURSING CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	TX	DALLAS	0	—
3424	GOLDEN LIVINGCENTER-COLONIAL MANOR OF ALBANY	0.6%	77.5	—	MO	ALBANY	—	—
3425	GOOD SAMARITAN SOCIETY - PELICAN RAPIDS	0.6%	77.5	—	MN	PELICAN RAPIDS	0	—
3426	LA HACIENDA NURSING HOME INC	0.6%	77.5	—	TX	SAN DIEGO	0	—
3427	WOODBINE HEALTHCARE AND REHABILITATION CENTRE	0.6%	77.5	—	MO	GLADSTONE	—	—
3428	SHERWOOD MANOR NURSING HOME	0.6%	77.5	—	OK	TULSA	0	—
3429	MORNINGSIDE NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	IA	SIOUX CITY	0	—
3430	GRANITE HILLS CONVALESCENT HOSPITAL	0.6%	77.5	—	CA	EL CAJON	0	—
3431	COLONIAL LODGE CARE CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	OK	MCALESTER	—	—
3432	LOST RIVERS LIVING CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	ID	ARCO	0	—
3433	MEXIA NURSING HOME	0.6%	77.5	—	TX	MEXIA	—	—
3434	SAINT ANGELA CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	OH	PEPPER PIKE	—	—
3435	COUNTRYSIDE CARE CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	NY	DELHI	0	—
3436	WHITE SENIOR LIVING	0.6%	77.5	—	SD	WHITE	—	—
3437	RIDGECREST HEALTHCARE CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	CA	RIDGECREST	0	—
3438	PIETY CORNER NURSING HOME	0.6%	77.5	—	MA	WALTHAM	0	—
3439	GOLDEN LIVINGCENTER - MEDICAL ARTS	0.6%	77.5	—	GA	LAWRENCEVILLE	—	—
3440	POPE COUNTY CARE CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	IL	GOLCONDA	—	—
3441	HERITAGE MANOR OF CANTON	0.6%	77.5	—	TX	CANTON	0	—
3442	MAGNUMCARE OF ALBION, LLC	0.6%	77.5	—	MI	ALBION	—	—
3443	ST. THERESE CONVALESCENT HOSP	0.6%	77.5	—	CA	HAYWARD	0	—
3444	THROCKMORTON NURSING & REHABILITATION	0.6%	77.5	—	TX	THROCKMORTON	—	—
3445	SIERRA NEVADA MEM HOSP	0.6%	77.5	—	CA	GRASS VALLEY	—	—
3446	LEXINGTON MEDICAL LODGE	0.6%	77.5	C	TX	FARMERSVILLE	0	NOCONA HOSPITAL DISTRICT
3447	GOLDEN ACRES LORAIN CO NURSING	0.6%	77.5	—	OH	AMHERST	0	—
3448	COMMUNITY CARE INC	0.6%	77.5	—	KS	CLIFTON	—	—
3449	SCHOELLKOPF HEALTH CENTER	0.6%	77.5	A	NY	NIAGARA FALLS	120	—
3450	(CLOSED) IMPERIAL GARDENS HEALTH AND REHABILIATION	0.6%	77.5	—	TN	MADISON	—	—

Showing 3,401–3,450 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.