Reads as: riskier than 94.4% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
9
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+32.9 vs natl
ROTH CO LLP
40 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+31.4 vs natl
GPN FAMILY TRUST U A D 4 28 08
74 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+30.1 vs natl
DOROS GENERATION TRUST U A D 1 3 12
72 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+26.2 vs natl
LEGACY HEALTHCARE FINANCIAL SERVICES LLC
79 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+25.1 vs natl
OAKWAY OPERATIONS LLC
44 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+24.2 vs natl
SHABAT MENACHEM
85 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+23.9 vs natl
BOKF NA
13 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
5 chains
ROTH CO LLP
35 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
50% fined
ROTH CO LLP
40 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
SD median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.00
2.96
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.27
0.52
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.00
2.75
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.00
3.06
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
39.4
3.00
0.27
0.57
2.17
3.00
4.2%
2025Q3
92
38.2
3.20
0.34
0.56
2.30
3.05
3.2%
2025Q2
91
35.5
2.82
0.36
0.47
1.99
2.73
0.1%
2025Q1
90
33.5
2.93
0.40
0.46
2.07
2.91
0.0%
2024Q4
92
36.5
2.52
0.28
0.34
1.91
2.68
0.0%
2024Q3
92
37.0
2.83
0.36
0.32
2.15
2.87
0.0%
2024Q2
91
36.7
3.31
0.51
0.35
2.45
3.09
0.0%
2024Q1
91
35.0
3.51
0.61
0.37
2.53
3.42
0.0%
2023Q4
92
32.9
3.26
0.72
0.38
2.16
3.19
9.0%
2023Q3
92
33.3
2.92
0.55
0.47
1.91
2.84
16.6%
2023Q2
91
30.7
2.91
0.39
0.56
1.96
2.85
27.8%
2023Q1
90
29.7
2.72
0.35
0.57
1.79
2.64
28.0%
2022Q4
92
33.9
2.49
0.34
0.56
1.60
2.37
32.6%
2022Q3
92
31.7
2.79
0.35
0.71
1.73
2.56
19.0%
2022Q2
91
30.5
2.44
0.30
0.82
1.32
2.30
5.1%
2022Q1
90
27.5
2.38
0.32
0.91
1.14
2.31
10.5%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Honor the resident's right to request, refuse, and/or discontinue treatment, to participate in or refuse to participate in experimental research, and to formulate an advance directive.
D
2026-01-25
2025-12-11
Health
F0641
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
E
2026-01-25
2025-12-11
Health
F0655
Create and put into place a plan for meeting the resident's most immediate needs within 48 hours of being admitted
F
2026-01-25
2025-12-11
Health
F0658
Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality.
D
2026-01-25
2025-12-11
Health
F0700
Try different approaches before using a bed rail. If a bed rail is needed, the facility must (1) assess a resident for safety risk; (2) review these risks and benefits with the resident/representative; (3) get informed consent; and (4) Correctly install and maintain the bed rail.
D
2026-01-25
2025-12-11
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
E
2026-01-25
2025-12-11
Health
F0803
Ensure menus must meet the nutritional needs of residents, be prepared in advance, be followed, be updated, be reviewed by dietician, and meet the needs of the resident.
D
2026-01-25
2025-12-11
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
D
2026-01-25
2025-12-11
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
E
2026-01-25
2024-11-26
Health · complaint
F0578
Honor the resident's right to request, refuse, and/or discontinue treatment, to participate in or refuse to participate in experimental research, and to formulate an advance directive.
G
2024-10-24
2024-07-31
Health
F0657
Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals.
E
2024-08-27
2024-07-31
Health
F0759
Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater.
E
2024-08-27
2024-07-31
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
E
2024-08-27
2023-04-14
Health
F0550
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
D
2023-05-29
2023-04-14
Health
F0559
Honor the resident's right to share a room with spouse or roommate of choice and receive written notice before a change is made.
D
2023-05-29
2023-04-14
Health
F0561
Honor the resident's right to and the facility must promote and facilitate resident self-determination through support of resident choice.
D
2023-05-29
2023-04-14
Health
F0636
Assess the resident completely in a timely manner when first admitted, and then periodically, at least every 12 months.
E
2023-05-29
2023-04-14
Health
F0655
Create and put into place a plan for meeting the resident's most immediate needs within 48 hours of being admitted
E
2023-05-29
2023-04-14
Health
F0658
Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality.
D
2023-05-29
2023-04-14
Health
F0756
Ensure a licensed pharmacist perform a monthly drug regimen review, including the medical chart, following irregularity reporting guidelines in developed policies and procedures.
D
2023-05-29
2023-04-14
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
E
2023-05-29
2023-04-14
Health
F0883
Develop and implement policies and procedures for flu and pneumonia vaccinations.
D
2023-05-29
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
16
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
DOROS GENERATION TRUST U/A/D 1/3/12
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
43%
2019-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
GPN FAMILY TRUST U/A/D 4/28/08
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
43%
2019-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
OAKWAY OPERATIONS LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
15%
2019-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
BOKF,NA
5% OR GREATER SECURITY INTEREST
—
2024-03-04
current
pecos_ownership
CARDA, BRENDA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2022-09-16
current
pecos_ownership
GROTON SD PROPERTY HOLDINGS, LLC
5% OR GREATER SECURITY INTEREST
—
2019-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
LEGACY HEALTHCARE FINANCIAL SERVICES LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-11-21
current
pecos_ownership
LEGACY HEALTHCARE FINANCIAL SERVICES LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2019-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
ROTH & CO, LLP
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
SHABAT, MENACHEM
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2019-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
STEGER, BRANDON
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2019-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
CHAIM RAJCHENBACH DESCENDANTS TR UA 04282008
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
43%
2019-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
GPN FAM TR UA 04282008
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
43%
2019-07-01
ended 2026-04-01
pecos_ownership
BRANDON STEGER
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2019-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BRENDA CARDA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-09-16
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MENACHEM SHABAT
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2019-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$351,544
$135,435
—
—
$8,099
0
propco
2023-12-31
$279,037
$54,923
—
—
$6,627
0
propco
2022-12-31
$185,915
$63,054
—
—
$7,296
0
propco
2021-12-31
$183,666
—
—
—
$6,625
0
—
2020-12-31
$153,024
—
—
—
$8,235
0
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
32
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 46013
acs median gross
0
$429
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 46013
fmr
0
$652
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 46013
acs median gross
1
$585
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 46013
fmr
1
$708
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 46013
acs median gross
2
$848
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 46013
fmr
2
$929
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 46013
acs median gross
3
$946
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 46013
fmr
3
$1,168
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 46013
acs median gross
4
$1,189
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 46013
fmr
4
$1,477
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 46013
acs median gross
5
$1,189
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 46013
acs median gross
$777
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 46013
acs recent mover gross
$913
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 57445
acs median gross
2
$943
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 57445
acs median gross
3
$1,107
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 57445
acs median gross
5
$1,201
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 57445
acs median gross
$1,015
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 57445
payment standard 110
0
$792
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 57445
payment standard 90
0
$648
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 57445
safmr
0
$720
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 57445
payment standard 110
1
$858
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 57445
payment standard 90
1
$702
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 57445
safmr
1
$780
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 57445
payment standard 110
2
$1,122
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 57445
payment standard 90
2
$918
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 57445
safmr
2
$1,020
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 57445
payment standard 110
3
$1,408
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 57445
payment standard 90
3
$1,152
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 57445
safmr
3
$1,280
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 57445
payment standard 110
4
$1,782
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 57445
payment standard 90
4
$1,458
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 57445
safmr
4
$1,620
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.