Parallel model engine

ML Lab

the parallel engine — runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it · every finding is a reproducible SQL read

Open anomalies

499

data contradicting peers or own record

Open connections

2,907

implied by the ontology, stated nowhere

Last scan

2026-07-29

weekly · Mondays 09:40 UTC · pg_cron

Learned models

score refresh weekly · retrain monthly

Engine runs

Kind	Started	Finished	OK	Stats
anomaly_scan	2026-07-29	2026-07-29	yes	resolved=0 · penalty_spike=234 · staffing_cliff=127 · ownership_churn=0 · staffing_collapse=35 · high_risk_high_stars=103
connection_scan	2026-07-29	2026-07-29	yes	resolved=0 · serial_acquirer=5 · cross_chain_owner=500 · enforcement_cluster=938 · fleet_risk_signature=1464
retrain	2026-08-01	2026-08-01	FAILED	error=No module named 'numpy'
score_refresh	2026-08-03	2026-08-03	FAILED	error=permission denied for table cii_model_registry
model p_adverse_action_12m	2026-07-29	v0.1	default	R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
model p_chow_12m	2026-07-29	v0.1	default	R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.

scans execute inside Postgres on pg_cron; score refreshes and retrains run in the API process, triggered over pg_net — the cadence survives sandbox loss

Anomalies — 234 open · Penalty spike

All Staffing collapse Staffing cliff Risk vs stars divergence Ownership churn Penalty spike

Facility	Type	Signal	Setting	State	City	First seen
BROOKSIDE INN	Penalty spike	no prior fines	snf	CO	CASTLE ROCK	2026-07-29
Merkel Nursing Center	Penalty spike	no prior fines	snf	TX	Merkel	2026-07-29
KINZUA NURSING AND REHAB	Penalty spike	no prior fines	snf	PA	WARREN	2026-07-29
AVIATA AT BIG BEND	Penalty spike	no prior fines	snf	FL	PERRY	2026-07-29
Fort Dodge Health and Rehabilitation	Penalty spike	no prior fines	snf	IA	Fort Dodge	2026-07-29
MERIDIAN CARE OF ALICE	Penalty spike	no prior fines	snf	TX	ALICE	2026-07-29
Norfolk Health Care Center	Penalty spike	no prior fines	snf	VA	NORFOLK	2026-07-29
GOLDEN YEARS CENTER FOR REHAB AND HEALTHCARE	Penalty spike	no prior fines	snf	MO	HARRISONVILLE	2026-07-29
Clayton Rehabilitation and Healthcare Center	Penalty spike	no prior fines	snf	NC	Clayton	2026-07-29
Advanced Rehabilitation and Healthcare of Athens	Penalty spike	no prior fines	snf	TX	Athens	2026-07-29
MILLER HEALTH CARE CENTER	Penalty spike	no prior fines	snf	IL	KANKAKEE	2026-07-29
GARDENS OF EUCLID BEACH	Penalty spike	no prior fines	snf	OH	CLEVELAND	2026-07-29
THE HAMPTONS CENTER FOR REHABILITATION AND NURSING	Penalty spike	no prior fines	snf	NY	SOUTH HAMPTON	2026-07-29
Buena Vida Nursing and Rehab-San Antonio	Penalty spike	no prior fines	snf	TX	SAN ANTONIO	2026-07-29
Good Samaritan Society - Windom	Penalty spike	no prior fines	snf	MN	WINDOM	2026-07-29
Trinity Center at Luther Park	Penalty spike	no prior fines	snf	IA	Des Moines	2026-07-29
FRANCISCAN CARE CTR SYLVANIA	Penalty spike	no prior fines	snf	OH	TOLEDO	2026-07-29
Peach Tree Place	Penalty spike	no prior fines	snf	TX	Weatherford	2026-07-29
OLD DOMINION REHABILITATION AND NURSING	Penalty spike	no prior fines	snf	VA	NEWPORT NEWS	2026-07-29
TRENTON GARDENS REHABILITATION AND NURSING CENTER	Penalty spike	no prior fines	snf	NJ	TRENTON	2026-07-29
Fairlane Gardens Nursing and Rehab at Reading	Penalty spike	no prior fines	snf	PA	READING	2026-07-29
Arbor Grace Guest Care Center	Penalty spike	no prior fines	snf	TX	Kilgore	2026-07-29
Chapters Living of Council Bluffs	Penalty spike	no prior fines	snf	IA	Council Bluffs	2026-07-29
WATERS EDGE AT PORT JEFFERSON FOR REHAB AND NRSG	Penalty spike	no prior fines	snf	NY	PORT JEFFERSON	2026-07-29
Benedictine Care Community	Penalty spike	no prior fines	snf	MN	ADA	2026-07-29

trailing-12-month fines ≥$50k and ≥3x the facility's own prior 3-year annual average

Connections — 2,907 open

All Serial acquirer Cross-chain owner Fleet risk signature Enforcement cluster

Subject	Relation	Strength	Evidence	First seen
IOWA 5784 LLC	Fleet risk signature	+47.8 vs national · 5 facilities	states: IAfleet mean 97.4 vs national 49.7	2026-07-29
AMARANTHINE HOLDINGS LLC	Fleet risk signature	+47.2 vs national · 5 facilities	states: IAfleet mean 96.8 vs national 49.7	2026-07-29
CARESAGE ADMINISTRATIVE CONSULTING LLC	Fleet risk signature	+47.2 vs national · 5 facilities	states: IAfleet mean 96.8 vs national 49.7	2026-07-29
JSJ 2020 FAMILY TR	Fleet risk signature	+47.2 vs national · 5 facilities	states: IAfleet mean 96.8 vs national 49.7	2026-07-29
FORVIS MAZARS LLP	Cross-chain owner	47 chains · 251 facilities	chains: 10 26 NATIONWIDE TR, ADAMS COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL, ASBR HOLDINGS LLC, ATRIUM CENTERS MANAGEMENT LLC…	2026-07-29
HOWARD DANIEL	Fleet risk signature	+46.2 vs national · 6 facilities	states: MDfleet mean 95.9 vs national 49.7	2026-07-29
PANCER AARON	Fleet risk signature	+46.0 vs national · 6 facilities	states: ILfleet mean 95.6 vs national 49.7	2026-07-29
KEYSTONE HOLDING GROUP II LLC	Fleet risk signature	+45.7 vs national · 5 facilities	states: ILfleet mean 95.4 vs national 49.7	2026-07-29
HCF HOMECARE INC	Fleet risk signature	+45.4 vs national · 5 facilities	states: OH, PAfleet mean 95.1 vs national 49.7	2026-07-29
BLOOMING WILLOW PARTNERS LLC	Fleet risk signature	+45.3 vs national · 5 facilities	states: MOfleet mean 95 vs national 49.7	2026-07-29
DERHOBEN TRUST	Fleet risk signature	+45.3 vs national · 5 facilities	states: MOfleet mean 95 vs national 49.7	2026-07-29
PAS B SOL TRUST	Fleet risk signature	+45.3 vs national · 5 facilities	states: MOfleet mean 95 vs national 49.7	2026-07-29
WILDFLOWER HEALTHCARE LLC	Fleet risk signature	+45.3 vs national · 5 facilities	states: MOfleet mean 95 vs national 49.7	2026-07-29
GOLDEN LAUREN	Fleet risk signature	+44.8 vs national · 8 facilities	states: TXfleet mean 94.5 vs national 49.7	2026-07-29
DOYLE MARIA	Fleet risk signature	+44.7 vs national · 5 facilities	states: IN, KYfleet mean 94.3 vs national 49.7	2026-07-29
JACOBS HYMAN	Fleet risk signature	+44.7 vs national · 8 facilities	states: NJfleet mean 94.3 vs national 49.7	2026-07-29
WATSON NATHAN	Fleet risk signature	+44.7 vs national · 5 facilities	states: TXfleet mean 94.4 vs national 49.7	2026-07-29
SHABAT RONALD	Fleet risk signature	+44.6 vs national · 5 facilities	states: ILfleet mean 94.2 vs national 49.7	2026-07-29
GOLDEN SHAWN	Fleet risk signature	+44.4 vs national · 5 facilities	states: TXfleet mean 94.1 vs national 49.7	2026-07-29
SLM INVESTMENTS LLC	Fleet risk signature	+44.4 vs national · 5 facilities	states: TXfleet mean 94.1 vs national 49.7	2026-07-29
CHAD UNVERFERTH	Fleet risk signature	+44.1 vs national · 6 facilities	states: OH, PAfleet mean 93.8 vs national 49.7	2026-07-29
METTERNICH CHRISTOPHER	Fleet risk signature	+44.1 vs national · 8 facilities	states: NJfleet mean 93.8 vs national 49.7	2026-07-29
CELESTE KLAY	Fleet risk signature	+43.9 vs national · 6 facilities	states: OH, PAfleet mean 93.6 vs national 49.7	2026-07-29
KERRI ROMES	Fleet risk signature	+43.9 vs national · 6 facilities	states: OH, PAfleet mean 93.6 vs national 49.7	2026-07-29
PRINCE DANNY	Fleet risk signature	+43.9 vs national · 12 facilities	states: TXfleet mean 93.6 vs national 49.7	2026-07-29

relationships the ontology implies but no single source states