Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

3,051–3,100

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
3051	JACOBSON MEMORIAL HOSPITAL CARE CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	ND	ELGIN	—	—
3052	GOOD SAMARITAN SOCIETY - GIBBON	0.6%	77.5	—	NE	GIBBON	—	—
3053	GREENS AT CREEKSIDE, THE	0.6%	77.5	—	MO	KANSAS CITY	0	—
3054	CLEBURNE REHABILITATION AND HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	TX	CLEBURNE	0	—
3055	EDWARD WHITE SKILLED NURSING UNIT	0.6%	77.5	—	FL	SAINT PETERSBURG	—	—
3056	GREENSPRING NURSING	0.6%	77.5	—	MD	BALTIMORE	—	—
3057	SANFORD SUBACUTE	0.6%	77.5	—	ND	BISMARCK	—	—
3058	ARCHER CITY NURSING CENTER	0.6%	77.5	A	TX	ARCHER CITY	0	—
3059	EMMANUEL CONV - SAN JOAQUIN	0.6%	77.5	—	CA	BAKERSFIELD	0	—
3060	BAYWOOD COURT D/P SNF OF EDEN HOSPITAL	0.6%	77.5	—	CA	CASTRO VALLEY	—	—
3061	LINCOLN HOSPITAL	0.6%	77.5	—	WA	DAVENPORT	—	—
3062	ALPINE VALLEY CARE CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	TX	ALPINE	—	—
3063	FAYETTEVILLE CITY HOSPITAL AND GERIATRIC CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	AR	FAYETTEVILLE	—	—
3064	WHIDDEN MEM. HOSP. TCU	0.6%	77.5	—	MA	EVERETT	—	—
3065	GENESIS HEALTHCARE SYSTEM	0.6%	77.5	—	OH	ZANESVILLE	—	—
3066	FOREST OAKS NURSING HOME	0.6%	77.5	—	TX	HAMILTON	—	—
3067	MERCY MEDICAL CTR SUBACUTE	0.6%	77.5	—	WI	OSHKOSH	—	—
3068	TERRY HAVEN NURSING CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	TX	MOUNT VERNON	—	—
3069	WESTHAVEN NURSING CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	TX	FORT WORTH	0	—
3070	VILLA AT RIVER PARKWAY (THE)	0.6%	77.5	—	WI	MILWAUKEE	—	—
3071	MEDA NIPPLE CONVALESCENT HOME	0.6%	77.5	—	PA	THOMPSONTOWN	0	—
3072	SHORE MEMORIAL HOSPITAL	0.6%	77.5	—	VA	NASSAWADOX	—	—
3073	WHISPERING PINES NURSING CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	OK	NORMAN	0	—
3074	Rocky Mountain Care - Maple Dell	0.6%	77.5	B	UT	Payson	76	—
3075	COLORADO FAYETTE MEDICAL CTR	0.6%	77.5	—	TX	WEIMAR	0	—
3076	MEADOWS AT PUTNAM ACRES THE	0.6%	77.5	—	OH	OTTAWA	0	—
3077	MT ASCUTNEY NURSING HOME	0.6%	77.5	—	VT	WINDSOR	—	—
3078	PARKER OAKS COMMUNITIES INC	0.6%	77.5	—	MN	WINNEBAGO	0	—
3079	DAVIS HEALTHCARE CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	CA	DAVIS	—	—
3080	ST CATHERINE HEALTHCARE AND REHABILITATION CTR	0.6%	77.5	—	NM	ALBUQUERQUE	0	—
3081	WINDSOR MANOR HEALTHCARE CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	IN	INDIANAPOLIS	0	—
3082	HOCKING VALLEY COMMUNITY HOSP SNF	0.6%	77.5	—	OH	LOGAN	—	—
3083	PROGRESSIVE CARE CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	PA	UNIONTOWN	—	—
3084	BIALYSTOKER CENTER FOR NURSING AND REHABILITATION	0.6%	77.5	—	NY	NEW YORK	—	—
3085	BENEDICTINE MANOR OF ARCADIA	0.6%	77.5	—	WI	ARCADIA	—	—
3086	ANSON HEALTHCARE CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	TX	ANSON	0	—
3087	FAIR OAKS	0.6%	77.5	—	IL	GREENVILLE	—	—
3088	GOLDEN LIVINGCENTER - FREDONIA	0.6%	77.5	—	KS	FREDONIA	—	—
3089	RESIDENCE AT PARK VIEW THE	0.6%	77.5	—	OH	CINCINNATI	—	—
3090	BOYCE MANOR NURSING HOME	0.6%	77.5	—	OK	HOLDENVILLE	0	—
3091	GOLDEN LIVINGCENTER - OTTER TAIL LAKE	0.6%	77.5	—	MN	BATTLE LAKE	0	—
3092	RUSSELL NURSING HOME	0.6%	77.5	—	OH	ALBANY	—	—
3093	AMBERWOOD CARE CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	TX	CELINA	0	—
3094	PITTSFIELD REHAB & NURSING	0.6%	77.5	—	ME	PITTSFIELD	—	—
3095	KINNEY NURSING HOME	0.6%	77.5	—	NY	GOUVERNEUR	—	—
3096	ST JOSEPHS HEALTH AND RETIREMENT CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	CA	OJAI	—	—
3097	RYAN NURSING HOME	0.6%	77.5	—	OK	RYAN	0	—
3098	GRIDLEY HEALTHCARE & WELLNESS CENTRE LLC	0.6%	77.5	—	CA	GRIDLEY	0	—
3099	KAUAI CARE CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	HI	WAIMEA	—	—
3100	HARBORSIDE NURSING AND REHAB CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	MD	BALTIMORE	0	—

Showing 3,051–3,100 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.