Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

2,801–2,850

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
2801	DURHAM-HENSLEY HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	0.7%	81.7	B	TN	CHUCKEY	75	—
2802	UTUQQANAAT INAAT	0.7%	81.7	A	AK	KOTZEBUE	18	—
2803	VILLA SCALABRINI SPECIAL CARE	0.7%	81.7	A	CA	SUN VALLEY	58	—
2804	Congregational Home, Inc.	0.7%	81.7	A	WI	BROOKFIELD	66	—
2805	COVENANT LIVING - WINDSOR PARK	0.7%	81.7	A	IL	CAROL STREAM	80	COVENANT LIVING COMMUNITIES & SERVICES
2806	SANCTUARY AT WILMINGTON PLACE	0.7%	81.7	C	OH	DAYTON	63	AHF MANAGEMENT CORP
2807	INTERCOMMUNITY CARE CENTER	0.7%	81.7	D	CA	LONG BEACH	147	—
2808	GARFIELD COUNTY HOSPITAL, LTCU	0.6%	77.5	—	WA	POMEROY	—	—
2809	ABBEY HILL NURSING AND REHABILITATION	0.6%	77.5	—	AR	HOT SPRINGS	0	—
2810	MORRISON HSP (FOUR SEASONS)	0.6%	77.5	—	IL	MORRISON	0	—
2811	(CLOSED) BAPTIST MEMORIAL HOSP-MEMPHIS SNF	0.6%	77.5	—	TN	MEMPHIS	—	—
2812	WYOMING MEDICAL CENTER TRANSITIONAL CARE UNIT	0.6%	77.5	—	WY	CASPER	—	—
2813	Britthaven Of Chapel Hill	0.6%	77.5	—	NC	Chapel Hill	—	—
2814	EASTWOOD CARE & REHAB, LLC	0.6%	77.5	—	TX	TYLER	0	—
2815	Clemson Area Retirement Center	0.6%	77.5	—	SC	Clemson	—	—
2816	EAST LIVERPOOL CITY HOSP SNF	0.6%	77.5	—	OH	EAST LIVERPOOL	—	—
2817	LAUREL HILL HEALTHCARE	0.6%	77.5	—	CT	WINSTED	—	—
2818	ROSEWOOD MANOR	0.6%	77.5	—	OH	YORKVILLE	0	—
2819	WAKEMED FUQUAY VARINA OUTPATIENT & SNF	0.6%	77.5	—	NC	FUQUAY VARINA	—	—
2820	CENTEGRA SPECIALTY HOSPITAL-WOODSTOCK	0.6%	77.5	—	IL	WOODSTOCK	—	—
2821	SAN JUAN AGING CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	PR	RIO PIEDRAS	—	—
2822	Fort Bayard Medical Center	0.6%	77.5	—	NM	Fort Bayard	0	—
2823	ROYAL CENTER (THE)	0.6%	77.5	—	MA	FALMOUTH	—	—
2824	Kings Daughters Medical Center	0.6%	77.5	—	KY	Ashland	—	—
2825	ST CHARLES CARE CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	KY	COVINGTON	—	—
2826	WM & SALLY TANDET CTR FOR CONT	0.6%	77.5	—	CT	STAMFORD	—	—
2827	ALPINE TRANSITIONAL REHABILITATION CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	UT	BRIGHAM CITY	—	—
2828	THE ROBERT MAPPLETHORPE AT RES TREATMENT FAC A N	0.6%	77.5	—	NY	NEW YORK	0	—
2829	OMAHA HEALTHCARE CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	TX	OMAHA	—	—
2830	CALIFORNIA PACIFIC MEDICAL CTR - CALIF EAST CAMPUS	0.6%	77.5	—	CA	SAN FRANCISCO	0	—
2831	MISSION GROVE HEALTHCARE & WELLNESS CENTRE	0.6%	77.5	—	CA	SOUTH PASADENA	0	—
2832	OAKS OF MID CITY NURSING AND REHAB CTR(THE)	0.6%	77.5	—	LA	BATON ROUGE	0	—
2833	ALL-AMERICAN CARE OF LITTLE ROCK	0.6%	77.5	—	AR	LITTLE ROCK	0	—
2834	MERCY HOSPITAL SPRINGFIELD	0.6%	77.5	—	MO	SPRINGFIELD	0	—
2835	SAINT CATHERINE HEALTHCARE CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	PA	ASHLAND	—	—
2836	LIBERTY NURSING CENTER OF TOLEDO, INC	0.6%	77.5	—	OH	TOLEDO	—	—
2837	LU ANN NURSING HOME	0.6%	77.5	—	IN	NAPPANEE	—	—
2838	HOMELAND CENTER	0.6%	77.5	A	PA	HARRISBURG	95	—
2839	KINDRED HOSPITAL PITTSBURGH - NORTH SHORE	0.6%	77.5	—	PA	ALLEGHENY	—	—
2840	PENNSYLVANIA HOSPITAL SKILLED CARE CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	PA	PHILADELPHIA	—	—
2841	CONTINUUM REHABILITATION HOSPITAL OF NORTH TEXAS L	0.6%	77.5	—	TX	FLOWER MOUND	—	—
2842	ARISTOCRAT WEST REHAB AND HEALTH CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	OH	CLEVELAND	—	—
2843	KATYVILLE HEALTHCARE CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	TX	KATY	—	—
2844	CHAMPLAIN VALLEY PHYSICIANS HOSP MED CTR T C U	0.6%	77.5	—	NY	PLATTSBURGH	—	—
2845	FINNIE GOOD SHEPHERD N H	0.6%	77.5	—	IL	GALATIA	—	—
2846	ST MICHAELS EV LUTHERAN HOME	0.6%	77.5	—	WI	FOUNTAIN CITY	0	—
2847	COLUMBUS NURSING AND REHABILITATION LP	0.6%	77.5	—	TX	COLUMBUS	—	—
2848	CHEBOYGAN MEM HOSPITAL LTCU	0.6%	77.5	—	MI	CHEBOYGAN	—	—
2849	ST HELENA HOSPITAL SNF	0.6%	77.5	—	CA	DEER PARK	0	—
2850	Grace Hall - Rehabilitation	0.6%	77.5	—	SC	Mt Pleasant	—	—

Showing 2,801–2,850 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.