Reads as: riskier than 54.5% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
5
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
4 chains
MATHEW STANLEY
12 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
50% fined
MCGILL JAMES
6 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
42% fined
FRIEDMAN BENJAMIN
26 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
40% fined
NEWHOUSE TEMI
10 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
40% fined
PLEW ANDREA
15 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
IL median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.29
3.13
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.49
0.49
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.14
2.93
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.35
3.23
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
61.3
3.29
0.49
0.58
2.22
3.14
0.0%
2025Q3
92
63.7
3.16
0.54
0.48
2.15
2.98
2.4%
2025Q2
91
64.2
3.04
0.54
0.46
2.03
2.81
3.4%
2025Q1
90
62.9
3.09
0.62
0.37
2.09
2.90
0.3%
2024Q4
92
61.3
3.12
0.80
0.33
1.99
2.91
0.4%
2024Q3
92
59.9
2.93
0.65
0.30
1.97
2.85
0.4%
2024Q2
91
58.0
3.19
0.66
0.38
2.15
2.99
0.0%
2024Q1
91
59.8
3.11
0.72
0.29
2.10
2.96
0.0%
2023Q4
92
58.1
3.35
0.71
0.51
2.13
2.98
0.0%
2023Q3
92
58.3
3.46
0.77
0.41
2.27
3.08
0.0%
2023Q2
91
57.2
3.34
0.79
0.47
2.09
2.94
0.0%
2023Q1
90
55.9
3.43
0.78
0.53
2.12
3.02
0.0%
2022Q4
92
56.3
3.57
0.73
0.56
2.27
3.13
0.0%
2022Q3
92
49.1
3.48
0.92
0.57
1.99
2.89
0.0%
2022Q2
91
49.2
3.27
0.98
0.38
1.90
2.60
0.0%
2022Q1
90
44.0
3.64
0.95
0.50
2.19
3.03
0.1%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2025-11-22
2025-11-21
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
E
2025-11-22
2025-09-15
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
G
2025-09-08
2025-09-03
Health · complaint
F0550
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
G
2025-09-04
2025-09-03
Health · complaint
F0725
Provide enough nursing staff every day to meet the needs of every resident; and have a licensed nurse in charge on each shift.
F
2025-09-04
2025-07-02
Health · complaint
F0584
Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely.
E
2025-07-03
2024-08-16
Health
F0636
Assess the resident completely in a timely manner when first admitted, and then periodically, at least every 12 months.
D
2024-08-26
2024-08-16
Health
F0638
Assure that each resident’s assessment is updated at least once every 3 months.
E
2024-08-26
2024-08-16
Health
F0808
Ensure therapeutic diets are prescribed by the attending physician and may be delegated to a registered or licensed dietitian, to the extent allowed by State law.
D
2024-08-28
2024-08-16
Health
F0810
Provide special eating equipment and utensils for residents who need them and appropriate assistance.
D
2024-08-28
2024-08-16
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2024-08-28
2024-03-27
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
G
2024-04-05
2023-10-20
Health
F0550
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
E
2023-11-03
2023-10-20
Health
F0558
Reasonably accommodate the needs and preferences of each resident.
D
2023-11-03
2023-10-20
Health
F0657
Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals.
D
2023-11-03
2023-10-20
Health
F0757
Ensure each resident’s drug regimen must be free from unnecessary drugs.
D
2023-11-03
2023-10-20
Health
F0760
Ensure that residents are free from significant medication errors.
D
2023-11-03
2023-10-20
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2023-11-03
2023-10-20
Health
F0919
Make sure that a working call system is available in each resident's bathroom and bathing area.
F
2023-11-03
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
41
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
CET OFFICE HOLDINGS LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
—
2023-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
CET OFFICE HOLDINGS LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
—
2024-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
E NEWHOUSE FAMILY TRUST
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2022-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
ERBLICH, AVRAHAM
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
ERBLICH, AVRAHAM
DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2022-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
ETN FAMILY HOLDINGS LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2022-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
FRIEDMAN, BENJAMIN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2022-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
MATHEW, STANLEY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
MCGILL, JAMES
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2022-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
MILLMAN, CHAIM
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2022-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
NEWHOUSE, ERIC
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
2022-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
NEWHOUSE, TEMI
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
2022-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
PLEW, ANDREA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
ROBINSON PROPCO LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
—
2023-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
ROBINSON PROPCO LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
—
2024-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
ROBINSON PROPCO LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2022-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
SACKTON, AVRAHAM
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2022-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
SHEPS, BORUCH
DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2022-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
STERN THERAPY CONSULTANTS LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-05-19
current
pecos_ownership
STERN THERAPY CONSULTANTS LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
STERN, BEZALEL
DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2022-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
SWEDENBURG, JANIE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-09-30
current
pecos_ownership
T NEWHOUSE FAMILY TRUST
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2022-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
BORUCH SHEPS
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
50%
2022-02-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHAIM MILLMAN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
50%
2022-02-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BENJAMIN FRIEDMAN
DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
20%
2022-02-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
AVRAHAM ERBLICH
DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
18%
2022-02-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BEZALEL STERN
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
8%
2022-02-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ERIC NEWHOUSE
DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
0%
2022-02-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ANDREA PLEW
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-02-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
AVRAHAM ERBLICH
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-02-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
AVRAHAM SACKTON
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2022-02-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CET OFFICE HOLDINGS LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
—
2022-02-01
ended 2022-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
H.M. REAL ESTATE LLC
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
—
2021-01-01
ended 2021-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
H.M. REAL ESTATE LLC
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
—
2022-01-01
ended 2022-01-31
hcris_a_8_1
H.M. REAL ESTATE LLC
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
—
2020-01-01
ended 2020-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
JAMES MCGILL
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2022-02-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JANIE SWEDENBURG
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-09-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ROBINSON PROPCO LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
—
2022-02-01
ended 2022-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
STANLEY MATHEW
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-05-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TEMI NEWHOUSE
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
2022-02-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
6
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$1,196,246
—
—
—
$37,439
5
propco
2023-12-31
$1,019,300
—
—
—
$22,678
5
propco
2022-12-31
$262,675
—
—
—
$30,825
5
propco
2022-01-31
$52,528
—
—
—
—
3
propco
2021-12-31
$728,426
—
—
—
$2,176
3
propco
2020-12-31
$829,233
—
—
—
$3,578
3
propco
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
30
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 17033
fmr
0
$632
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 17033
acs median gross
1
$742
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 17033
fmr
1
$764
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 17033
acs median gross
2
$812
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 17033
fmr
2
$916
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 17033
acs median gross
3
$859
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 17033
fmr
3
$1,241
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 17033
acs median gross
4
$1,309
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 17033
fmr
4
$1,537
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 17033
acs median gross
$811
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 17033
acs recent mover gross
$1,610
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 62454
acs median gross
1
$759
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 62454
acs median gross
2
$903
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 62454
acs median gross
3
$858
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 62454
acs median gross
$877
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 62454
payment standard 110
0
$737
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 62454
payment standard 90
0
$603
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 62454
safmr
0
$670
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 62454
payment standard 110
1
$891
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 62454
payment standard 90
1
$729
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 62454
safmr
1
$810
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 62454
payment standard 110
2
$1,067
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 62454
payment standard 90
2
$873
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 62454
safmr
2
$970
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 62454
payment standard 110
3
$1,441
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 62454
payment standard 90
3
$1,179
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 62454
safmr
3
$1,310
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 62454
payment standard 110
4
$1,793
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 62454
payment standard 90
4
$1,467
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 62454
safmr
4
$1,630
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.