Reads as: riskier than 87.7% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
11
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+39.2 vs natl
CF ST LOUIS LLC
34 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+36.7 vs natl
NINIO MORDECHAY
10 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+36.7 vs natl
GARDEN DANIEL
10 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+35.6 vs natl
MG PROPERTY HOLDINGS LLC
31 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+34.8 vs natl
LEGACY REAL PROPERTIES LLC
30 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+34.8 vs natl
GROVE HEALTHCARE PROPERTIES LLC
30 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+34.4 vs natl
TBDMD IL LLC
9 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+31.4 vs natl
GPN FAMILY TRUST U A D 4 28 08
74 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+30.1 vs natl
DOROS GENERATION TRUST U A D 1 3 12
72 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
40% fined
GARDEN DANIEL
10 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
40% fined
NINIO MORDECHAY
10 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
IL median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.35
3.13
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.50
0.49
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.22
2.93
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.41
3.23
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
179.1
3.35
0.50
0.75
2.10
3.22
8.5%
2025Q3
92
177.7
3.47
0.52
0.77
2.19
3.33
8.5%
2025Q2
91
168.1
3.60
0.59
0.76
2.25
3.41
11.5%
2025Q1
90
177.9
3.73
0.57
0.82
2.35
3.50
21.1%
2024Q4
92
177.8
3.58
0.53
0.82
2.23
3.34
25.6%
2024Q3
92
175.5
3.63
0.53
0.81
2.29
3.35
32.1%
2024Q2
91
171.8
3.80
0.66
0.78
2.36
3.52
38.7%
2024Q1
91
182.9
3.90
0.71
0.75
2.44
3.66
44.0%
2023Q4
92
178.1
3.56
0.52
0.73
2.31
3.36
36.0%
2023Q3
92
159.1
3.66
0.49
0.77
2.39
3.44
29.0%
2023Q2
91
166.7
3.52
0.57
0.59
2.35
3.28
37.0%
2023Q1
90
166.1
3.33
0.50
0.63
2.20
3.07
38.1%
2022Q4
92
163.5
3.15
0.41
0.69
2.05
2.91
34.8%
2022Q3
92
154.7
3.41
0.60
0.68
2.13
3.15
41.6%
2022Q2
91
136.1
3.35
0.53
0.77
2.06
3.08
42.7%
2022Q1
90
124.9
2.76
0.47
0.60
1.69
2.31
30.4%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing.
D
2026-04-27
2026-03-23
Health · complaint
F0550
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
D
2026-03-30
2026-03-23
Health · complaint
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2026-03-30
2025-06-03
Health · complaint
F0602
Protect each resident from the wrongful use of the resident's belongings or money.
D
2025-06-20
2025-06-03
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
G
2025-06-20
2025-04-11
Health
F0623
Provide timely notification to the resident, and if applicable to the resident representative and ombudsman, before transfer or discharge, including appeal rights.
E
2025-04-28
2025-04-11
Health
F0625
Notify the resident or the resident’s representative in writing how long the nursing home will hold the resident’s bed in cases of transfer to a hospital or therapeutic leave.
D
2025-04-28
2025-04-11
Health
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
E
2025-04-28
2025-04-11
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
E
2025-04-28
2025-04-11
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2025-04-28
2025-04-11
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2025-04-29
2025-04-11
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2025-04-28
2025-04-11
Health
F0813
Have a policy regarding use and storage of foods brought to residents by family and other visitors.
E
2025-04-28
2025-04-11
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
E
2025-04-28
2025-04-11
Health
F0887
Educate residents and staff on COVID-19 vaccination, offer the COVID-19 vaccine to eligible residents and staff after education, and properly document each resident and staff member's vaccination status.
F
2025-04-28
2024-07-02
Health · complaint
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2024-07-08
2024-04-10
Health · complaint
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
E
2024-04-16
2024-03-28
Health · complaint
F0558
Reasonably accommodate the needs and preferences of each resident.
D
2024-04-11
2024-03-22
Health
F0554
Allow residents to self-administer drugs if determined clinically appropriate.
E
2024-04-11
2024-03-22
Health
F0558
Reasonably accommodate the needs and preferences of each resident.
E
2024-04-11
2024-03-22
Health
F0604
Ensure that each resident is free from the use of physical restraints, unless needed for medical treatment.
D
2024-04-11
2024-03-22
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2024-04-11
2024-03-22
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2024-04-11
2024-03-22
Health
F0692
Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health.
D
2024-04-11
2024-03-22
Health
F0758
Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited.
D
2024-04-11
2024-03-22
Health
F0759
Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater.
D
2024-04-11
2024-03-22
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2024-04-11
2024-03-22
Health
F0813
Have a policy regarding use and storage of foods brought to residents by family and other visitors.
E
2024-04-11
2024-03-22
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2024-04-11
2024-03-20
Health · complaint
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2024-04-11
2023-11-21
Health · complaint
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2023-12-04
2023-09-29
Health · complaint
F0692
Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health.
G
2023-10-16
2023-06-27
Health · complaint
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2023-07-06
2023-06-27
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
G
2023-07-06
2023-05-05
Health
F0558
Reasonably accommodate the needs and preferences of each resident.
D
2023-05-19
2023-05-05
Health
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
E
2023-05-19
2023-05-05
Health
F0697
Provide safe, appropriate pain management for a resident who requires such services.
D
2023-05-19
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
18
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
NINIO, MORDECHAY
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
59%
2021-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
DOROS GENERATION TRUST U/A/D 1/3/12
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
17%
2021-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
GPN FAMILY TRUST U/A/D 4/28/08
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
17%
2021-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
GARDEN, DANIEL
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
8%
2021-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
CF ST. LOUIS LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
—
2023-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
GROVE HEALTHCARE PROPERTIES LLC
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
—
2024-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
LEGACY REAL PROPERTIES LLC
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
—
2024-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
MG PROPERTY HOLDINGS LLC
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
—
2024-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
MORTON, SCOTT
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2021-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
TBDMD IL, LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
WARREN BARR ORLAND PARK PROPCO
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
—
2024-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
MORDECHAY NINIO
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
59%
2021-06-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHAIM RAJCHENBACH DESCENDANTS TR UA 04282008
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
17%
2021-06-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
GPN FAM TR UA 04282008
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
17%
2021-06-01
ended 2026-04-01
pecos_ownership
DANIEL GARDEN
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
8%
2021-06-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CF ST. LOUIS LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
—
2021-06-01
ended 2021-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
CF ST. LOUIS LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
—
2022-01-01
ended 2022-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
SCOTT MORTON
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2021-06-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
6
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$1,748,668
$713,278
—
—
$30,332
9
propco
2023-12-31
$1,275,869
—
—
—
$24,813
6
propco
2022-12-31
$1,175,425
—
—
—
$14,970
7
propco
2021-12-31
$624,088
—
—
—
$18,004
7
propco
2021-05-31
$785,452
—
$785,452
—
—
6
—
2020-12-31
$3,906,191
—
$2,192,607
—
—
6
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
34
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 17031
acs median gross
0
$1,230
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 17031
fmr
0
$1,480
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 17031
acs median gross
1
$1,271
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 17031
fmr
1
$1,581
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 17031
acs median gross
2
$1,454
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 17031
fmr
2
$1,781
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 17031
acs median gross
3
$1,693
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 17031
fmr
3
$2,294
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 17031
acs median gross
4
$1,909
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 17031
fmr
4
$2,653
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 17031
acs median gross
5
$1,794
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 17031
acs median gross
$1,435
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 17031
acs recent mover gross
$1,752
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 60462
acs median gross
1
$1,416
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 60462
acs median gross
2
$1,407
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 60462
acs median gross
3
$1,813
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 60462
acs median gross
4
$1,692
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 60462
acs median gross
$1,432
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 60462
acs recent mover gross
$1,954
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 60462
payment standard 110
0
$1,639
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60462
payment standard 90
0
$1,341
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60462
safmr
0
$1,490
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60462
payment standard 110
1
$1,749
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60462
payment standard 90
1
$1,431
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60462
safmr
1
$1,590
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60462
payment standard 110
2
$1,969
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60462
payment standard 90
2
$1,611
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60462
safmr
2
$1,790
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60462
payment standard 110
3
$2,541
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60462
payment standard 90
3
$2,079
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60462
safmr
3
$2,310
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60462
payment standard 110
4
$2,937
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60462
payment standard 90
4
$2,403
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60462
safmr
4
$2,670
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.