Parallel model engine
ML Lab
Open anomalies
499
data contradicting peers or own record
Open connections
2,907
implied by the ontology, stated nowhere
Last scan
2026-07-29
weekly · Mondays 09:40 UTC · pg_cron
Learned models
2
score refresh weekly · retrain monthly
Engine runs
| Kind | Started | Finished | OK | Stats |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| anomaly_scan | 2026-07-29 | 2026-07-29 | yes | resolved=0 · penalty_spike=234 · staffing_cliff=127 · ownership_churn=0 · staffing_collapse=35 · high_risk_high_stars=103 |
| connection_scan | 2026-07-29 | 2026-07-29 | yes | resolved=0 · serial_acquirer=5 · cross_chain_owner=500 · enforcement_cluster=938 · fleet_risk_signature=1464 |
| retrain | 2026-08-01 | 2026-08-01 | FAILED | error=No module named 'numpy' |
| score_refresh | 2026-08-03 | 2026-08-03 | FAILED | error=permission denied for table cii_model_registry |
| model p_adverse_action_12m | 2026-07-29 | v0.1 | default | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| model p_chow_12m | 2026-07-29 | v0.1 | default | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
scans execute inside Postgres on pg_cron; score refreshes and retrains run in the API process, triggered over pg_net — the cadence survives sandbox loss
Anomalies — 103 open · Risk vs stars divergence
| Facility | Type | Signal | Setting | State | City | First seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MERCYHEALTH JAVON BEA HOSPITAL -SNF | Risk vs stars divergence | 13.9 | snf | IL | ROCKFORD | 2026-07-29 |
| Grants Wellness & Rehabilitation LLC | Risk vs stars divergence | 13.6 | snf | NM | Grants | 2026-07-29 |
| FAIRVIEW HEALTHCARE RESIDENCE | Risk vs stars divergence | 12.9 | snf | TX | FAIRFIELD | 2026-07-29 |
| NORTHBROOK HEALTH AND REHAB | Risk vs stars divergence | 12.8 | snf | IL | NORTHBROOK | 2026-07-29 |
| APERION CARE NILES | Risk vs stars divergence | 12.7 | snf | IL | NILES | 2026-07-29 |
| Mission at Richfield Nursing and Rehabilitation | Risk vs stars divergence | 12.7 | snf | UT | Richfield | 2026-07-29 |
| The Villa at Rose City | Risk vs stars divergence | 12.6 | snf | MI | Rose City | 2026-07-29 |
| ATLAS POST ACUTE | Risk vs stars divergence | 12.3 | snf | CO | PUEBLO | 2026-07-29 |
| BAYBROOKE VILLAGE CARE AND REHAB CENTER | Risk vs stars divergence | 12.2 | snf | TX | MCKINNEY | 2026-07-29 |
| WARREN BARR NORTH SHORE | Risk vs stars divergence | 12.2 | snf | IL | HIGHLAND PARK | 2026-07-29 |
| COPPER RIDGE HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER | Risk vs stars divergence | 12.1 | snf | MT | BUTTE | 2026-07-29 |
| Christian Care Communities and Services Mesquite | Risk vs stars divergence | 12.0 | snf | TX | Mesquite | 2026-07-29 |
| GARDEN TERRACE HEALTHCARE CENTER OF FORT WORTH | Risk vs stars divergence | 11.9 | snf | TX | FORT WORTH | 2026-07-29 |
| Glen Rose Nursing and Rehab Center | Risk vs stars divergence | 11.9 | snf | TX | Glen Rose | 2026-07-29 |
| WESTLAKE HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER | Risk vs stars divergence | 11.7 | snf | CO | GREELEY | 2026-07-29 |
| EVERGREEN NURSING & REHAB CENTER | Risk vs stars divergence | 11.7 | snf | IL | EFFINGHAM | 2026-07-29 |
| VILLAGE OF THE FALLS | Risk vs stars divergence | 11.6 | snf | OH | OLMSTED FALLS | 2026-07-29 |
| MANGUM SKILLED NURSING AND THERAPY | Risk vs stars divergence | 11.5 | snf | OK | MANGUM | 2026-07-29 |
| THE LAURENWOOD NURSING AND REHABILITATION | Risk vs stars divergence | 11.4 | snf | TX | DUNCANVILLE | 2026-07-29 |
| THE VOSSWOOD NURSING CENTER | Risk vs stars divergence | 11.2 | snf | TX | HOUSTON | 2026-07-29 |
| ATLANTES THE | Risk vs stars divergence | 11.1 | snf | OH | CINCINNATI | 2026-07-29 |
| EVERETT CENTER | Risk vs stars divergence | 10.9 | snf | WA | EVERETT | 2026-07-29 |
| ADROIT CARE REHABILITATION AND NURSING CENTER | Risk vs stars divergence | 10.4 | snf | NJ | RAHWAY | 2026-07-29 |
| GROVE OF NORTHBROOK,THE | Risk vs stars divergence | 10.3 | snf | IL | NORTHBROOK | 2026-07-29 |
| CARE ONE AT ESSEX PARK | Risk vs stars divergence | 10.2 | snf | MA | BEVERLY | 2026-07-29 |
top-decile composite risk (≥90) against a current CMS overall rating of 4–5 — one of the two claims is wrong, both are shown
Connections — 2,907 open
| Subject | Relation | Strength | Evidence | First seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IOWA 5784 LLC | Fleet risk signature | +47.8 vs national · 5 facilities | 2026-07-29 | |
| AMARANTHINE HOLDINGS LLC | Fleet risk signature | +47.2 vs national · 5 facilities | 2026-07-29 | |
| CARESAGE ADMINISTRATIVE CONSULTING LLC | Fleet risk signature | +47.2 vs national · 5 facilities | 2026-07-29 | |
| JSJ 2020 FAMILY TR | Fleet risk signature | +47.2 vs national · 5 facilities | 2026-07-29 | |
| FORVIS MAZARS LLP | Cross-chain owner | 47 chains · 251 facilities | 2026-07-29 | |
| HOWARD DANIEL | Fleet risk signature | +46.2 vs national · 6 facilities | 2026-07-29 | |
| PANCER AARON | Fleet risk signature | +46.0 vs national · 6 facilities | 2026-07-29 | |
| KEYSTONE HOLDING GROUP II LLC | Fleet risk signature | +45.7 vs national · 5 facilities | 2026-07-29 | |
| HCF HOMECARE INC | Fleet risk signature | +45.4 vs national · 5 facilities | 2026-07-29 | |
| BLOOMING WILLOW PARTNERS LLC | Fleet risk signature | +45.3 vs national · 5 facilities | 2026-07-29 | |
| DERHOBEN TRUST | Fleet risk signature | +45.3 vs national · 5 facilities | 2026-07-29 | |
| PAS B SOL TRUST | Fleet risk signature | +45.3 vs national · 5 facilities | 2026-07-29 | |
| WILDFLOWER HEALTHCARE LLC | Fleet risk signature | +45.3 vs national · 5 facilities | 2026-07-29 | |
| GOLDEN LAUREN | Fleet risk signature | +44.8 vs national · 8 facilities | 2026-07-29 | |
| DOYLE MARIA | Fleet risk signature | +44.7 vs national · 5 facilities | 2026-07-29 | |
| JACOBS HYMAN | Fleet risk signature | +44.7 vs national · 8 facilities | 2026-07-29 | |
| WATSON NATHAN | Fleet risk signature | +44.7 vs national · 5 facilities | 2026-07-29 | |
| SHABAT RONALD | Fleet risk signature | +44.6 vs national · 5 facilities | 2026-07-29 | |
| GOLDEN SHAWN | Fleet risk signature | +44.4 vs national · 5 facilities | 2026-07-29 | |
| SLM INVESTMENTS LLC | Fleet risk signature | +44.4 vs national · 5 facilities | 2026-07-29 | |
| CHAD UNVERFERTH | Fleet risk signature | +44.1 vs national · 6 facilities | 2026-07-29 | |
| METTERNICH CHRISTOPHER | Fleet risk signature | +44.1 vs national · 8 facilities | 2026-07-29 | |
| CELESTE KLAY | Fleet risk signature | +43.9 vs national · 6 facilities | 2026-07-29 | |
| KERRI ROMES | Fleet risk signature | +43.9 vs national · 6 facilities | 2026-07-29 | |
| PRINCE DANNY | Fleet risk signature | +43.9 vs national · 12 facilities | 2026-07-29 |
relationships the ontology implies but no single source states