Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

1,201–1,250

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
1201	COMMUNITY PLACE	2.3%	92.2	A	MS	BRANDON	60	—
1202	PHELPS HEALTH	2.3%	92.2	A	MO	ROLLA	20	LIFEPOINT HEALTH INC
1203	MASONIC CENTER FOR HEALTH & REHAB INC	2.3%	92.2	A	WI	DOUSMAN	50	—
1204	ARRINGTON LIVING CENTER	2.3%	92.2	A	MS	COLLINS	60	—
1205	BAPTIST VILLAGE OF ENID	2.3%	92.2	B	OK	ENID	90	BAPTIST VILLAGE RETIREMENT COMMUNITIES OF OKLAHOMA INC
1206	JUDSON PARK	2.3%	92.1	C	OH	CLEVELAND	36	—
1207	SHENANDOAH VALLEY WESTMINSTER CANTERBURY	2.3%	92.1	A	VA	WINCHESTER	51	—
1208	GARVEY MANOR	2.3%	92.1	A	PA	HOLLIDAYSBURG	132	—
1209	Willowbrooke Court SC Ctr at Tryon Estates	2.3%	92.1	A	NC	Columbus	16	ACTS MANAGEMENT SERVICES INC
1210	ADMIRAL AT THE LAKE, THE	2.3%	92.1	B	IL	CHICAGO	36	—
1211	MADISON MEDICAL CENTER	2.3%	92.1	A	MO	FREDERICKTOWN	99	—
1212	CALIFORNIA HOME FOR THE AGED	2.2%	92.1	A	CA	FRESNO	120	—
1213	ELK CITY NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	2.2%	92.1	A	OK	ELK CITY	118	—
1214	ST JOSEPH'S HOME AL & NC, INC	2.2%	92.1	A	NJ	WOODBRIDGE	51	—
1215	FORREST MANOR NURSING CENTER	2.2%	92.1	B	OK	DEWEY	116	—
1216	BROOKE GROVE REHAB. & NSG CTR	2.2%	92.1	B	MD	SANDY SPRING	190	—
1217	Glacier Hills	2.2%	92.1	B	MI	Ann Arbor	105	TRINITY HEALTH CORPORATION
1218	Prairie Manor Care Center	2.2%	92.1	B	MN	BLOOMING PRAIRIE	39	—
1219	FAIRMOUNT HOMES	2.2%	92.1	A	PA	EPHRATA	114	—
1220	ST JOSEPH'S RESIDENCE	2.2%	92.0	A	CT	ENFIELD	25	—
1221	Platte County Legacy Home	2.2%	92.0	B	WY	Wheatland	50	—
1222	KNOPP NURSING & REHAB CENTER INC	2.2%	92.0	F	TX	FREDERICKSBURG	60	—
1223	REHABILITATION AND HEALTHCARE CENTER OF TAMPA	2.2%	92.0	D	FL	TAMPA	174	—
1224	HARMONY GARDENS	2.2%	92.0	A	MN	MAPLEWOOD	64	—
1225	WESTMINSTER VILLAGE	2.2%	92.0	B	IL	BLOOMINGTON	48	—
1226	Vian Nursing & Rehab, LLC	2.2%	92.0	B	OK	Vian	133	—
1227	South Lincoln Nursing Center	2.2%	92.0	A	WY	Kemmerer	24	—
1228	TRUSTEES OF EASTERN STAR HALL & HOME OF THE N Y S	2.2%	92.0	B	NY	ORISKANY	86	—
1229	TUDOR OAKS HEALTH CENTER	2.2%	92.0	C	WI	MUSKEGO	50	—
1230	WESLEY ENHANCED LIVING AT STAPELEY	2.2%	92.0	B	PA	PHILADELPHIA	120	—
1231	Spurgeon Manor	2.2%	92.0	A	IA	Dallas Center	55	—
1232	HEBRON OAKS	2.2%	92.0	B	WI	MADISON	70	OAKWOOD LUTHERAN SENIOR MINISTRIES INC
1233	Ellen Sagar Nursing Center	2.2%	92.0	A	SC	Union	113	SPARTANBURG REGIONAL HEALTH SERVICES DISTRICT INC
1234	RIVERSIDE	2.2%	92.0	A	WI	LA CROSSE	123	—
1235	OHIO LIVING CAPE MAY	2.2%	92.0	A	OH	WILMINGTON	23	—
1236	KUTZ REHABILITATION AND NURSING	2.2%	92.0	C	DE	WILMINGTON	90	—
1237	BETHEL HOME	2.2%	92.0	A	KS	MONTEZUMA	56	—
1238	Strawberry Point Lutheran Home	2.2%	92.0	A	IA	Strawberry Point	16	—
1239	Rosedale Green	2.2%	91.9	A	KY	Covington	176	—
1240	STONES RIVER MANOR, INC	2.2%	91.9	A	TN	MURFREESBORO	30	—
1241	FAIR ACRES GERIATRIC CENTER	2.2%	91.9	B	PA	LIMA	778	—
1242	MOUNDRIDGE MANOR	2.2%	91.9	A	KS	MOUNDRIDGE	78	—
1243	HERITAGE MANOR JEWISH HM FOR	2.2%	91.9	A	OH	YOUNGSTOWN	72	—
1244	Mission at Castle Rock	2.2%	91.9	B	WY	Green River	59	MISSION HEALTH SERVICES
1245	SHAKER PLACE REHABILITATION AND NURSING CENTER	2.2%	91.9	A	NY	ALBANY	250	—
1246	GENERATIONS CENTER OF SPENCER	2.2%	91.9	A	TN	SPENCER	70	—
1247	TRI-COUNTY NURSING HOME	2.2%	91.9	A	FL	TRENTON	81	—
1248	MOUNT NOTRE DAME HEALTH CENTER	2.2%	91.9	A	OH	CINCINNATI	40	—
1249	GUARDIAN ANGELS CARE CENTER	2.2%	91.8	B	MN	ELK RIVER	120	—
1250	Little Cottonwood Rehabilitation and Nursing	2.2%	91.8	B	UT	South Salt Lake	37	—

Showing 1,201–1,250 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.