Reads as: riskier than 43.0% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
25
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+29.8 vs natl
APERION CARE EXEC HOLDINGS LLC
26 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+29.7 vs natl
CHASE OFFICE LLC
82 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+29.0 vs natl
JOSHUA HOFFMAN TRUST
22 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+28.7 vs natl
WILHELM NAFTALI
81 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+28.2 vs natl
CURIS SERVICES LLC
85 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+28.1 vs natl
TUROFSKY STEVEN
87 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+28.1 vs natl
DAVID A BERKOWITZ REVOC TR DAVID BERKOWITZ TTEE
21 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+27.4 vs natl
SPECTOR JENNIFER
93 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+26.4 vs natl
APERION CONSULTING LLC
22 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+26.3 vs natl
BERKOWITZ DAVID
77 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+26.2 vs natl
MEYSTEL YOSEF
77 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+25.9 vs natl
APERION CARE INC
29 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+24.6 vs natl
ULBERT LISA
30 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+24.4 vs natl
YOSEF MEYSTEL DECLARATION OF TR OF YOSEF MEYSTEL TTEE
21 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+24.2 vs natl
JUDE JODIE
7 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
13 chains
CHASE OFFICE LLC
75 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
9 chains
TUROFSKY STEVEN
84 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
9 chains
SPECTOR JENNIFER
90 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
8 chains
MEYSTEL YOSEF
73 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
8 chains
BERKOWITZ DAVID
73 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
8 chains
ULBERT LISA
29 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
8 chains
WILHELM NAFTALI
78 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
8 chains
APERION CARE INC
28 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
8 chains
CURIS SERVICES LLC
81 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
7 chains
APERION CONSULTING LLC
21 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
IL median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
2.63
3.13
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.52
0.49
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.56
2.93
3.11
—
Weekday total
2.65
3.23
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
42.5
2.63
0.52
0.30
1.80
2.56
0.0%
2025Q3
92
42.7
2.77
0.45
0.43
1.88
2.54
0.0%
2025Q2
91
43.0
2.64
0.30
0.49
1.85
2.50
0.0%
2025Q1
90
44.1
2.50
0.28
0.51
1.71
2.43
0.0%
2024Q4
92
44.5
2.40
0.25
0.47
1.68
2.27
0.0%
2024Q3
92
44.2
2.37
0.26
0.47
1.64
2.29
0.0%
2024Q2
91
41.6
2.52
0.29
0.49
1.73
2.41
0.0%
2024Q1
91
43.0
2.40
0.21
0.51
1.68
2.38
0.0%
2023Q4
92
44.6
2.50
0.20
0.51
1.80
2.46
0.0%
2023Q3
92
41.1
2.39
0.19
0.48
1.73
2.27
0.0%
2023Q2
91
38.6
2.49
0.20
0.53
1.75
2.38
0.0%
2023Q1
90
35.8
2.67
0.23
0.48
1.97
2.52
0.0%
2022Q4
92
33.3
2.64
0.18
0.60
1.86
2.59
0.1%
2022Q3
92
32.3
2.44
0.36
0.57
1.51
2.32
0.7%
2022Q2
91
28.5
2.79
0.39
0.51
1.90
2.64
0.0%
2022Q1
90
29.7
2.68
0.41
0.40
1.87
2.64
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
10
D × 5E × 1F × 3G × 1
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2026-01-21
Health · complaint
F0725
Provide enough nursing staff every day to meet the needs of every resident; and have a licensed nurse in charge on each shift.
F
2026-02-02
2025-12-11
Health · complaint
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
G
2025-12-20
2025-02-11
Health · complaint
F0692
Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health.
D
2025-02-13
2024-04-18
Health
F0550
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
E
2024-04-22
2024-04-18
Health
F0801
Employ sufficient staff with the appropriate competencies and skills sets to carry out the functions of the food and nutrition service, including a qualified dietician.
F
2024-04-22
2024-04-18
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
F
2024-04-22
2023-11-20
Health · complaint
F0604
Ensure that each resident is free from the use of physical restraints, unless needed for medical treatment.
D
2023-12-05
2023-11-20
Health · complaint
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
D
2023-12-05
2023-06-09
Health
F0657
Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals.
D
2023-06-16
2023-06-09
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2023-06-16
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
33
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
665 BUSSE HIGHWAY LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
—
2024-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
665 BUSSE HIGHWAY, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-27
current
pecos_ownership
APERION CARE EXEC HOLDINGS LLC
DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2022-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
APERION CARE INC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2022-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
APERION CONSULTING, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2022-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
BERKOWITZ, DAVID
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-05-13
current
pecos_ownership
CANLAS, GINALYN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
CHASE OFFICE LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
—
2024-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
CHASE OFFICE LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
—
2023-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
CURIS SERVICES LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2022-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
DAVID A BERKOWITZ REVOC TR DAVID BERKOWITZ TTEE
DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2022-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
DOMINIAK, ERIN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2022-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
GRANRATH, REBECCA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
JOSHUA HOFFMAN TRUST
DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2022-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
JUDE, JODIE
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2022-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
MEYSTEL, YOSEF
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-05-13
current
pecos_ownership
POINTE PARK INVESTORS, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2022-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
SPECTOR, JENNIFER
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2022-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
TUROFSKY, STEVEN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
ULBERT, LISA
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2022-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
WILHELM, NAFTALI
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
YOSEF MEYSTEL DECLARATION OF TR OF YOSEF MEYSTEL TTEE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2022-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
JENNIFER SPECTOR
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
100%
2022-06-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LISA ULBERT
CORPORATE OFFICER
100%
2022-06-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOSHUA HOFFMAN TR JOSHUA HOFFMAN TTEE
DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
4%
2022-06-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
665 BUSSE HIGHWAY LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
—
2022-06-01
ended 2022-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
CHASE OFFICE LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
—
2022-06-01
ended 2022-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
ERIN DOMINIAK
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2022-06-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
GINALYN CANLAS
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2022-06-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JODIE JUDE
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2022-06-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
NAFTALI WILHELM
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2022-06-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
REBECCA GRANRATH
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-06-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
STEVEN TUROFSKY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-06-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
6
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$553,609
$206,814
—
—
$49,650
13
propco
2023-12-31
$705,988
$452,996
$57,269
—
$54,337
13
propco
2022-12-31
$227,924
$114,879
$20,245
—
$28,020
13
propco
2022-05-31
$190,500
—
—
—
—
0
—
2021-12-31
$323,413
$246,650
—
—
—
0
—
2020-12-31
$509,435
$307,797
—
—
—
0
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
35
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 17031
acs median gross
0
$1,230
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 17031
fmr
0
$1,480
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 17031
acs median gross
1
$1,271
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 17031
fmr
1
$1,581
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 17031
acs median gross
2
$1,454
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 17031
fmr
2
$1,781
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 17031
acs median gross
3
$1,693
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 17031
fmr
3
$2,294
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 17031
acs median gross
4
$1,909
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 17031
fmr
4
$2,653
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 17031
acs median gross
5
$1,794
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 17031
acs median gross
$1,435
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 17031
acs recent mover gross
$1,752
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 60068
acs median gross
0
$1,206
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 60068
acs median gross
1
$1,244
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 60068
acs median gross
2
$1,586
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 60068
acs median gross
3
$2,172
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 60068
acs median gross
4
$2,846
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 60068
acs median gross
$1,537
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 60068
acs recent mover gross
$1,473
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 60068
payment standard 110
0
$1,771
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60068
payment standard 90
0
$1,449
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60068
safmr
0
$1,610
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60068
payment standard 110
1
$1,892
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60068
payment standard 90
1
$1,548
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60068
safmr
1
$1,720
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60068
payment standard 110
2
$2,134
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60068
payment standard 90
2
$1,746
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60068
safmr
2
$1,940
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60068
payment standard 110
3
$2,750
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60068
payment standard 90
3
$2,250
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60068
safmr
3
$2,500
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60068
payment standard 110
4
$3,179
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60068
payment standard 90
4
$2,601
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60068
safmr
4
$2,890
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.