1002 NORTH JAY STREET, ABERDEEN, SD 57401 · CCN 435042 · chain AVERA HEALTH
Composite
33.4 / 100 percentile
Peer group
snf n = 14,684
Evidence depth
deep
Certified beds
81
Model
v1.2
Reads as: riskier than 33.4% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
SD median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.65
2.96
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.67
0.52
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.31
2.75
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.78
3.06
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
75.9
3.65
0.67
0.51
2.46
3.31
23.2%
2025Q3
92
77.3
3.46
0.56
0.45
2.44
3.20
23.4%
2025Q2
91
76.5
3.46
0.55
0.47
2.44
3.21
21.2%
2025Q1
90
77.6
3.43
0.68
0.43
2.33
3.16
20.8%
2024Q4
92
76.4
3.26
0.60
0.40
2.27
3.09
14.1%
2024Q3
92
76.8
3.15
0.63
0.38
2.15
3.01
7.8%
2024Q2
91
69.5
3.54
0.88
0.26
2.40
3.28
5.1%
2024Q1
91
75.8
3.33
0.82
0.23
2.28
3.11
9.3%
2023Q4
92
75.7
3.28
0.74
0.29
2.24
3.10
0.0%
2023Q3
92
74.1
3.27
0.71
0.29
2.27
3.08
10.1%
2023Q2
91
72.8
3.30
0.84
0.23
2.23
3.05
6.6%
2023Q1
90
75.5
3.19
0.86
0.16
2.17
3.01
7.8%
2022Q4
92
75.4
3.28
0.92
0.15
2.20
3.11
8.2%
2022Q3
92
72.3
3.35
0.90
0.22
2.23
3.13
8.0%
2022Q2
91
70.5
3.38
1.01
0.19
2.19
3.12
8.8%
2022Q1
90
71.0
3.27
0.97
0.15
2.15
3.01
5.6%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Honor the resident's right to request, refuse, and/or discontinue treatment, to participate in or refuse to participate in experimental research, and to formulate an advance directive.
D
2026-01-24
2025-12-17
Health
F0585
Honor the resident's right to voice grievances without discrimination or reprisal and the facility must establish a grievance policy and make prompt efforts to resolve grievances.
E
2026-01-24
2025-12-17
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2026-01-16
2025-12-17
Health
F0725
Provide enough nursing staff every day to meet the needs of every resident; and have a licensed nurse in charge on each shift.
E
2026-01-24
2025-12-17
Health
F0732
Post nurse staffing information every day.
F
2025-12-26
2025-12-17
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2026-01-30
2025-12-17
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2026-01-30
2025-08-01
Health · complaint
F0678
Provide basic life support, including CPR, prior to the arrival of emergency medical personnel , subject to physician orders and the resident’s advance directives.
E
2025-09-18
2025-06-04
Health · complaint
F0658
Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality.
D
2025-05-27
2024-08-28
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
G
2024-07-31
2024-05-16
Health
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
E
2024-06-19
2023-08-02
Health · complaint
F0583
Keep residents' personal and medical records private and confidential.
D
2023-09-18
2023-03-23
Health
F0554
Allow residents to self-administer drugs if determined clinically appropriate.
D
2023-04-21
2023-03-23
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
G
2023-04-21
2023-03-23
Health
F0686
Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing.
G
2023-04-21
2023-03-23
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2023-04-21
2023-03-23
Health
F0849
Arrange for the provision of hospice services or assist the resident in transferring to a facility that will arrange for the provision of hospice services.
D
2023-04-21
2023-03-23
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
E
2023-04-21
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
41
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
AVERA HEALTH
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
1998-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
BIERNE, KATHLEEN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2018-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
BJERKNES, DANIEL
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2022-08-15
current
pecos_ownership
DOVER, JAMES
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2023-10-23
current
pecos_ownership
FAUTH, KRISTEN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2022-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
FOUBERG, ERIN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2025-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
FRANKS, SHANE
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
GOLZ, HEIDI
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2018-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
HEINZ, BLAKE
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
HENRICKSON, PAULA
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-03-26
current
pecos_ownership
HENRICKSON, PAULA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2026-02-12
current
pecos_ownership
HERMAN, MICHAEL
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2022-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
JENSEN, PAULA
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2023-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
KERKVLIET, MARIETTA
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2018-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
KNAPP, MICHAEL
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2011-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
KNAPP, MICHAEL
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2026-02-12
current
pecos_ownership
LAUTT, JULIE
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2020-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
MCNEIL, DAVID
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2025-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
PANOWICZ, KATHLEEN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2014-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
SCHUTZ, AMANDA
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2018-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
WOBST, GARRET
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2018-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
BLAKE HEINZ
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2024-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DAVID MCNEIL
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2025-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ERIN FOUBERG
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2025-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
GARRET WOBST
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2018-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
HEIDI GOLZ
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2018-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KATHLEEN BIERNE
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2018-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KATHLEEN PANOWICZ
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2014-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KRISTEN FAUTH
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2022-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARIETTA KERKVLIET
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2018-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MICHAEL HERMAN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2022-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PAULA JENSEN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2023-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SHANE FRANKS
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2024-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
AMANDA SCHUTZ
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2018-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DANIEL BJERKNES
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2022-08-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JAMES DOVER
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2023-10-23
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JULIE LAUTT
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2020-03-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MICHAEL KNAPP
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2026-02-12
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MICHAEL KNAPP
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2011-03-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PAULA HENRICKSON
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2026-02-12
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PAULA HENRICKSON
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-03-26
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
0
No related-party cost years on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
36
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 46013
acs median gross
0
$429
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 46013
fmr
0
$652
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 46013
acs median gross
1
$585
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 46013
fmr
1
$708
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 46013
acs median gross
2
$848
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 46013
fmr
2
$929
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 46013
acs median gross
3
$946
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 46013
fmr
3
$1,168
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 46013
acs median gross
4
$1,189
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 46013
fmr
4
$1,477
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 46013
acs median gross
5
$1,189
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 46013
acs median gross
$777
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 46013
acs recent mover gross
$913
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 57401
acs median gross
0
$426
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 57401
acs median gross
1
$585
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 57401
acs median gross
2
$835
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 57401
acs median gross
3
$938
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 57401
acs median gross
4
$1,188
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 57401
acs median gross
5
$1,179
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 57401
acs median gross
$766
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 57401
acs recent mover gross
$800
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 57401
payment standard 110
0
$715
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 57401
payment standard 90
0
$585
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 57401
safmr
0
$650
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 57401
payment standard 110
1
$781
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 57401
payment standard 90
1
$639
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 57401
safmr
1
$710
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 57401
payment standard 110
2
$1,023
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 57401
payment standard 90
2
$837
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 57401
safmr
2
$930
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 57401
payment standard 110
3
$1,287
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 57401
payment standard 90
3
$1,053
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 57401
safmr
3
$1,170
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 57401
payment standard 110
4
$1,628
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 57401
payment standard 90
4
$1,332
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 57401
safmr
4
$1,480
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.