Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

201–250

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
201	WEST HILLS HEALTH AND REHAB	8.0%	98.7	B	TN	KNOXVILLE	194	HILLCREST HEALTHCARE COMMUNITIES INC
202	Hudson Memorial Nursing Home	8.0%	98.7	A	AR	EL DORADO	108	—
203	Wauneta Care and Therapy Center	8.0%	98.7	B	NE	Wauneta	36	—
204	LACOBA HOMES INC	8.0%	98.7	B	MO	MONETT	79	—
205	AWE KUALAWAACHE CARE CENTER	8.0%	98.7	B	MT	CROW AGENCY	40	—
206	PLEASANT RIDGE MANOR EAST/WEST	8.0%	98.7	B	PA	GIRARD	300	—
207	Imperial Manor Nursing Home	8.0%	98.7	C	NE	Imperial	58	—
208	DOOLEY CENTER	7.9%	98.7	A	KS	ATCHISON	44	—
209	GOWER CONVALESCENT CENTER, INC	7.9%	98.7	B	MO	GOWER	82	—
210	FLEET LANDING	7.9%	98.6	A	FL	ATLANTIC BEACH	100	POLARIS ENDEAVORS INC
211	SURREY PLACE ST LUKES HOSPITAL SKILLED NURSING	7.9%	98.6	A	MO	CHESTERFIELD	130	ST LUKES EPISCOPAL PRESBYTERIAN HOSPITAL
212	WILKINSON RESIDENTIAL HEALTH CARE FACILITY	7.9%	98.6	A	NY	AMSTERDAM	160	—
213	MANOR, THE	7.8%	98.6	B	NJ	FREEHOLD	123	ATLANTIC HEALTH SYSTEM
214	Evans Senior Living Community	7.8%	98.6	A	IA	Cresco	43	—
215	LEWIS COUNTY GENERAL HOSPITAL-NURSING HOME UNIT	7.8%	98.6	B	NY	LOWVILLE	160	—
216	OVERTON COUNTY HEALTH AND REHAB CENTER	7.7%	98.6	A	TN	LIVINGSTON	125	—
217	HOMEWOOD LIVING FREDERICK	7.7%	98.6	A	MD	FREDERICK	120	—
218	LAWRENCE COUNTY MANOR	7.7%	98.6	B	MO	MOUNT VERNON	90	—
219	ROMAN EAGLE REHABILITATION AND HEALTH CARE CENTER	7.7%	98.6	B	VA	DANVILLE	312	—
220	BETHANY ST JOSEPH CARE CTR	7.7%	98.6	B	WI	LA CROSSE	100	—
221	JOURDAIN PERPICH EXT CARE FAC	7.7%	98.6	A	MN	REDLAKE	47	—
222	HOLY CROSS HEALTH CENTER	7.6%	98.6	A	NH	MANCHESTER	40	—
223	WALNUT HILLS NURSING HOME	7.6%	98.6	B	OH	WALNUT CREEK	56	—
224	BEVERLY PARK PLACE HEALTH AND REHAB	7.6%	98.6	A	TN	KNOXVILLE	271	HILLCREST HEALTHCARE COMMUNITIES INC
225	KNOX COUNTY NURSING HOME	7.5%	98.5	A	IL	KNOXVILLE	169	—
226	Lebanon Valley Brethren Home	7.5%	98.5	A	PA	PALMYRA	88	—
227	IREDELL MEMORIAL HOSPITAL INC	7.5%	98.5	A	NC	STATESVILLE	48	—
228	WESTY COMMUNITY CARE HOME	7.5%	98.5	B	KS	WESTMORELAND	40	—
229	White River Health Care Center	7.4%	98.5	A	SD	WHITE RIVER	52	—
230	Park View Haven Nursing Home	7.4%	98.5	C	NE	Coleridge	34	—
231	Beechwood Health Care Center, Inc.	7.4%	98.5	A	NY	GETZVILLE	272	—
232	Iowa Veterans Home	7.4%	98.5	A	IA	Marshalltown	702	—
233	MOORE FEW CARE CENTER	7.4%	98.5	D	MO	NEVADA	108	CHOICE REHABILITATION LLC
234	KENDAL AT LEXINGTON	7.3%	98.5	A	VA	LEXINGTON	60	—
235	CASA PROMESA	7.3%	98.5	D	NY	BRONX	108	—
236	Soldiers and Sailors Memorial Hospital Extended Ca	7.3%	98.5	A	NY	Penn Yan	152	—
237	HIGH HOPE CARE CENTER OF BRENHAM	7.2%	98.5	C	TX	BRENHAM	96	—
238	JOHN KNOX MANOR INC I I	7.2%	98.5	A	AL	MONTGOMERY	98	—
239	United Presbyterian Home	7.2%	98.4	A	IA	Washington	59	—
240	BIGFORK VALLEY COMMUNITIES	7.2%	98.4	B	MN	BIGFORK	40	—
241	LUTHERAN HOME, THE	7.2%	98.4	A	MO	CAPE GIRARDEAU	274	—
242	SHADY LANE GLOUCESTER CO HOME	7.2%	98.4	B	NJ	CLARKSBORO	60	—
243	KINGSWOOD SENIOR LIVING	7.2%	98.4	D	MO	KANSAS CITY	86	—
244	NORTHERN MONTANA CARE CENTER	7.2%	98.4	A	MT	HAVRE	135	—
245	LIVEWELL CONNECTICUT	7.1%	98.4	A	CT	PLANTSVILLE	120	—
246	Kimball County Manor	7.1%	98.4	B	NE	Kimball	49	—
247	GOOD SAMARITAN HOME	7.1%	98.4	B	IL	QUINCY	203	—
248	Mayflower Home	7.1%	98.4	A	IA	Grinnell	40	—
249	Galeon	7.1%	98.4	A	MN	OSAKIS	40	—
250	SANDSTONE HEIGHTS	7.1%	98.4	A	KS	LITTLE RIVER	36	—

Showing 201–250 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.