419 South Coral Street, Kalkaska, MI 49646 · CCN 235407
Composite
75.8 / 100 percentile
Peer group
snf n = 14,684
Evidence depth
deep
Certified beds
104
Model
v1.2
Reads as: riskier than 75.8% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
MI median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.66
3.52
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.68
0.47
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.50
3.32
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.72
3.61
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
77.2
3.66
0.68
0.39
2.59
3.50
0.0%
2025Q3
92
72.8
4.15
0.87
0.42
2.86
4.14
0.0%
2025Q2
91
73.7
4.20
0.86
0.42
2.92
4.17
0.0%
2025Q1
90
73.9
4.43
0.89
0.53
3.02
4.39
0.0%
2024Q4
92
76.1
4.47
0.85
0.50
3.12
4.41
0.0%
2024Q3
92
78.6
4.28
0.78
0.49
3.00
4.13
0.0%
2024Q2
91
77.1
4.38
0.85
0.57
2.96
4.08
0.0%
2024Q1
91
78.1
3.02
0.71
0.48
1.83
2.60
0.0%
2023Q4
92
77.9
3.23
0.71
0.49
2.03
2.85
0.0%
2023Q3
92
77.2
3.47
0.66
0.59
2.22
3.06
0.0%
2023Q2
91
74.5
3.76
0.72
0.58
2.46
3.30
0.0%
2023Q1
90
74.5
3.94
0.71
0.52
2.71
3.64
0.0%
2022Q4
92
76.4
3.85
0.71
0.54
2.61
3.57
0.0%
2022Q3
92
79.4
4.18
0.86
0.56
2.76
3.89
0.0%
2022Q2
91
82.1
4.65
0.88
0.63
3.14
4.39
0.0%
2022Q1
90
82.5
5.01
0.90
0.69
3.42
4.77
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
G
2026-01-27
2025-11-26
Health · complaint
F0580
Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident.
D
2025-12-23
2025-09-19
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
G
2025-10-17
2025-07-31
Health
F0552
Ensure that residents are fully informed and understand their health status, care and treatments.
E
2025-09-05
2025-07-31
Health
F0688
Provide appropriate care for a resident to maintain and/or improve range of motion (ROM), limited ROM and/or mobility, unless a decline is for a medical reason.
D
2025-09-05
2025-07-31
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2025-09-05
2025-05-02
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
J
2025-05-30
2025-02-19
Health · complaint
F0580
Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident.
D
2025-03-21
2024-08-28
Health
F0692
Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health.
D
2024-09-30
2024-08-28
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2024-09-30
2023-10-05
Health
F0803
Ensure menus must meet the nutritional needs of residents, be prepared in advance, be followed, be updated, be reviewed by dietician, and meet the needs of the resident.
E
2023-11-03
2023-10-05
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
E
2023-11-03
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
48
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
KALKASKA MEMORIAL HEALTH CENTER
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
1990-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
BANKER, GEORGE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2016-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
BARR, ROBERT
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2020-06-23
current
pecos_ownership
BRADLEY, GREGORY
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2020-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
BRENNER, MATTHEW
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-01-14
current
pecos_ownership
BROERING, NOREEN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-01-15
current
pecos_ownership
CANNON, NELSON
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2010-08-30
current
pecos_ownership
CERVONE, LYNNETTE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-02-20
current
pecos_ownership
COX, JANET
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2024-01-16
current
pecos_ownership
DE KORNE, DALE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2020-06-23
current
pecos_ownership
FINKBEINER, CINDY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-12-04
current
pecos_ownership
GENTELIA, GAYENELL
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-02-13
current
pecos_ownership
HART, ALAN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-03-20
current
pecos_ownership
HENDRICKS, ERIC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2014-02-02
current
pecos_ownership
KALKASKA MEMORIAL HEALTH CENTER
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-12-27
current
pecos_ownership
KLIMEK, KARL
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-07-05
current
pecos_ownership
NEEDHAM, DIANA
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2019-03-11
current
pecos_ownership
NICHOL, TERESA
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2020-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
PAUCH, MELANIE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2020-06-23
current
pecos_ownership
PHILLIPS, AMBER
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2022-03-14
current
pecos_ownership
RAYMOND, ANDREW
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2016-12-19
current
pecos_ownership
STEPHENS, KIMBERLY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2020-06-23
current
pecos_ownership
STIEHL, CHARLES
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2024-02-20
current
pecos_ownership
STOBERT, ROGER
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2023-02-15
current
pecos_ownership
ZENNER, BRUCE
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2014-02-02
current
pecos_ownership
ALAN HART
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-03-20
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
AMBER PHILLIPS
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2022-03-14
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ANDREW RAYMOND
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2016-12-19
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BRUCE ZENNER
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2014-02-02
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHARLES STIEHL
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-02-20
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CINDY FINKBEINER
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-12-04
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DALE DE KORNE
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2020-06-23
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DIANA NEEDHAM
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2019-03-11
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ERIC HENDRICKS
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2014-02-02
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
GAYENELL GENTELIA
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2024-02-13
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
GEORGE BANKER
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2016-11-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
GREGORY BRADLEY
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2020-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JANET COX
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-01-16
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KARL KLIMEK
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2021-07-05
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KIMBERLY STEPHENS
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2020-06-23
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LYNNETTE CERVONE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-02-20
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MATTHEW BRENNER
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-14
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MELANIE PAUCH
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2020-06-23
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
NELSON CANNON
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2010-08-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
NOREEN BROERING
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2024-01-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ROBERT BARR
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2020-06-23
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ROGER STOBERT
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-02-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TERESA NICHOL
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2020-02-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
0
No related-party cost years on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
31
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 26079
acs median gross
0
$579
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 26079
fmr
0
$719
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 26079
acs median gross
1
$390
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 26079
fmr
1
$766
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 26079
acs median gross
2
$873
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 26079
fmr
2
$973
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 26079
acs median gross
3
$1,247
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 26079
fmr
3
$1,286
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 26079
acs median gross
4
$1,333
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 26079
fmr
4
$1,291
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 26079
acs median gross
$853
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 26079
acs recent mover gross
$696
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 49646
acs median gross
1
$393
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 49646
acs median gross
2
$821
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 49646
acs median gross
3
$1,242
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 49646
acs median gross
$690
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 49646
payment standard 110
0
$792
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 49646
payment standard 90
0
$648
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 49646
safmr
0
$720
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 49646
payment standard 110
1
$847
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 49646
payment standard 90
1
$693
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 49646
safmr
1
$770
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 49646
payment standard 110
2
$1,067
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 49646
payment standard 90
2
$873
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 49646
safmr
2
$970
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 49646
payment standard 110
3
$1,419
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 49646
payment standard 90
3
$1,161
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 49646
safmr
3
$1,290
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 49646
payment standard 110
4
$1,419
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 49646
payment standard 90
4
$1,161
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 49646
safmr
4
$1,290
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.