Reads as: riskier than 36.6% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
1
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
4 chains
LIFE CARE SERVICES LLC
58 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
IL median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.36
3.13
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.99
0.49
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.17
2.93
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.43
3.23
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
52.2
3.36
0.99
0.34
2.03
3.17
0.0%
2025Q3
92
48.7
3.37
1.03
0.39
1.95
3.29
0.0%
2025Q2
91
54.1
3.39
1.04
0.39
1.97
3.09
0.0%
2025Q1
90
54.8
3.28
0.89
0.50
1.89
2.99
0.0%
2024Q4
92
53.9
3.95
1.06
0.61
2.28
3.59
0.0%
2024Q3
92
53.3
3.83
1.06
0.51
2.26
3.42
0.0%
2024Q2
91
46.6
4.21
1.18
0.57
2.46
3.80
0.0%
2024Q1
91
52.3
3.99
1.01
0.52
2.46
3.71
0.6%
2023Q4
92
54.4
3.71
0.94
0.49
2.28
3.48
12.8%
2023Q3
92
54.8
3.79
0.93
0.59
2.28
3.50
6.5%
2023Q2
91
51.0
4.05
0.87
0.74
2.44
3.78
8.9%
2023Q1
90
53.7
3.63
0.86
0.71
2.06
3.42
18.4%
2022Q4
92
52.0
3.55
0.84
0.73
1.98
3.36
11.7%
2022Q3
92
50.7
3.65
0.91
0.61
2.13
3.44
9.2%
2022Q2
91
49.0
3.64
1.00
0.59
2.04
3.27
15.4%
2022Q1
90
42.0
3.58
0.94
0.79
1.86
3.39
7.7%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
10
D × 6E × 1F × 3
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2025-11-26
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
F
2025-12-10
2025-02-21
Health
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2025-03-05
2025-02-21
Health
F0679
Provide activities to meet all resident's needs.
D
2025-03-05
2025-02-21
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
E
2025-03-05
2025-02-21
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
F
2025-03-05
2025-02-21
Health
F0947
Ensure nurse aides have the skills they need to care for residents, and give nurse aides education in dementia care and abuse prevention.
F
2025-03-05
2024-04-25
Health
F0578
Honor the resident's right to request, refuse, and/or discontinue treatment, to participate in or refuse to participate in experimental research, and to formulate an advance directive.
D
2024-05-10
2024-04-25
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2024-05-10
2024-04-25
Health
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
D
2024-05-10
2024-04-25
Health
F0758
Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited.
D
2024-05-10
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
42
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
FOCUS SH II TRS III LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2024-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
AGUILAR, ANGEL
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-27
current
pecos_ownership
AGUILAR, ANGEL
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2024-12-13
current
pecos_ownership
ALFRED I DUPONT CHARITABLE TRUST
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2025-05-23
current
pecos_ownership
ALLSTATE INSURANCE COMPANY
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2025-05-23
current
pecos_ownership
BORN, JOHN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2026-04-08
current
pecos_ownership
BORN, JOHN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-12-13
current
pecos_ownership
COMMONFUND REAL ESTATE AND INFRASTRUCTURE OPPORTUNITY FUND III LP
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2025-05-23
current
pecos_ownership
FFII CARILLON HOLDING LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2025-05-23
current
pecos_ownership
FFII CARILLON OWNER LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-12-27
current
pecos_ownership
FFII CARILLON OWNER LLC
5% OR GREATER MORTGAGE INTEREST
—
2024-12-13
current
pecos_ownership
FOCUS SENIOR HOUSING FUND II LP
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2025-05-23
current
pecos_ownership
FOCUS SH II HOLDINGS III LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2025-05-23
current
pecos_ownership
FOCUS SH II R CARILLON LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2025-05-23
current
pecos_ownership
FOCUS SH II REIT
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2025-05-23
current
pecos_ownership
FRONING, PAUL
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-12-13
current
pecos_ownership
FSHF II CO-INVESTMENT B LP
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2025-05-23
current
pecos_ownership
FSHF II CO-INVESTMENT C LP
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2025-05-23
current
pecos_ownership
HANCOCK WHITNEY BANK
5% OR GREATER MORTGAGE INTEREST
—
2025-05-23
current
pecos_ownership
LIFE CARE SERVICES LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-02
current
pecos_ownership
MERIT MEDICAID CONSULTANT LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-24
current
pecos_ownership
MERIT MEDICAID CONSULTANT LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-12-31
current
pecos_ownership
SCHALLER, CURT
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-12-13
current
pecos_ownership
THE STATE OF OHIO, OHIO BUREAU OF WORKERS' COMPENSATION
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2025-05-23
current
pecos_ownership
FOCUS SENIOR HOUSING FUND II LP
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2024-12-13
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
FOCUS SH II HOLDINGS III LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2024-12-13
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
FOCUS SH II REIT
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2024-12-13
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
FOCUS SH II TRS II LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2024-12-13
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ALLSTATE INSURANCE COMPANY
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
20%
2024-12-13
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
THE STATE OF OHIO, OHIO BUREAU OF WORKERS' COMPENSATION
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
14%
2024-12-13
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ALFRED I DUPONT CHARITABLE TRUST
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
11%
2024-12-13
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ALLSTATE RETIREMENT PLAN TRUST
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
7%
2024-12-13
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CITY OF PHOENIX EMPLOYEES' RETIREMENT SYSTEM
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
7%
2024-12-13
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
COMMONFUND REAL ESTATE OPPORTUNITY FUND II, L.P.
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
7%
2024-12-13
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TEXAS A&M FOUNDATION
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
5%
2024-12-13
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ANGEL AGUILAR
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-27
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ANGEL AGUILAR
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2024-12-13
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CURT SCHALLER
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-12-13
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOHN BORN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-27
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOHN BORN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-12-31
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOHN BORN
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2024-12-13
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PAUL FRONING
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-12-13
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
2
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2022-06-30
$253,336
$253,336
—
—
—
1
—
2021-06-30
$253,336
$253,336
—
—
—
1
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
33
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 17031
acs median gross
0
$1,230
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 17031
fmr
0
$1,480
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 17031
acs median gross
1
$1,271
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 17031
fmr
1
$1,581
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 17031
acs median gross
2
$1,454
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 17031
fmr
2
$1,781
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 17031
acs median gross
3
$1,693
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 17031
fmr
3
$2,294
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 17031
acs median gross
4
$1,909
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 17031
fmr
4
$2,653
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 17031
acs median gross
5
$1,794
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 17031
acs median gross
$1,435
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 17031
acs recent mover gross
$1,752
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 60103
acs median gross
1
$2,327
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 60103
acs median gross
2
$1,643
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 60103
acs median gross
3
$2,315
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 60103
acs median gross
$1,877
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 60103
acs recent mover gross
$1,750
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 60103
payment standard 110
0
$2,090
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60103
payment standard 90
0
$1,710
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60103
safmr
0
$1,900
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60103
payment standard 110
1
$2,233
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60103
payment standard 90
1
$1,827
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60103
safmr
1
$2,030
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60103
payment standard 110
2
$2,519
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60103
payment standard 90
2
$2,061
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60103
safmr
2
$2,290
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60103
payment standard 110
3
$3,245
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60103
payment standard 90
3
$2,655
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60103
safmr
3
$2,950
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60103
payment standard 110
4
$3,751
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60103
payment standard 90
4
$3,069
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60103
safmr
4
$3,410
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.