Reads as: riskier than 34.9% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
5
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
5 chains
PREFERRED THERAPY SOLUTIONS LLC
25 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
4 chains
OSTREICHER DAVID
18 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
4 chains
OSTREICHER MARC
24 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
4 chains
NATIONAL HEALTH CARE ASSOCIATES INC
24 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
4 chains
OSTREICHER MARVIN
29 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
ME median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.79
3.66
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
1.16
0.79
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.60
3.50
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.86
3.71
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
37.5
3.79
1.16
0.19
2.44
3.60
5.7%
2025Q3
92
37.8
3.71
1.03
0.34
2.33
3.46
3.5%
2025Q2
91
38.2
3.69
1.01
0.31
2.36
3.54
0.5%
2025Q1
90
39.5
3.52
0.90
0.23
2.39
3.54
0.5%
2024Q4
92
39.1
3.59
0.94
0.21
2.44
3.50
8.1%
2024Q3
92
37.9
3.68
1.11
0.09
2.48
3.57
4.6%
2024Q2
91
38.9
3.74
1.08
0.14
2.53
3.68
6.1%
2024Q1
91
38.1
3.57
1.08
0.12
2.37
3.46
0.0%
2023Q4
92
38.8
3.55
1.00
0.23
2.32
3.47
0.0%
2023Q3
92
37.8
3.72
1.01
0.24
2.47
3.55
0.3%
2023Q2
91
38.9
3.71
1.02
0.19
2.49
3.53
0.0%
2023Q1
90
40.4
3.41
0.97
0.19
2.25
3.27
0.0%
2022Q4
92
39.5
3.44
0.98
0.24
2.22
3.34
0.0%
2022Q3
92
39.1
3.45
1.00
0.25
2.20
3.32
0.2%
2022Q2
91
38.1
3.58
1.04
0.23
2.31
3.36
0.0%
2022Q1
90
39.0
3.45
1.03
0.14
2.29
3.28
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
10
D × 4E × 5F × 1
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2025-04-24
Health
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2025-06-02
2025-04-24
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2025-06-02
2025-04-24
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2025-06-02
2025-04-24
Health
F0725
Provide enough nursing staff every day to meet the needs of every resident; and have a licensed nurse in charge on each shift.
F
2025-06-02
2025-04-24
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
E
2025-06-02
2025-04-24
Health · complaint
F0940
Develop, implement, and/or maintain an effective training program for all new and existing staff members.
E
2025-06-02
2023-02-15
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2023-03-13
2021-06-10
Health
F0584
Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely.
E
2021-07-09
2021-06-10
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
E
2021-07-09
2021-06-10
Health
F0814
Dispose of garbage and refuse properly.
E
2021-07-09
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
70
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
ALMEIDA, ELIZABETH
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2013-01-28
current
pecos_ownership
BARRY BOKOW 2012 FAMILY TRUST
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2013-01-28
current
pecos_ownership
BOKOW, BARRY
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2013-01-28
current
pecos_ownership
BOKOW, BARRY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2016-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
BOKOW, MICHAEL
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2015-09-30
current
pecos_ownership
BPB VENTURES LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2013-01-28
current
pecos_ownership
CEDAR HILL NG TRUST
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-05-14
current
pecos_ownership
DAVID, ALBERT
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2013-01-28
current
pecos_ownership
GEFFNER, IRA
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2013-01-28
current
pecos_ownership
GILMARTIN, THOMAS
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2016-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
GLUCK, ROBERT
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2013-01-28
current
pecos_ownership
IMPACT HEALTH PC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
JUNIPER NG TRUST
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-05-14
current
pecos_ownership
LOBELL, JONAH
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2013-01-28
current
pecos_ownership
LOPIANSKY, REBECCA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-05-14
current
pecos_ownership
LOWINGER, BEN
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2013-01-28
current
pecos_ownership
LOWINGER, JOSEPH
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2013-01-28
current
pecos_ownership
MARVIN OSTREICHER FAMILY TRUST 2012
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2013-01-28
current
pecos_ownership
MERIDIAN CAPITAL FOUNDATION
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2013-01-28
current
pecos_ownership
MSO ASSOCIATES LLC
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2013-01-28
current
pecos_ownership
NATIONAL HEALTH CARE ASSOCIATES INC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2013-01-28
current
pecos_ownership
OAK DRIVE NG TRUST
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-05-14
current
pecos_ownership
OSTREICHER, DAVID
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-05-14
current
pecos_ownership
OSTREICHER, DAVID
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2013-01-28
current
pecos_ownership
OSTREICHER, MARC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-05-14
current
pecos_ownership
OSTREICHER, MARC
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2013-01-28
current
pecos_ownership
OSTREICHER, MARVIN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2013-01-28
current
pecos_ownership
OSTREICHER, SUSAN
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2013-01-28
current
pecos_ownership
PREFERRED PROFESSIONAL SERVICES LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2013-01-28
current
pecos_ownership
PREFERRED THERAPY SOLUTIONS LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2013-01-28
current
pecos_ownership
ROLLING HILL NG TRUST
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-05-14
current
pecos_ownership
ROSEBERRY, NATHAN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-07-30
current
pecos_ownership
ROSEBERRY, NATHAN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-09-27
current
pecos_ownership
SCHOOR, KALMAN
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2013-01-28
current
pecos_ownership
SHAYA-MOGRABY, MOSHE
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2013-01-28
current
pecos_ownership
STEG, SHAYNA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-05-14
current
pecos_ownership
STEG, YITZCHOK
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2013-01-28
current
pecos_ownership
SUSAN OSTREICHER FAMILY TRUST 2012
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2013-01-28
current
pecos_ownership
VENTAS NHV FUND
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2013-01-28
current
pecos_ownership
VENTURA, JOSE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-07-14
current
pecos_ownership
VENTURA, JOSE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
VK HEALTH FACILITIES LLC
DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2013-01-28
current
pecos_ownership
WEINSTOCK, ABRAHAM
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2013-01-28
current
pecos_ownership
MARVIN OSTREICHER
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
100%
2013-01-28
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SUSAN OSTREICHER
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
18%
2013-01-28
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ABRAHAM WEINSTOCK
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
7%
2013-01-28
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JONAH LOBELL
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
7%
2013-01-28
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KALMAN SCHOOR
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
7%
2013-01-28
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ROBERT GLUCK
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
7%
2013-01-28
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARC OSTREICHER
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
5%
2013-01-28
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
YITZCHOK STEG
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
5%
2013-01-28
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ALBERT DAVID
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
4%
2013-01-28
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MOSHE SHAYA-MOGRABY
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
4%
2013-01-28
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BEN LOWINGER
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
3%
2013-01-28
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOSEPH LOWINGER
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
3%
2013-01-28
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DAVID OSTREICHER
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
2%
2013-01-28
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BARRY BOKOW
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
2%
2013-01-28
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
IRA GEFFNER
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
2%
2013-01-28
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BARRY BOKOW
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2016-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DAVID OSTREICHER
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-05-14
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ELIZABETH ALMEIDA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2013-01-28
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOSE VENTURA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-07-14
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOSE VENTURA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-06-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARC OSTREICHER
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-05-14
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MICHAEL BOKOW
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2015-09-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
NATHAN ROSEBERRY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-09-27
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
NATHAN ROSEBERRY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-07-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
REBECCA LOPIANSKY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-05-14
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SHAYNA STEG
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-05-14
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
THOMAS GILMARTIN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2016-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$940,834
—
—
$410,008
$4,739
3
—
2023-12-31
$903,422
—
—
$345,195
$557,938
3
—
2022-12-31
$697,621
—
—
$333,334
$364,003
3
—
2021-12-31
$708,524
—
—
$333,979
$4,099
3
—
2020-12-31
$684,867
—
—
$318,306
$11,221
3
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
26
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 23017
acs median gross
0
$520
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 23017
acs median gross
1
$602
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 23017
acs median gross
2
$900
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 23017
acs median gross
3
$1,113
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 23017
acs median gross
4
$1,541
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 23017
acs median gross
5
$1,705
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 23017
acs median gross
$836
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 23017
acs recent mover gross
$963
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 04268
acs median gross
1
$765
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 04268
acs median gross
2
$850
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 04268
acs median gross
$770
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 04268
payment standard 110
0
$825
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 04268
payment standard 90
0
$675
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 04268
safmr
0
$750
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 04268
payment standard 110
1
$913
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 04268
payment standard 90
1
$747
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 04268
safmr
1
$830
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 04268
payment standard 110
2
$1,199
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 04268
payment standard 90
2
$981
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 04268
safmr
2
$1,090
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 04268
payment standard 110
3
$1,672
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 04268
payment standard 90
3
$1,368
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 04268
safmr
3
$1,520
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 04268
payment standard 110
4
$2,013
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 04268
payment standard 90
4
$1,647
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 04268
safmr
4
$1,830
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.