Composite
81.7 / 100 percentile
| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| regulatory risk | 90.6 | 88.2 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 20.91 | in index |
| billing conduct | 74.7 | 50.0 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 17.24 | in index |
| staffing risk | 55.3 | 55.3 | 0.25 | 0.1923 | 10.63 | in index |
| financial risk | 37.4 | 38.1 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 8.63 | in index |
| chow risk | 34.0 | 32.6 | 0.15 | 0.1154 | 3.92 | in index |
| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| billing conduct | 50.0 | C | v0.1-pacpuf-snf | default · in composite | R22. PAC PUF SNF 2023. PDPM coding intensity vs acuity, stay length, charge markup. |
| chow risk | 25.0 | B | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| chow risk | 40.3 | B | v0.6 | default · in composite | |
| financial risk | 38.1 | B | v0.5 | default · in composite | R18. |
| p adverse action 12m | 0.0 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 0.2 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
| regulatory risk | 88.2 | F | v0.3 | default · in composite | Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos. |
| staffing risk | 55.3 | C | v0.3 | default · in composite | Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS. |
| financial risk | 69.1 | D | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 49.1 | C | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 34.0 | B | v0.3 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 44.1 | B | v0.4 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 88.1 | F | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 88.1 | F | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 55.3 | C | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 55.3 | C | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Never sold on record | 0.00 | -1.62 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 8.49 | -1.02 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | +0.69 | |
| Occupancy | 0.88 | -0.53 | |
| Chain size (log) | 4.37 | +0.53 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.42 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 17.00 | +0.24 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 0.00 | +0.20 |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 17.00 | -1.72 | |
| Chain size (log) | 4.37 | -1.34 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | -0.69 | |
| Occupancy | 0.88 | -0.55 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.39 | |
| Never sold on record | 0.00 | -0.28 | |
| High-severity deficiencies, 12m | 4.00 | -0.28 | |
| Fine amount, 12m (log) | 0.00 | +0.18 |
| 2025Q4 HPRD | This facility | MI median | National median | National p25–p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total nurse | 3.20 | 3.52 | 3.28 | 2.90–3.77 |
| RN | 0.62 | 0.47 | 0.39 | 0.25–0.58 |
| Weekend total | 3.00 | 3.32 | 3.11 | — |
| Weekday total | 3.28 | 3.61 | 3.35 | — |
| Quarter | Days | Avg census | Total HPRD | RN | LPN | CNA | Weekend | Contract % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q4 | 92 | 109.9 | 3.20 | 0.62 | 0.42 | 2.16 | 3.00 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q3 | 92 | 111.1 | 3.18 | 0.63 | 0.46 | 2.08 | 2.93 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q2 | 91 | 102.7 | 3.28 | 0.67 | 0.48 | 2.13 | 3.13 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q1 | 90 | 101.5 | 3.32 | 0.68 | 0.47 | 2.17 | 3.13 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q4 | 92 | 95.8 | 3.38 | 0.68 | 0.49 | 2.20 | 3.19 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q3 | 92 | 88.7 | 3.47 | 0.65 | 0.51 | 2.31 | 3.31 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q2 | 91 | 91.0 | 3.46 | 0.68 | 0.47 | 2.30 | 3.33 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q1 | 91 | 85.7 | 3.32 | 0.55 | 0.50 | 2.27 | 3.21 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q4 | 92 | 85.7 | 3.29 | 0.49 | 0.50 | 2.29 | 3.19 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q3 | 92 | 84.6 | 3.16 | 0.53 | 0.48 | 2.15 | 3.10 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q2 | 91 | 83.9 | 3.27 | 0.52 | 0.54 | 2.21 | 3.22 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q1 | 90 | 82.6 | 3.39 | 0.48 | 0.56 | 2.35 | 3.32 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q4 | 92 | 81.5 | 3.47 | 0.47 | 0.60 | 2.40 | 3.36 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q3 | 92 | 85.2 | 3.31 | 0.45 | 0.55 | 2.31 | 3.24 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q2 | 91 | 85.2 | 3.32 | 0.48 | 0.54 | 2.29 | 3.27 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q1 | 90 | 85.5 | 3.27 | 0.48 | 0.54 | 2.25 | 3.26 | 0.0% |
| Date | Type | Fine | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-05-17 | Fine | $69,430 | CMS provider data |
| Survey | Type | Tag | Deficiency | Scope | Corrected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-04 | Health | F0604 | Ensure that each resident is free from the use of physical restraints, unless needed for medical treatment. | D | 2026-03-28 |
| 2026-03-04 | Health | F0628 | Provide the required documentation or notification related to the resident's needs, appeal rights, or bed-hold policies. | D | 2026-03-28 |
| 2026-03-04 | Health | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2026-03-28 |
| 2026-03-04 | Health | F0686 | Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing. | G | 2026-03-28 |
| 2026-03-04 | Health | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | D | 2026-03-28 |
| 2026-03-04 | Health | F0692 | Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health. | D | 2026-03-28 |
| 2026-03-04 | Health | F0756 | Ensure a licensed pharmacist perform a monthly drug regimen review, including the medical chart, following irregularity reporting guidelines in developed policies and procedures. | D | 2026-03-28 |
| 2026-03-04 | Health | F0760 | Ensure that residents are free from significant medication errors. | D | 2026-03-28 |
| 2026-03-04 | Health | F0761 | Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs. | E | 2026-03-28 |
| 2026-03-04 | Health · complaint | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | F | 2026-03-28 |
| 2026-03-04 | Health · complaint | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | E | 2026-03-28 |
| 2026-01-07 | Health · complaint | F0578 | Honor the resident's right to request, refuse, and/or discontinue treatment, to participate in or refuse to participate in experimental research, and to formulate an advance directive. | D | 2026-02-03 |
| 2026-01-07 | Health · complaint | F0678 | Provide basic life support, including CPR, prior to the arrival of emergency medical personnel , subject to physician orders and the resident’s advance directives. | J | 2026-02-03 |
| 2026-01-07 | Health · complaint | F0842 | Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards. | D | 2026-02-03 |
| 2025-10-24 | Health · complaint | F0627 | Ensure the transfer/discharge meets the resident's needs/preferences and that the resident is prepared for a safe transfer/discharge. | G | 2025-11-20 |
| 2025-10-24 | Health · complaint | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2025-11-20 |
| 2025-10-24 | Health · complaint | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | H | 2025-11-20 |
| 2025-01-30 | Health | F0554 | Allow residents to self-administer drugs if determined clinically appropriate. | D | 2025-02-28 |
| 2025-01-30 | Health | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2025-02-28 |
| 2025-01-30 | Health | F0686 | Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing. | D | 2025-02-28 |
| 2025-01-30 | Health | F0690 | Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections. | D | 2025-02-28 |
| 2025-01-30 | Health | F0695 | Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed. | D | 2025-02-28 |
| 2024-05-20 | Health · complaint | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | J | 2024-06-06 |
| 2024-05-20 | Health · complaint | F0755 | Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist. | D | 2024-04-19 |
| 2024-03-06 | Health | F0584 | Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely. | E | 2024-03-27 |
| 2024-03-06 | Health | F0686 | Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing. | G | 2024-03-27 |
| 2024-03-06 | Health | F0742 | Provide the appropriate treatment and services to a resident who displays or is diagnosed with mental disorder or psychosocial adjustment difficulty, or who has a history of trauma and/or post-traumatic stress disorder. | D | 2024-03-27 |
| 2024-03-06 | Health | F0759 | Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater. | D | 2024-03-27 |
| 2024-03-06 | Health | F0761 | Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs. | E | 2024-03-27 |
| 2024-03-06 | Health | F0804 | Ensure food and drink is palatable, attractive, and at a safe and appetizing temperature. | E | 2024-03-27 |
| 2024-03-06 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | F | 2024-03-27 |
| 2024-03-06 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | D | 2024-03-27 |
| 2023-06-14 | Health · complaint | F0602 | Protect each resident from the wrongful use of the resident's belongings or money. | D | 2023-07-11 |
| Owner | Role | Pct | From | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EVEREST OPCO GROUP LLC | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 100% | 2018-02-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| B&Y HEALTHCARE S CORP | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | — | 2018-02-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| B&Y TRUST | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | — | 2018-02-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| BLOSSOM HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT LLC | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2018-02-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| CODY HEALTHCARE S CORP | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | — | 2018-02-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| CRAIG FLASHNER 2007 TRUST | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | — | 2018-02-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| FLASHNER, CRAIG | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2018-02-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| KIRK, KRISTINE | W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE | — | 2018-02-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| NORCROSS, ROBERT | CONTRACTED MANAGING EMPLOYEE | — | 2018-02-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| PERLSTEIN, YITZCHOK | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2018-02-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| PRESTIGE ADMINISTRATIVE SERVICES, LLC | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2018-02-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| ROGERS, STACEY | CONTRACTED MANAGING EMPLOYEE | — | 2018-02-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| CRAIG FLASHNER | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2018-02-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| KRISTINE KIRK | W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE | — | 2018-02-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| ROBERT NORCROSS | CONTRACTED MANAGING EMPLOYEE | — | 2018-02-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| STACEY ROGERS | CONTRACTED MANAGING EMPLOYEE | — | 2018-02-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| YITZCHOK PERLSTEIN | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2018-02-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| Close date | Price | Buyer | Seller | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-02-01 | — | GTC OPCO LLC | FMG LAFRANIER ROAD MICHIGAN LLC | chow |
| Close | Facility | Price | $/bed | Cap rate | Beds | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-01 | Niles Care Center, LLC | — | — | — | 100 | NILES CARE CENTER LLC |
| 2025-07-01 | Medilodge of Zeeland | — | — | — | 138 | ZEELAND OPCO LLC |
| 2025-07-01 | Optalis Health & Rehabilitation of Muskegon | — | — | — | 107 | OPTALIS MUSKEGON OPCO LLC |
| 2025-07-01 | Optalis Health & Rehabilitation at Kent-Crossing | — | — | — | 182 | OPTALIS BELTLINE OPCO LLC |
| 2025-07-01 | Optalis Health & Rehabilitation at Leonard | — | — | — | 69 | OPTALIS LEONARD OPCO LLC |
| 2025-07-01 | Optalis Health & Rehabilitation of Ionia | — | — | — | 107 | OPTALIS IONIA OPCO LLC |
| 2025-04-01 | The Orchards at Big Rapids | — | — | — | 100 | BIG RAPIDS MI OPCO LLC |
| 2024-12-31 | The Orchards at Lapeer | — | — | — | 87 | LAPEER MI OPCO LLC |
| 2024-12-01 | Wexford Senior Care Center | — | — | — | 133 | WEXFORD SENIOR CARE CENTER, LLC |
| 2024-11-01 | The Orchards at Canterbury on the Lake | — | — | — | 128 | CANTERBURY MI OPCO LLC |
| 2024-09-03 | Villa at Borgess Place | — | — | — | 101 | VILLA AT BORGESS PLACE LLC |
| 2024-08-07 | Optalis Health and Rehabilitation of Grand Rapids | — | — | — | 120 | OPTALIS GRAND RAPIDS OPCO LLC |
| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 26055 | acs median gross | 0 | $1,044 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 26055 | fmr | 0 | $1,136 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 26055 | acs median gross | 1 | $1,045 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 26055 | fmr | 1 | $1,143 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 26055 | acs median gross | 2 | $1,273 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 26055 | fmr | 2 | $1,357 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 26055 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,459 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 26055 | fmr | 3 | $1,747 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 26055 | acs median gross | 4 | $1,324 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 26055 | fmr | 4 | $1,797 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 26055 | acs median gross | 5 | $1,358 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 26055 | acs median gross | $1,288 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| county 26055 | acs recent mover gross | $1,681 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 49686 | acs median gross | 0 | $978 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 49686 | acs median gross | 1 | $937 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 49686 | acs median gross | 2 | $1,227 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 49686 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,739 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 49686 | acs median gross | $1,227 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 49686 | acs recent mover gross | $1,245 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zip 49686 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $1,265 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 49686 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $1,035 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 49686 | safmr | 0 | $1,150 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 49686 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $1,265 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 49686 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $1,035 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 49686 | safmr | 1 | $1,150 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 49686 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $1,507 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 49686 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $1,233 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 49686 | safmr | 2 | $1,370 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 49686 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $1,936 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 49686 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $1,584 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 49686 | safmr | 3 | $1,760 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 49686 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $1,991 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 49686 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $1,629 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 49686 | safmr | 4 | $1,810 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |