Reads as: riskier than 90.4% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
12
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
anomaly
Top-decile risk vs 4–5 star rating
4.4
this facility
2026-07-29
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+24.9 vs natl
BERGER FAM TR UA 06252014
15 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+24.0 vs natl
3701 LUNT LLC
19 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+22.4 vs natl
ISRAEL INVESTMENT TR
19 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+22.4 vs natl
STERN TODD
45 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+22.3 vs natl
KOHEN YAKOV
5 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+22.2 vs natl
AARON JONATHAN
32 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+21.9 vs natl
ISRAEL FAMILY INVESTMENT TRUST
19 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+21.7 vs natl
ISRAEL BENJAMIN
40 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+21.4 vs natl
GRAF MARCELLA
37 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+21.0 vs natl
TELLER ILANA
5 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+20.7 vs natl
RIPSTEIN KENNETH
7 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
IL median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
2.59
3.13
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.42
0.49
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.61
2.93
3.11
—
Weekday total
2.58
3.23
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
102.8
2.59
0.42
0.55
1.61
2.61
0.1%
2025Q3
92
103.5
2.59
0.46
0.54
1.59
2.58
0.2%
2025Q2
91
103.8
2.63
0.38
0.58
1.67
2.64
0.1%
2025Q1
90
106.4
2.54
0.32
0.61
1.61
2.58
0.1%
2024Q4
92
103.6
2.33
0.30
0.64
1.39
2.29
0.4%
2024Q3
92
102.4
2.01
0.34
0.63
1.04
1.93
0.0%
2024Q2
91
101.5
1.92
0.29
0.67
0.96
1.85
0.0%
2024Q1
91
106.6
1.82
0.29
0.58
0.95
1.79
0.1%
2023Q4
92
105.7
1.90
0.37
0.56
0.97
1.80
0.0%
2023Q3
92
102.7
1.92
0.42
0.49
1.02
1.85
0.0%
2023Q2
91
99.7
1.97
0.44
0.54
0.99
1.77
0.0%
2023Q1
90
93.3
2.17
0.42
0.64
1.11
1.97
0.2%
2022Q4
92
95.1
2.05
0.34
0.62
1.09
1.89
0.1%
2022Q3
92
98.2
2.00
0.33
0.60
1.07
1.79
0.1%
2022Q2
91
95.4
1.97
0.39
0.53
1.04
1.78
0.2%
2022Q1
90
96.0
2.12
0.40
0.53
1.20
1.88
0.3%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Reasonably accommodate the needs and preferences of each resident.
E
2026-01-29
2025-11-21
Health
F0558
Reasonably accommodate the needs and preferences of each resident.
D
2025-12-04
2025-11-21
Health
F0686
Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing.
D
2025-12-04
2025-11-21
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2025-12-04
2025-04-17
Health · complaint
F0658
Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality.
D
2025-04-29
2025-04-17
Health · complaint
F0690
Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections.
G
2025-04-29
2024-10-31
Health
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
D
2024-11-14
2024-10-31
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2024-11-14
2024-10-31
Health
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
D
2024-11-14
2024-04-26
Health · complaint
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
J
2024-04-27
2024-04-05
Health · complaint
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
G
2024-04-06
2024-04-05
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
J
2024-04-06
2024-02-29
Health · complaint
F0693
Ensure that feeding tubes are not used unless there is a medical reason and the resident agrees; and provide appropriate care for a resident with a feeding tube.
D
2024-03-11
2023-11-22
Health
F0577
Allow residents to easily view the nursing home's survey results and communicate with advocate agencies.
C
2023-12-13
2023-11-22
Health
F0585
Honor the resident's right to voice grievances without discrimination or reprisal and the facility must establish a grievance policy and make prompt efforts to resolve grievances.
C
2023-12-13
2023-11-22
Health
F0759
Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater.
D
2023-12-13
2023-11-22
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2023-12-13
2023-11-22
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2023-12-13
2023-08-10
Health · complaint
F0622
Not transfer or discharge a resident without an adequate reason; and must provide documentation and convey specific information when a resident is transferred or discharged.
D
2023-08-31
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
43
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
3701 LUNT LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
—
2023-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
3701 LUNT LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
—
2024-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
AARON, JONATHAN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2020-01-23
current
pecos_ownership
BERGER FAM TR UA 06252014
DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2023-12-15
current
pecos_ownership
BERGER, MENACHEM
DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2023-12-15
current
pecos_ownership
BRUCK, JONAH
DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2020-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
GOLF KNOX PROPERTIES LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
—
2023-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
GOLF KNOX PROPERTIES LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
—
2024-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
GORENSTEIN, ADAM
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-11-09
current
pecos_ownership
GRAF, MARCELLA
DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2020-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
GROSS, SHOSHANA
DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2023-12-15
current
pecos_ownership
ISRAEL FAMILY INVESTMENT TRUST
DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2023-12-15
current
pecos_ownership
ISRAEL INVESTMENT TR
DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2023-12-15
current
pecos_ownership
ISRAEL, BENJAMIN
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-16
current
pecos_ownership
KOHEN, YAKOV
DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2023-12-15
current
pecos_ownership
PROCTOR, KATHERINE
DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2023-12-15
current
pecos_ownership
RIPSTEIN, KENNETH
DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2023-12-15
current
pecos_ownership
ROBIN, JASON
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
STERN, RAPHAELA
DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2023-12-15
current
pecos_ownership
STERN, TODD
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-16
current
pecos_ownership
TELLER, ILANA
DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2023-12-15
current
pecos_ownership
WEISS, LEONARD
DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2020-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
JONATHAN AARON
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
38%
2023-12-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
STERN FAMILY INVESTMENT TR
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
16%
2023-12-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ILANA TELLER
DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
5%
2023-12-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MENACHEM BERGER
DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
5%
2023-12-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RAPHAELA STERN
DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
5%
2023-12-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARCELLA GRAF
DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
4%
2020-02-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KENNETH RIPSTEIN
DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
3%
2023-12-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JONAH BRUCK
DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
3%
2020-02-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LEONARD WEISS
DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
3%
2020-02-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
YAKOV KOHEN
DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
2%
2023-12-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KATHERINE PROCTOR
DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
1%
2023-12-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SHOSHANA GROSS
DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
1%
2023-12-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
3755 CHASE LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
—
2020-02-01
ended 2020-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
3755 CHASE LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
—
2022-01-01
ended 2022-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
3755 CHASE LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
—
2021-01-01
ended 2021-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
ADAM GORENSTEIN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2022-11-09
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
GOLF KNOX PROPERTIES LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
—
2022-01-01
ended 2022-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
GOLF KNOX PROPERTIES LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
—
2020-02-01
ended 2020-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
GOLF KNOX PROPERTIES LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
—
2021-01-01
ended 2021-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
JASON ROBIN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-05-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JONATHAN AARON
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2020-01-23
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$1,556,175
—
—
—
$102,232
8
propco
2023-12-31
$1,975,655
—
—
$547
—
8
propco
2022-12-31
$1,798,124
—
—
$253
—
7
propco
2021-12-31
$2,010,401
—
—
$2,365
—
7
propco
2020-12-31
$848,831
—
—
—
—
6
propco
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
35
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 17031
acs median gross
0
$1,230
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 17031
fmr
0
$1,480
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 17031
acs median gross
1
$1,271
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 17031
fmr
1
$1,581
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 17031
acs median gross
2
$1,454
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 17031
fmr
2
$1,781
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 17031
acs median gross
3
$1,693
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 17031
fmr
3
$2,294
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 17031
acs median gross
4
$1,909
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 17031
fmr
4
$2,653
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 17031
acs median gross
5
$1,794
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 17031
acs median gross
$1,435
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 17031
acs recent mover gross
$1,752
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 60076
acs median gross
0
$1,107
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 60076
acs median gross
1
$1,283
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 60076
acs median gross
2
$1,621
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 60076
acs median gross
3
$2,108
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 60076
acs median gross
4
$2,705
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 60076
acs median gross
5
$2,641
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 60076
acs median gross
$1,620
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 60076
payment standard 110
0
$1,782
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60076
payment standard 90
0
$1,458
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60076
safmr
0
$1,620
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60076
payment standard 110
1
$1,903
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60076
payment standard 90
1
$1,557
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60076
safmr
1
$1,730
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60076
payment standard 110
2
$2,145
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60076
payment standard 90
2
$1,755
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60076
safmr
2
$1,950
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60076
payment standard 110
3
$2,761
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60076
payment standard 90
3
$2,259
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60076
safmr
3
$2,510
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60076
payment standard 110
4
$3,190
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60076
payment standard 90
4
$2,610
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60076
safmr
4
$2,900
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.