Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

1,151–1,200

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
1151	Cloverlodge Care Center	2.4%	92.5	A	NE	St Edward	47	VETTER SENIOR LIVING
1152	THE DOROTHY & JOSEPH GOLDBERG HEALTHCARE CENTER	2.4%	92.5	A	CA	ENCINITAS	58	—
1153	WINDSOR NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER OF SAN D	2.4%	92.5	B	TX	San Diego	0	REGENCY INTEGRATED HEALTH SERVICES LLC
1154	GLENRIDGE ON PALMER RANCH INC.	2.4%	92.5	A	FL	SARASOTA	61	—
1155	Corwin Center At Emerald Heights	2.4%	92.5	A	WA	REDMOND	61	—
1156	ENTERPRISE ESTATES NURING CENTER	2.4%	92.5	A	KS	ENTERPRISE	40	—
1157	APOSTOLIC CHRISTIAN HOME OF EUREKA	2.4%	92.5	A	IL	EUREKA	100	—
1158	Willow Wood at Woldenberg Village	2.4%	92.4	C	LA	NEW ORLEANS	120	—
1159	GEORGE REGIONAL HEALTH & REHAB CENTER	2.4%	92.4	A	MS	LUCEDALE	59	LONG TERM CARE MANAGEMENT LLC
1160	THE VILLAS AT POWAY	2.4%	92.4	B	CA	POWAY	129	—
1161	WILLOW BROOK CHRISTIAN HOME	2.4%	92.4	B	OH	COLUMBUS	50	—
1162	GUY AND MARY FELT MANOR, INC	2.4%	92.4	A	PA	EMPORIUM	30	—
1163	EDENBROOK PINE HAVEN	2.3%	92.4	B	MN	PINE ISLAND	70	—
1164	MOUNTAIN VIEW NURSING HOME	2.3%	92.4	A	VA	ARODA	40	—
1165	COMMONS AT ORLANDO LUTHERAN TOWERS	2.3%	92.4	A	FL	ORLANDO	168	—
1166	PALM VILLAGE RETIREMENT COMM.	2.3%	92.4	A	CA	REEDLEY	120	—
1167	REFORMED CHURCH HOME	2.3%	92.4	B	NJ	OLD BRIDGE	108	—
1168	BELOVED HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	2.3%	92.4	F	MO	HANNIBAL	111	—
1169	ST CROIX HEALTH CENTER	2.3%	92.4	A	WI	NEW RICHMOND	50	—
1170	ELM TERRACE GARDENS	2.3%	92.4	A	PA	LANSDALE	72	—
1171	WESLEY TOWERS INC	2.3%	92.4	B	KS	HUTCHINSON	52	—
1172	TWIN CITY HEALTH CARE	2.3%	92.4	B	IN	GAS CITY	75	WITHAM MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
1173	BROOKE HAVEN HEALTHCARE	2.3%	92.4	D	MO	WEST PLAINS	120	WILLOW HEALTH CARE INC
1174	PIEDMONT HEALTH CARE CENTER	2.3%	92.4	A	AL	PIEDMONT	91	—
1175	LUTHERAN REHABILITATION AND SKILLED CARE CENTER	2.3%	92.4	A	MA	WORCESTER	150	ASCENTRIA CARE ALLIANCE INC
1176	MARIAN MANOR HEALTHCARE CENTER	2.3%	92.3	A	ND	GLEN ULLIN	54	—
1177	Lakewood Health System	2.3%	92.3	C	MN	STAPLES	87	—
1178	SUMMERS HEALTHCARE, LLC	2.3%	92.3	B	OK	OKEENE	48	—
1179	OUR LADYS HAVEN OF FAIRHAVEN INC	2.3%	92.3	C	MA	FAIRHAVEN	117	DIOCESAN HEALTH FACILITIES
1180	BRIAN CENTER OF FINCASTLE	2.3%	92.3	A	VA	FINCASTLE	60	KISSITO HEALTHCARE INC
1181	WESLEY VILLAGE	2.3%	92.3	C	PA	PITTSTON	160	—
1182	NOXUBEE COUNTY NURSING HOME	2.3%	92.3	A	MS	MACON	60	—
1183	GROVE MANOR	2.3%	92.3	C	PA	GROVE CITY	59	—
1184	Newaldaya Lifescapes	2.3%	92.3	C	IA	Cedar Falls	112	—
1185	VETERANS HOME OF CALIFORNIA - YOUNTVILLE - SNF	2.3%	92.2	B	CA	YOUNTVILLE	274	—
1186	INTERMOUNTAIN HEALTH HOLY ROSARY HOSPITAL	2.3%	92.2	B	MT	MILES CITY	84	INTERMOUNTAIN HEALTH CARE INC
1187	SNYDER VILLAGE	2.3%	92.2	A	IL	METAMORA	84	—
1188	SAINT JOSEPH VILLA	2.3%	92.2	A	PA	FLOURTOWN	106	—
1189	MOHUN HEALTH CARE CENTER	2.3%	92.2	A	OH	COLUMBUS	72	—
1190	MOORINGS OF ARLINGTON HEIGHTS	2.3%	92.2	A	IL	ARLINGTON HTS	92	PRESBYTERIAN HOMES
1191	HARMONEE HOUSE	2.3%	92.2	A	TX	AMHERST	35	—
1192	Prairie Ridge Care Center	2.3%	92.2	A	IA	Orange City	95	ORANGE CITY MUNICIPAL HOSPITAL
1193	Mayo Clinic Health System - Lake City	2.3%	92.2	C	MN	LAKE CITY	90	—
1194	Colonial Acres of Humboldt	2.3%	92.2	A	NE	Humboldt	49	—
1195	Richard M Campbell Veterans Nursing Home	2.3%	92.2	A	SC	Anderson	220	—
1196	FOUR SEASONS REHABILITATION & CARE	2.3%	92.2	C	OK	DURANT	122	—
1197	Notre Dame Long Term Care Center	2.3%	92.2	A	MA	WORCESTER	123	—
1198	Stewartville Care Center	2.3%	92.2	A	MN	STEWARTVILLE	50	—
1199	AVIATA AT ORANGE PARK	2.3%	92.2	B	FL	ORANGE PARK	120	—
1200	GRACE VILLAGE HEALTH CARE FACILITY	2.3%	92.2	B	IN	WINONA LAKE	71	WOODLAWN HOSPITAL

Showing 1,151–1,200 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.