Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

3,101–3,150

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
3101	CAPITOLA CARE CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	CA	SANTA CRUZ	0	—
3102	LOURDES TRANSITIONAL CARE	0.6%	77.5	—	KY	PADUCAH	—	—
3103	Marion Nursing Center, Inc.	0.6%	77.5	—	SC	Marion	0	—
3104	OAK MANOR NURSING HOME	0.6%	77.5	—	TX	NACOGDOCHES	—	—
3105	SOUTH BOSTON MANOR	0.6%	77.5	—	VA	SOUTH BOSTON	—	—
3106	VILLA AT MOUNT CARMEL, LLC	0.6%	77.5	—	WI	MILWAUKEE	—	—
3107	LAKESHORE CONV HOSP	0.6%	77.5	—	CA	OAKLAND	—	—
3108	Forest View Rehabilitation Center	0.6%	77.5	—	NC	Durham	—	—
3109	DEACONESS HOSPITAL, SNF	0.6%	77.5	—	OK	OKLAHOMA CITY	—	—
3110	OAK PARK DOCTOR'S CARE	0.6%	77.5	—	LA	LAKE CHARLES	0	—
3111	MCCURTAIN MANOR NURSING HOME	0.6%	77.5	—	OK	BROKEN BOW	0	—
3112	PARIS SKILLED NURSING FACILITY INC	0.6%	77.5	—	TX	PARIS	—	—
3113	PROVIDENCE SEASIDE HOSPITAL	0.6%	77.5	—	OR	SEASIDE	—	—
3114	ADVENTIST HEALTHCARE SLIGO CRE	0.6%	77.5	—	MD	TAKOMA PARK	0	—
3115	PARK VILLA, LTC	0.6%	77.5	—	IN	MARION	0	—
3116	CARTWHEEL LODGE OF GONZALES	0.6%	77.5	—	TX	GONZALES	0	—
3117	ST BERNARDS MEDICAL CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	AR	JONESBORO	—	—
3118	PLEASANT CARE CONV - NOVATO	0.6%	77.5	—	CA	NOVATO	—	—
3119	(CLOSED) BAPTIST REHABILITATION-GERMANTOWN	0.6%	77.5	—	TN	GERMANTOWN	—	—
3120	TEXAN NURSING & REHAB OF GLADEWATER LLC	0.6%	77.5	—	TX	GLADEWATER	—	—
3121	MISSION PALMS NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	FL	WEST PALM BEACH	0	—
3122	MURPHY HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER OF DUMAS	0.6%	77.5	—	AR	DUMAS	0	—
3123	LAFAYETTE CARE CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	LA	LAFAYETTE	—	—
3124	NORTH CREEK HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	WA	BOTHELL	—	—
3125	LYNNHAVEN NURSING CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	TX	CORPUS CHRISTI	—	—
3126	ELK CROSSING	0.6%	77.5	—	OK	DUNCAN	0	—
3127	BERMUDA TERRACE NURSING & REHAB CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	NC	ADVANCE	0	—
3128	GUARDIAN ANGEL HEALTH CARE INC	0.6%	77.5	—	MS	MARION	0	—
3129	GOOD SAMARITAN SOCIETY - HOFFMAN	0.6%	77.5	—	MN	HOFFMAN	—	—
3130	FAIRVIEW HOSPITAL SKILLED NURSING UNIT	0.6%	77.5	—	OH	CLEVELAND	—	—
3131	OTTERBEIN SUNSET HOUSE	0.6%	77.5	C	OH	TOLEDO	24	OTTERBEIN HOME
3132	MILLBRAE SERRA CONVALESCENT HOSPITAL	0.6%	77.5	—	CA	MILLBRAE	—	—
3133	HOWARD TWILIGHT MANOR	0.6%	77.5	—	KS	HOWARD	0	—
3134	ANAHEIM GENERAL HOSP-BUENA PARK CAMPUS D/P SNF	0.6%	77.5	—	CA	BUENA PARK	—	—
3135	WISH-I-AH HEALTHCARE & WELLNESS CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	CA	AUBERRY	—	—
3136	ACUITY SPECIALTY HOSPITAL OF ARIZONA AT SUN CITY	0.6%	77.5	—	AZ	SUN CITY	0	—
3137	AMERISA COURT	0.6%	77.5	—	TX	DENVER CITY	0	—
3138	OLNEY HEALTHCARE CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	TX	OLNEY	0	—
3139	CAMBRIDGE SPRINGS REHABILITATION & NURSING CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	PA	CAMBRIDGE SPRINGS	—	—
3140	HEATHER HILL CARE COMMUNITIES 2	0.6%	77.5	—	OH	CHARDON	—	—
3141	HURSTBOURNE CARE CENTRE AT STONY BROOK	0.6%	77.5	—	KY	LOUISVILLE	0	—
3142	WACHUSETT EXTENDED CARE FACILITY	0.6%	77.5	—	MA	HOLDEN	—	—
3143	METHODIST HOSPITAL OF SO. CA	0.6%	77.5	—	CA	ARCADIA	—	—
3144	WEST CHESTER NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	OH	WEST CHESTER	—	—
3145	EMMANUEL CONVALESCENT HOSPITAL OF LOS GATOS	0.6%	77.5	—	CA	LOS GATOS	0	—
3146	ASPEN CARE CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	UT	OGDEN	—	—
3147	KANKAKEE NURSING & REHAB CTR	0.6%	77.5	—	IL	KANKAKEE	0	—
3148	Royal Terrace Nursing & Rehabilitation Center	0.6%	77.5	—	KS	OLATHE	—	—
3149	KENDALL HOUSE WELLNESS & REHABILITATION	0.6%	77.5	B	TX	BOERNE	0	MORNINGSIDE MINISTRIES
3150	NATHAN MILLER CENTER FOR NURSING CARE	0.6%	77.5	—	NY	WHITE PLAINS	—	—

Showing 3,101–3,150 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.