Composite
23.4 / 100 percentile
Screener / 145497
A
THREE SPRINGS SR LIVING & RHAB
snfIL
161 THREE SPRINGS ROAD, CHESTER, IL 62233 · CCN 145497 · chain WLC MANAGEMENT FIRM LLC
Peer group
snf n = 14,684
Evidence depth
deep
Certified beds
83
Model
v1.2
Reads as: riskier than 23.4% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
Score model5Components16CHOW radar1Distress radar1Staffing15Penalties0Deficiencies21Licensure0Ownership4Related party2Transactions1Comps12Market rent32
Composite explanation
5| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| staffing risk | 65.8 | 65.8 | 0.25 | 0.1923 | 12.65 | in index |
| regulatory risk | 42.6 | 31.4 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 9.83 | in index |
| billing conduct | 28.1 | 30.7 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 6.48 | in index |
| chow risk | 51.8 | 52.8 | 0.15 | 0.1154 | 5.98 | in index |
| financial risk | 12.4 | 21.3 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 2.86 | in index |
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
Component scores and registry models
16| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| billing conduct | 30.7 | B | v0.1-pacpuf-snf | default · in composite | R22. PAC PUF SNF 2023. PDPM coding intensity vs acuity, stay length, charge markup. |
| chow risk | 24.7 | A | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| chow risk | 80.8 | F | v0.6 | default · in composite | |
| financial risk | 21.3 | A | v0.5 | default · in composite | R18. |
| p adverse action 12m | 0.0 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 0.0 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
| regulatory risk | 31.4 | B | v0.3 | default · in composite | Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos. |
| staffing risk | 65.8 | D | v0.3 | default · in composite | Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS. |
| financial risk | 67.7 | D | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 47.7 | C | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 26.2 | B | v0.3 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 26.0 | B | v0.4 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 31.3 | B | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 31.3 | B | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 65.8 | D | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 65.8 | D | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
CHOW radar — 12-month sale probability
full board →p(CHOW, 12m)
0.0%
model v0.1 · computed 2026-07-29
Percentile among SNFs
12.1
100 = most likely to sell
Holdout AUC
0.874
evaluated before shipping, never refit
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Never sold on record | 0.00 | -1.62 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 3.16 | -1.54 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 1.00 | -0.87 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | +0.69 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.42 | |
| Chain size (log) | 2.94 | +0.22 | |
| Occupancy | 0.75 | -0.15 | |
| Contract staffing share | 0.00 | -0.10 |
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Distress radar — 12-month termination probability
full board →p(termination, 12m)
0.0%
model v0.1 · computed 2026-07-29
Percentile among SNFs
10.1
100 = most likely to lose certification
Holdout AUC
0.971
top decile caught 95% of actual exits
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | -0.69 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 11.00 | -0.61 | |
| Chain size (log) | 2.94 | -0.51 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.39 | |
| Never sold on record | 0.00 | -0.28 | |
| Staffing trend, last 4 quarters | 0.64 | +0.27 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 3.16 | -0.25 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 1.00 | +0.23 |
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
15| 2025Q4 HPRD | This facility | IL median | National median | National p25–p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total nurse | 3.05 | 3.13 | 3.28 | 2.90–3.77 |
| RN | 0.13 | 0.49 | 0.39 | 0.25–0.58 |
| Weekend total | 2.88 | 2.93 | 3.11 | — |
| Weekday total | 3.11 | 3.23 | 3.35 | — |
| Quarter | Days | Avg census | Total HPRD | RN | LPN | CNA | Weekend | Contract % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q4 | 92 | 62.3 | 3.05 | 0.13 | 0.94 | 1.97 | 2.88 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q3 | 92 | 65.0 | 2.69 | 0.12 | 0.78 | 1.80 | 2.65 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q2 | 91 | 61.5 | 2.97 | 0.18 | 0.78 | 2.01 | 2.94 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q1 | 90 | 56.3 | 2.97 | 0.14 | 0.78 | 2.04 | 2.88 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q4 | 92 | 65.1 | 2.40 | 0.18 | 0.57 | 1.65 | 2.24 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q3 | 92 | 60.9 | 2.68 | 0.13 | 0.55 | 2.00 | 2.61 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q2 | 91 | 64.6 | 2.86 | 0.02 | 0.88 | 1.96 | 2.71 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q1 | 91 | 62.5 | 3.00 | 0.01 | 0.81 | 2.18 | 2.87 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q4 | 92 | 70.5 | 2.90 | 0.01 | 0.78 | 2.11 | 2.86 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q2 | 91 | 56.7 | 2.90 | 0.15 | 0.73 | 2.02 | 2.74 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q1 | 90 | 45.9 | 3.26 | 0.06 | 0.88 | 2.33 | 3.33 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q4 | 92 | 43.6 | 3.18 | 0.08 | 0.91 | 2.19 | 3.11 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q3 | 92 | 43.0 | 2.93 | 0.08 | 0.95 | 1.90 | 2.94 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q2 | 91 | 42.0 | 2.80 | 0.10 | 0.96 | 1.75 | 2.89 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q1 | 90 | 38.9 | 3.05 | 0.09 | 1.03 | 1.94 | 3.11 | 0.0% |
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
21B × 3D × 6E × 4F × 7G × 1
deficiencies by survey year
| Survey | Type | Tag | Deficiency | Scope | Corrected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-18 | Health · complaint | F0760 | Ensure that residents are free from significant medication errors. | D | 2025-12-03 |
| 2025-09-16 | Health | F0727 | Have a registered nurse on duty 8 hours a day; and select a registered nurse to be the director of nurses on a full time basis. | F | 2025-09-22 |
| 2025-09-16 | Health | F0755 | Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist. | D | 2025-09-22 |
| 2025-09-16 | Health | F0800 | Provide each resident with a nourishing, palatable, well-balanced diet that meets his or her daily nutritional and special dietary needs. | E | 2025-09-22 |
| 2025-09-16 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | F | 2025-09-22 |
| 2025-09-16 | Health | F0912 | Provide rooms that are at least 80 square feet per resident in multiple rooms and 100 square feet for single resident rooms. | B | — |
| 2025-09-05 | Health · complaint | F0627 | Ensure the transfer/discharge meets the resident's needs/preferences and that the resident is prepared for a safe transfer/discharge. | D | 2025-09-22 |
| 2025-09-03 | Health · complaint | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | G | 2025-09-18 |
| 2025-08-13 | Health · complaint | F0677 | Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable. | E | 2025-08-21 |
| 2025-08-13 | Health · complaint | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | D | 2025-09-18 |
| 2025-08-13 | Health · complaint | F0725 | Provide enough nursing staff every day to meet the needs of every resident; and have a licensed nurse in charge on each shift. | E | 2025-08-21 |
| 2024-12-13 | Health · complaint | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | F | 2024-12-30 |
| 2024-11-19 | Health · complaint | F0676 | Ensure residents do not lose the ability to perform activities of daily living unless there is a medical reason. | E | 2024-11-27 |
| 2024-11-19 | Health · complaint | F0727 | Have a registered nurse on duty 8 hours a day; and select a registered nurse to be the director of nurses on a full time basis. | F | 2024-11-27 |
| 2024-11-19 | Health · complaint | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | F | 2024-11-27 |
| 2024-10-29 | Health · complaint | F0578 | Honor the resident's right to request, refuse, and/or discontinue treatment, to participate in or refuse to participate in experimental research, and to formulate an advance directive. | D | 2024-11-05 |
| 2024-10-29 | Health · complaint | F0727 | Have a registered nurse on duty 8 hours a day; and select a registered nurse to be the director of nurses on a full time basis. | F | 2024-11-19 |
| 2024-06-14 | Health | F0758 | Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited. | D | 2024-07-02 |
| 2024-06-14 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | F | 2024-07-02 |
| 2024-06-14 | Health | F0912 | Provide rooms that are at least 80 square feet per resident in multiple rooms and 100 square feet for single resident rooms. | B | 2024-07-02 |
| 2023-09-13 | Health | F0912 | Provide rooms that are at least 80 square feet per resident in multiple rooms and 100 square feet for single resident rooms. | B | 2023-09-27 |
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
4| Owner | Role | Pct | From | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STOUT, SCOTT | CORPORATE OFFICER | — | 2023-06-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| WLC MANAGEMENT FIRM LLC | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2023-06-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| WLC MANAGEMENT FIRM LLC | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2025-03-03 | current | pecos_ownership |
| SCOTT STOUT | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 100% | 2023-06-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Transactions
1| Close date | Price | Buyer | Seller | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-06-01 | — | THREE SPRINGS SENIOR LIVING & REHABILITATION LLC | THREE SPRINGS LODGE NURSING HOME LLC | chow |
Comparable trades — IL snf
12| Close | Facility | Price | $/bed | Cap rate | Beds | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-01 | RIVAYA CARE OF DES PLAINES | — | — | — | 231 | RIVAYA CARE OF DES PLAINES LLC |
| 2025-04-10 | THE PEARL OF DOWNERS GROVE | — | — | — | 145 | PEARL OF DOWNERS GROVE LLC |
| 2025-04-01 | La Bella of Mascoutah | — | — | — | 76 | MASCOUTAH REHAB AND NURSING LLC |
| 2025-04-01 | MONMOUTH REHAB AND NURSING | — | — | — | 58 | MONMOUTH REHAB AND NURSING LLC |
| 2025-03-05 | GOLDWATER CARE CLINTON | — | — | — | 134 | GOLDWATER CARE CLINTON LLC |
| 2025-03-01 | THE HAVEN OF BRIDGEPORT | — | — | — | 99 | HAVEN OF BRIDGEPORT LLC |
| 2025-03-01 | CASS COUNTY SENIOR LIVING & REHABILITATION LLC | — | — | — | 71 | CASS COUNTY SENIOR LIVING & REHABILITATION LLC |
| 2025-03-01 | Avantara Joliet | — | — | — | 154 | PRIME HEALTHCARE SENIOR LIVING, LLC |
| 2025-03-01 | THE HAVEN OF ST. ELMO | — | — | — | 60 | HAVEN OF ST. ELMO LLC |
| 2025-02-01 | Arc at Sangamon Valley | — | — | — | 171 | ARC AT SANGAMON VALLEY LLC |
| 2025-02-01 | ARC AT HICKORY POINT | — | — | — | 64 | ARC AT HICKORY POINT LLC |
| 2024-12-17 | WYNSCAPE HEALTH & REHAB | — | — | — | 209 | NELP-WYNDEMERE OPERATOR LLC |
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
32| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 17157 | acs median gross | 0 | $1,007 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 17157 | fmr | 0 | $632 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 17157 | acs median gross | 1 | $570 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 17157 | fmr | 1 | $698 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 17157 | acs median gross | 2 | $770 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 17157 | fmr | 2 | $916 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 17157 | acs median gross | 3 | $902 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 17157 | fmr | 3 | $1,145 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 17157 | acs median gross | 4 | $1,061 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 17157 | fmr | 4 | $1,450 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 17157 | acs median gross | 5 | $1,250 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 17157 | acs median gross | $780 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| county 17157 | acs recent mover gross | $849 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 62233 | acs median gross | 1 | $525 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 62233 | acs median gross | 2 | $1,003 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 62233 | acs median gross | 3 | $788 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 62233 | acs median gross | $760 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zip 62233 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $715 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 62233 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $585 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 62233 | safmr | 0 | $650 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 62233 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $792 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 62233 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $648 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 62233 | safmr | 1 | $720 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 62233 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $1,034 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 62233 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $846 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 62233 | safmr | 2 | $940 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 62233 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $1,298 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 62233 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $1,062 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 62233 | safmr | 3 | $1,180 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 62233 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $1,639 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 62233 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $1,341 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 62233 | safmr | 4 | $1,490 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.