621 TENTH STREET, NIAGARA FALLS, NY 14302 · CCN 335376
Composite
19.2 / 100 percentile
Peer group
snf n = 14,684
Evidence depth
deep
Certified beds
120
Model
v1.2
Reads as: riskier than 19.2% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
NY median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.79
3.33
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.36
0.43
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.65
3.03
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.85
3.44
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
110.5
3.79
0.36
1.04
2.40
3.65
0.0%
2025Q3
92
111.6
3.64
0.37
0.93
2.34
3.40
0.0%
2025Q2
91
108.7
3.68
0.35
1.02
2.31
3.36
0.0%
2025Q1
90
106.8
3.43
0.38
0.91
2.14
3.18
0.0%
2024Q4
92
107.8
3.50
0.36
0.91
2.22
3.25
0.0%
2024Q3
92
111.6
3.39
0.36
0.99
2.04
3.08
0.0%
2024Q2
91
108.8
3.55
0.41
0.99
2.16
3.21
0.0%
2024Q1
91
107.7
3.55
0.33
1.06
2.16
3.11
0.0%
2023Q4
92
103.9
3.56
0.33
1.05
2.18
3.04
0.0%
2023Q3
92
107.2
3.69
0.34
1.00
2.35
3.26
0.0%
2023Q2
91
105.3
3.62
0.30
0.96
2.36
3.15
0.1%
2023Q1
90
105.0
3.33
0.19
1.00
2.15
3.05
3.9%
2022Q4
92
101.5
3.78
0.23
1.02
2.53
3.35
35.0%
2022Q3
92
87.3
3.97
0.28
1.00
2.69
3.61
26.0%
2022Q2
91
88.3
3.37
0.29
0.93
2.15
2.89
18.3%
2022Q1
90
90.3
3.11
0.40
0.92
1.80
2.71
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
19
B × 1D × 13E × 2F × 3
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2025-08-22
Health
F0554
Allow residents to self-administer drugs if determined clinically appropriate.
D
2025-10-14
2025-08-22
Health
F0658
Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality.
D
2025-10-14
2025-08-22
Health
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2025-10-14
2025-08-22
Health
F0685
Assist a resident in gaining access to vision and hearing services.
D
2025-10-14
2025-08-22
Health
F0700
Try different approaches before using a bed rail. If a bed rail is needed, the facility must (1) assess a resident for safety risk; (2) review these risks and benefits with the resident/representative; (3) get informed consent; and (4) Correctly install and maintain the bed rail.
D
2025-10-14
2025-08-22
Health
F0730
Observe each nurse aide's job performance and give regular training.
B
2025-10-14
2025-08-22
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2025-10-14
2025-08-22
Health · complaint
F0925
Make sure there is a pest control program to prevent/deal with mice, insects, or other pests.
F
2025-10-14
2025-05-06
Health · complaint
F0925
Make sure there is a pest control program to prevent/deal with mice, insects, or other pests.
F
2025-07-01
2025-02-12
Health · complaint
F0690
Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections.
D
2025-04-01
2025-02-12
Health · complaint
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2025-04-01
2024-11-12
Health · complaint
F0925
Make sure there is a pest control program to prevent/deal with mice, insects, or other pests.
F
2025-01-06
2023-08-22
Health
F0561
Honor the resident's right to and the facility must promote and facilitate resident self-determination through support of resident choice.
D
2023-10-02
2023-08-22
Health
F0607
Develop and implement policies and procedures to prevent abuse, neglect, and theft.
E
2023-10-02
2023-08-22
Health
F0756
Ensure a licensed pharmacist perform a monthly drug regimen review, including the medical chart, following irregularity reporting guidelines in developed policies and procedures.
D
2023-10-02
2023-08-22
Health
F0758
Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited.
D
2023-10-02
2023-08-22
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
E
2023-10-02
2021-11-23
Health
F0610
Respond appropriately to all alleged violations.
D
2022-01-21
2021-11-23
Health
F0758
Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited.
D
2022-01-21
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
74
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
ABBOTT, SARAH
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-02-21
current
pecos_ownership
ABRAMS, TINA
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
2022-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
BAJWA, RAJINDER
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
BAJWA, RAJINDER
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
2022-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
BIANCO, CYNTHIA
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
2016-08-22
current
pecos_ownership
BRADLEY, ROBERT
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
2016-08-23
current
pecos_ownership
CAMPBELL, RONALD
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
2016-08-23
current
pecos_ownership
DUBOIS, MATTHEW
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2022-10-08
current
pecos_ownership
DUBOIS, MATTHEW
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-10-15
current
pecos_ownership
FELDMAN, MATTHEW
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
2022-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
GORMAN, GERALD
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2022-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
GRECO, JOHN
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
2022-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
HARVEY, KATHY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2000-08-14
current
pecos_ownership
KING, DON
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
2016-08-23
current
pecos_ownership
KOMULA, ANNEKE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-10-17
current
pecos_ownership
LAVIGNE, MARION
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
2016-08-23
current
pecos_ownership
MERTZ, BONNIE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-06-19
current
pecos_ownership
MUSCARELLA, PETER
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
NEFF-PROKOP, MARISA
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2023-03-15
current
pecos_ownership
NEFF-PROKOP, MARISA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-17
current
pecos_ownership
NOLAN-POWELL, JUDITH
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
2016-08-23
current
pecos_ownership
PERRY, MARK
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
2016-08-23
current
pecos_ownership
PRIDGEN, CRAIG
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2022-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
RADER, CHARLES
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
2016-08-23
current
pecos_ownership
RADER, CHARLES
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2016-08-22
current
pecos_ownership
ROSCETTI, JAMES
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
2016-08-23
current
pecos_ownership
ROSCETTI, JAMES
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2016-08-22
current
pecos_ownership
RUFFOLO, JOSEPH
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
2016-08-23
current
pecos_ownership
SAUVAGEAU, PHILIP
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2023-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
SAUVAGEAU, PHILIP
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
SCARBROUGH, KAYLA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-06-17
current
pecos_ownership
SHANLEY, PATRICIA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-04-17
current
pecos_ownership
STOM, ELIZABETH
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2010-10-09
current
pecos_ownership
TEIXEIRA, GIANNA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-02-07
current
pecos_ownership
TOOHEY, MARGARET
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2016-08-22
current
pecos_ownership
TOOHEY, MARGARET
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
2016-08-23
current
pecos_ownership
VILARDO, LISA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-01-27
current
pecos_ownership
CHARLES RADER
CORPORATE OFFICER
100%
2016-08-22
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CRAIG PRIDGEN
CORPORATE OFFICER
100%
2022-03-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CYNTHIA BIANCO
CORPORATE OFFICER
100%
2016-08-22
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DON KING
CORPORATE OFFICER
100%
2016-08-23
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
GERALD GORMAN
CORPORATE OFFICER
100%
2022-03-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JAMES ROSCETTI
CORPORATE OFFICER
100%
2016-08-22
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOHN GRECO
CORPORATE OFFICER
100%
2022-03-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOSEPH RUFFOLO
CORPORATE OFFICER
100%
2016-08-23
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JUDITH NOLAN-POWELL
CORPORATE OFFICER
100%
2016-08-23
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARGARET TOOHEY
CORPORATE OFFICER
100%
2016-08-22
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARION LAVIGNE
CORPORATE OFFICER
100%
2016-08-23
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARISA NEFF-PROKOP
CORPORATE OFFICER
100%
2023-03-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARK PERRY
CORPORATE OFFICER
100%
2016-08-23
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MATTHEW FELDMAN
CORPORATE OFFICER
100%
2022-03-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PETER MUSCARELLA
CORPORATE OFFICER
100%
2025-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RAJINDER BAJWA
CORPORATE OFFICER
100%
2022-03-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ROBERT BRADLEY
CORPORATE OFFICER
100%
2016-08-23
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RONALD CAMPBELL
CORPORATE OFFICER
100%
2016-08-23
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TINA ABRAMS
CORPORATE OFFICER
100%
2022-03-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MATTHEW DUBOIS
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2022-10-08
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PHILIP SAUVAGEAU
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2023-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ANNEKE KOMULA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-10-17
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BONNIE MERTZ
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-06-19
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHARLES RADER
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
2016-08-23
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ELIZABETH STOM
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2010-10-09
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
GIANNA TEIXEIRA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-02-07
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JAMES ROSCETTI
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
2016-08-23
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KATHY HARVEY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2000-08-14
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KAYLA SCARBROUGH
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-06-17
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LISA VILARDO
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-01-27
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARGARET TOOHEY
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
2016-08-23
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARISA NEFF-PROKOP
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-17
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MATTHEW DUBOIS
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-10-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PATRICIA SHANLEY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-04-17
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PHILIP SAUVAGEAU
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RAJINDER BAJWA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SARAH ABBOTT
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-02-21
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
0
No related-party cost years on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
28
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 36063
acs median gross
0
$625
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 36063
fmr
0
$1,105
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 36063
acs median gross
1
$691
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 36063
fmr
1
$1,139
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 36063
acs median gross
2
$915
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 36063
fmr
2
$1,343
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 36063
acs median gross
3
$1,143
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 36063
fmr
3
$1,640
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 36063
acs median gross
4
$1,088
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 36063
fmr
4
$1,869
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 36063
acs median gross
5
$1,027
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 36063
acs median gross
$899
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 36063
acs recent mover gross
$1,069
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 14302
payment standard 110
0
$968
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 14302
payment standard 90
0
$792
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 14302
safmr
0
$880
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 14302
payment standard 110
1
$1,001
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 14302
payment standard 90
1
$819
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 14302
safmr
1
$910
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 14302
payment standard 110
2
$1,177
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 14302
payment standard 90
2
$963
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 14302
safmr
2
$1,070
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 14302
payment standard 110
3
$1,441
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 14302
payment standard 90
3
$1,179
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 14302
safmr
3
$1,310
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 14302
payment standard 110
4
$1,639
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 14302
payment standard 90
4
$1,341
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 14302
safmr
4
$1,490
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.