Composite
98.4 / 100 percentile
| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| regulatory risk | 96.8 | 95.4 | 0.30 | 0.4286 | 41.49 | in index |
| staffing risk | 86.1 | 86.1 | 0.25 | 0.3571 | 30.75 | in index |
| chow risk | 25.2 | 25.0 | 0.15 | 0.2143 | 5.40 | in index |
| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| chow risk | 25.0 | B | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| p adverse action 12m | 0.0 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 2.1 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
| regulatory risk | 95.4 | F | v0.3 | default · in composite | Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos. |
| staffing risk | 86.1 | F | v0.3 | default · in composite | Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS. |
| regulatory risk | 95.4 | F | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 95.4 | F | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 86.1 | F | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 86.1 | F | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy | 0.96 | -0.76 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | +0.69 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.62 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 25.00 | +0.57 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.42 | |
| Chain size (log) | 0.00 | -0.40 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 16.00 | +0.22 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 0.00 | +0.20 |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 16.00 | -1.54 | |
| Chain size (log) | 0.00 | +1.20 | |
| Occupancy | 0.96 | -0.89 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | -0.69 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.39 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 2.66 | +0.23 | |
| Fine amount, 12m (log) | 0.00 | +0.18 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.12 |
| 2025Q4 HPRD | This facility | IL median | National median | National p25–p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total nurse | 2.66 | 3.13 | 3.28 | 2.90–3.77 |
| RN | 0.37 | 0.49 | 0.39 | 0.25–0.58 |
| Weekend total | 2.33 | 2.93 | 3.11 | — |
| Weekday total | 2.79 | 3.23 | 3.35 | — |
| Quarter | Days | Avg census | Total HPRD | RN | LPN | CNA | Weekend | Contract % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q4 | 92 | 111.3 | 2.66 | 0.37 | 0.31 | 1.98 | 2.33 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q3 | 92 | 109.8 | 2.50 | 0.34 | 0.29 | 1.86 | 2.15 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q2 | 91 | 103.0 | 2.58 | 0.33 | 0.34 | 1.91 | 2.29 | 0.1% |
| 2025Q1 | 90 | 100.3 | 2.60 | 0.27 | 0.37 | 1.96 | 2.38 | 0.6% |
| 2024Q4 | 92 | 97.5 | 2.54 | 0.39 | 0.19 | 1.96 | 2.13 | 0.2% |
| 2024Q3 | 92 | 99.1 | 2.52 | 0.35 | 0.25 | 1.92 | 2.02 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q2 | 91 | 97.7 | 2.46 | 0.26 | 0.31 | 1.89 | 2.05 | 0.1% |
| 2024Q1 | 91 | 94.7 | 2.43 | 0.21 | 0.34 | 1.88 | 2.08 | 0.1% |
| 2023Q4 | 92 | 93.3 | 2.49 | 0.21 | 0.37 | 1.91 | 1.95 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q3 | 92 | 95.4 | 2.56 | 0.22 | 0.34 | 2.00 | 2.15 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q2 | 91 | 95.2 | 2.57 | 0.25 | 0.32 | 2.00 | 2.07 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q1 | 90 | 91.4 | 2.60 | 0.34 | 0.29 | 1.97 | 2.16 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q4 | 92 | 90.3 | 2.55 | 0.39 | 0.19 | 1.97 | 2.18 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q3 | 92 | 93.3 | 2.30 | 0.34 | 0.23 | 1.73 | 1.91 | 1.9% |
| 2022Q2 | 91 | 92.5 | 2.19 | 0.27 | 0.32 | 1.59 | 1.72 | 3.3% |
| 2022Q1 | 90 | 92.1 | 1.93 | 0.18 | 0.35 | 1.39 | 1.70 | 0.0% |
| Date | Type | Fine | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-24 | Fine | $80,600 | CMS provider data |
| 2024-05-02 | Fine | $154,500 | CMS provider data |
| Survey | Type | Tag | Deficiency | Scope | Corrected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | Health · complaint | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | D | 2026-04-10 |
| 2025-09-03 | Health | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2025-09-24 |
| 2025-09-03 | Health | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | J | 2025-09-24 |
| 2025-09-03 | Health | F0725 | Provide enough nursing staff every day to meet the needs of every resident; and have a licensed nurse in charge on each shift. | F | 2025-09-24 |
| 2025-09-03 | Health | F0727 | Have a registered nurse on duty 8 hours a day; and select a registered nurse to be the director of nurses on a full time basis. | F | 2025-09-24 |
| 2025-09-03 | Health | F0755 | Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist. | E | 2025-09-24 |
| 2025-09-03 | Health | F0759 | Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater. | D | 2025-09-24 |
| 2025-09-03 | Health | F0761 | Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs. | D | 2025-09-24 |
| 2025-09-03 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | F | 2025-09-24 |
| 2025-09-03 | Health | F0842 | Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards. | D | 2025-09-24 |
| 2025-09-03 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | D | 2025-09-24 |
| 2025-09-03 | Health | F0925 | Make sure there is a pest control program to prevent/deal with mice, insects, or other pests. | F | 2025-09-24 |
| 2025-09-03 | Health | F0944 | Conduct mandatory training, for all staff, on the facility’s Quality Assurance and Performance Improvement Program. | F | 2025-09-24 |
| 2025-08-24 | Health · complaint | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | D | 2025-09-05 |
| 2025-08-24 | Health · complaint | F0609 | Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities. | D | 2025-09-05 |
| 2025-08-24 | Health · complaint | F0610 | Respond appropriately to all alleged violations. | D | 2025-09-05 |
| 2025-07-25 | Health · complaint | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | G | 2025-08-13 |
| 2025-07-25 | Health · complaint | F0609 | Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities. | D | 2025-08-13 |
| 2025-07-21 | Health · complaint | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | G | 2025-09-05 |
| 2025-05-20 | Health · complaint | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | D | 2025-06-06 |
| 2025-04-24 | Health · complaint | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | L | 2025-05-08 |
| 2024-12-10 | Health · complaint | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | G | 2024-12-23 |
| 2024-11-09 | Health · complaint | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | D | 2024-11-22 |
| 2024-10-03 | Health | F0557 | Honor the resident's right to be treated with respect and dignity and to retain and use personal possessions. | D | 2024-10-25 |
| 2024-10-03 | Health | F0561 | Honor the resident's right to and the facility must promote and facilitate resident self-determination through support of resident choice. | D | 2024-10-25 |
| 2024-10-03 | Health | F0565 | Honor the resident's right to organize and participate in resident/family groups in the facility. | F | 2024-10-25 |
| 2024-10-03 | Health | F0577 | Allow residents to easily view the nursing home's survey results and communicate with advocate agencies. | C | 2024-10-25 |
| 2024-10-03 | Health | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | E | 2024-10-25 |
| 2024-10-03 | Health | F0644 | Coordinate assessments with the pre-admission screening and resident review program; and referring for services as needed. | D | 2024-10-25 |
| 2024-10-03 | Health | F0678 | Provide basic life support, including CPR, prior to the arrival of emergency medical personnel , subject to physician orders and the resident’s advance directives. | D | 2024-10-25 |
| 2024-10-03 | Health | F0688 | Provide appropriate care for a resident to maintain and/or improve range of motion (ROM), limited ROM and/or mobility, unless a decline is for a medical reason. | D | 2024-10-25 |
| 2024-10-03 | Health | F0692 | Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health. | D | 2024-10-25 |
| 2024-10-03 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | F | 2024-10-25 |
| 2024-05-02 | Health · complaint | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | J | 2024-05-22 |
| 2023-11-01 | Health · complaint | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | G | 2023-11-15 |
| 2023-11-01 | Health · complaint | F0610 | Respond appropriately to all alleged violations. | D | 2023-11-15 |
| 2023-08-15 | Health · complaint | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | G | 2023-09-29 |
| 2023-06-22 | Health | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | D | 2023-07-11 |
| 2023-06-22 | Health | F0761 | Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs. | D | 2023-07-11 |
| 2023-06-22 | Health | F0770 | Provide timely, quality laboratory services/tests to meet the needs of residents. | G | 2023-07-11 |
| 2023-06-22 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | D | 2023-07-11 |
| Close | Facility | Price | $/bed | Cap rate | Beds | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-01 | RIVAYA CARE OF DES PLAINES | — | — | — | 231 | RIVAYA CARE OF DES PLAINES LLC |
| 2025-04-10 | THE PEARL OF DOWNERS GROVE | — | — | — | 145 | PEARL OF DOWNERS GROVE LLC |
| 2025-04-01 | La Bella of Mascoutah | — | — | — | 76 | MASCOUTAH REHAB AND NURSING LLC |
| 2025-04-01 | MONMOUTH REHAB AND NURSING | — | — | — | 58 | MONMOUTH REHAB AND NURSING LLC |
| 2025-03-05 | GOLDWATER CARE CLINTON | — | — | — | 134 | GOLDWATER CARE CLINTON LLC |
| 2025-03-01 | THE HAVEN OF BRIDGEPORT | — | — | — | 99 | HAVEN OF BRIDGEPORT LLC |
| 2025-03-01 | CASS COUNTY SENIOR LIVING & REHABILITATION LLC | — | — | — | 71 | CASS COUNTY SENIOR LIVING & REHABILITATION LLC |
| 2025-03-01 | Avantara Joliet | — | — | — | 154 | PRIME HEALTHCARE SENIOR LIVING, LLC |
| 2025-03-01 | THE HAVEN OF ST. ELMO | — | — | — | 60 | HAVEN OF ST. ELMO LLC |
| 2025-02-01 | Arc at Sangamon Valley | — | — | — | 171 | ARC AT SANGAMON VALLEY LLC |
| 2025-02-01 | ARC AT HICKORY POINT | — | — | — | 64 | ARC AT HICKORY POINT LLC |
| 2024-12-17 | WYNSCAPE HEALTH & REHAB | — | — | — | 209 | NELP-WYNDEMERE OPERATOR LLC |
| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 17143 | acs median gross | 0 | $867 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 17143 | fmr | 0 | $758 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 17143 | acs median gross | 1 | $771 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 17143 | fmr | 1 | $818 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 17143 | acs median gross | 2 | $1,059 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 17143 | fmr | 2 | $1,039 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 17143 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,155 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 17143 | fmr | 3 | $1,346 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 17143 | acs median gross | 4 | $1,352 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 17143 | fmr | 4 | $1,449 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 17143 | acs median gross | 5 | $1,476 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 17143 | acs median gross | $993 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| county 17143 | acs recent mover gross | $1,042 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 61604 | acs median gross | 0 | $785 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 61604 | acs median gross | 1 | $639 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 61604 | acs median gross | 2 | $1,002 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 61604 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,173 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 61604 | acs median gross | 4 | $1,685 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 61604 | acs median gross | $884 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 61604 | acs recent mover gross | $645 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zip 61604 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $847 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 61604 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $693 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 61604 | safmr | 0 | $770 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 61604 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $913 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 61604 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $747 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 61604 | safmr | 1 | $830 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 61604 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $1,155 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 61604 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $945 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 61604 | safmr | 2 | $1,050 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 61604 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $1,496 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 61604 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $1,224 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 61604 | safmr | 3 | $1,360 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 61604 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $1,606 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 61604 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $1,314 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 61604 | safmr | 4 | $1,460 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |