Composite
36.6 / 100 percentile
| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| financial risk | 65.5 | 56.0 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 15.12 | in index |
| billing conduct | 54.9 | 41.5 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 12.67 | in index |
| regulatory risk | 50.3 | 39.5 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 11.61 | in index |
| staffing risk | 16.6 | 16.7 | 0.25 | 0.1923 | 3.19 | in index |
| chow risk | 7.5 | 14.8 | 0.15 | 0.1154 | 0.87 | in index |
| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| billing conduct | 41.5 | B | v0.1-pacpuf-snf | default · in composite | R22. PAC PUF SNF 2023. PDPM coding intensity vs acuity, stay length, charge markup. |
| chow risk | 23.4 | A | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| chow risk | 6.3 | A | v0.6 | default · in composite | |
| financial risk | 56.0 | C | v0.5 | default · in composite | R18. |
| p adverse action 12m | 0.0 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 0.1 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
| regulatory risk | 39.5 | B | v0.3 | default · in composite | Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos. |
| staffing risk | 16.7 | A | v0.3 | default · in composite | Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS. |
| financial risk | 69.8 | D | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 49.8 | C | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 71.2 | D | v0.3 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 54.8 | C | v0.4 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 39.3 | B | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 39.3 | B | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 16.7 | A | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 16.7 | A | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Never sold on record | 0.00 | -1.62 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 9.37 | -0.94 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | +0.69 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.42 | |
| Occupancy | 0.83 | -0.39 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 0.00 | +0.20 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 4.03 | -0.20 | |
| Chain size (log) | 1.10 | -0.17 |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 12.00 | -0.80 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | -0.69 | |
| Chain size (log) | 1.10 | +0.56 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.39 | |
| Occupancy | 0.83 | -0.35 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 4.03 | -0.34 | |
| Never sold on record | 0.00 | -0.28 | |
| Facility size (log beds) | 5.42 | -0.22 |
| 2025Q4 HPRD | This facility | NY median | National median | National p25–p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total nurse | 4.03 | 3.33 | 3.28 | 2.90–3.77 |
| RN | 0.44 | 0.43 | 0.39 | 0.25–0.58 |
| Weekend total | 3.72 | 3.03 | 3.11 | — |
| Weekday total | 4.15 | 3.44 | 3.35 | — |
| Quarter | Days | Avg census | Total HPRD | RN | LPN | CNA | Weekend | Contract % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q4 | 92 | 187.4 | 4.03 | 0.44 | 0.94 | 2.65 | 3.72 | 4.5% |
| 2025Q3 | 92 | 190.3 | 3.93 | 0.37 | 0.97 | 2.59 | 3.64 | 6.3% |
| 2025Q2 | 91 | 193.1 | 3.95 | 0.45 | 0.94 | 2.56 | 3.60 | 21.3% |
| 2025Q1 | 90 | 192.1 | 3.94 | 0.39 | 1.02 | 2.53 | 3.68 | 40.1% |
| 2024Q4 | 92 | 192.9 | 3.81 | 0.23 | 1.04 | 2.55 | 3.60 | 43.3% |
| 2024Q3 | 92 | 194.6 | 3.71 | 0.22 | 1.08 | 2.41 | 3.46 | 44.7% |
| 2024Q2 | 91 | 193.2 | 3.74 | 0.24 | 1.11 | 2.40 | 3.52 | 47.0% |
| 2024Q1 | 91 | 192.6 | 3.83 | 0.24 | 1.11 | 2.48 | 3.64 | 45.5% |
| 2023Q4 | 92 | 178.2 | 4.24 | 0.31 | 1.27 | 2.67 | 3.81 | 47.1% |
| 2023Q3 | 92 | 186.8 | 3.73 | 0.38 | 1.15 | 2.21 | 3.24 | 38.1% |
| 2023Q2 | 91 | 190.7 | 3.27 | 0.25 | 1.06 | 1.96 | 2.92 | 28.4% |
| 2023Q1 | 90 | 190.3 | 3.28 | 0.24 | 1.12 | 1.92 | 2.94 | 29.1% |
| 2022Q4 | 92 | 185.9 | 3.06 | 0.24 | 0.94 | 1.87 | 2.75 | 23.9% |
| 2022Q3 | 92 | 189.4 | 3.26 | 0.21 | 1.11 | 1.95 | 2.94 | 25.5% |
| 2022Q2 | 91 | 190.2 | 3.39 | 0.22 | 1.13 | 2.03 | 3.04 | 26.3% |
| 2022Q1 | 90 | 190.7 | 3.29 | 0.21 | 1.06 | 2.03 | 2.84 | 32.4% |
| Survey | Type | Tag | Deficiency | Scope | Corrected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-12 | Health · complaint | F0641 | Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment. | D | 2026-03-18 |
| 2026-02-12 | Health · complaint | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2026-03-18 |
| 2026-01-12 | Health | F0550 | Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights. | D | 2026-02-13 |
| 2026-01-12 | Health | F0645 | PASARR screening for Mental disorders or Intellectual Disabilities | D | 2026-02-13 |
| 2026-01-12 | Health | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2026-02-13 |
| 2026-01-12 | Health | F0686 | Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing. | D | 2026-02-13 |
| 2026-01-12 | Health | F0695 | Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed. | D | 2026-02-13 |
| 2026-01-12 | Health | F0761 | Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs. | D | 2026-02-13 |
| 2026-01-12 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | F | 2026-02-13 |
| 2025-08-25 | Health · complaint | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | D | 2025-09-19 |
| 2025-08-25 | Health · complaint | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | D | 2025-09-19 |
| 2025-08-25 | Health · complaint | F0921 | Make sure that the nursing home area is safe, easy to use, clean and comfortable for residents, staff and the public. | E | 2025-09-19 |
| 2024-12-05 | Health · complaint | F0609 | Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities. | D | 2025-01-09 |
| 2024-12-05 | Health · complaint | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | D | 2025-01-09 |
| 2024-12-05 | Health · complaint | F0730 | Observe each nurse aide's job performance and give regular training. | D | 2025-01-09 |
| 2024-10-01 | Health · complaint | F0641 | Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment. | D | 2024-10-29 |
| 2024-10-01 | Health · complaint | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | D | 2024-10-29 |
| 2024-10-01 | Health · complaint | F0657 | Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals. | D | 2024-10-29 |
| 2024-10-01 | Health · complaint | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | D | 2024-10-29 |
| 2023-12-05 | Health | F0554 | Allow residents to self-administer drugs if determined clinically appropriate. | D | 2024-01-23 |
| 2023-12-05 | Health | F0561 | Honor the resident's right to and the facility must promote and facilitate resident self-determination through support of resident choice. | D | 2024-01-23 |
| 2023-12-05 | Health | F0582 | Give residents notice of Medicaid/Medicare coverage and potential liability for services not covered. | D | 2024-01-23 |
| 2023-12-05 | Health | F0584 | Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely. | E | 2024-01-23 |
| 2023-12-05 | Health | F0625 | Notify the resident or the resident’s representative in writing how long the nursing home will hold the resident’s bed in cases of transfer to a hospital or therapeutic leave. | D | 2024-01-23 |
| 2023-12-05 | Health | F0641 | Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment. | E | 2024-01-23 |
| 2023-12-05 | Health | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | D | 2024-01-23 |
| 2023-12-05 | Health | F0657 | Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals. | D | 2024-01-23 |
| 2023-12-05 | Health · complaint | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2024-01-23 |
| 2023-12-05 | Health | F0730 | Observe each nurse aide's job performance and give regular training. | D | 2024-01-23 |
| 2023-12-05 | Health | F0761 | Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs. | D | 2024-01-23 |
| 2023-12-05 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | D | 2024-01-23 |
| 2020-09-24 | Health | F0553 | Allow resident to participate in the development and implementation of his or her person-centered plan of care. | D | 2020-11-18 |
| 2020-09-24 | Health | F0609 | Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities. | D | 2020-11-18 |
| 2020-09-24 | Health | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | D | 2020-11-18 |
| 2020-09-24 | Health | F0678 | Provide basic life support, including CPR, prior to the arrival of emergency medical personnel , subject to physician orders and the resident’s advance directives. | D | 2019-12-29 |
| 2020-09-24 | Health | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | E | 2020-11-18 |
| 2020-09-24 | Health | F0688 | Provide appropriate care for a resident to maintain and/or improve range of motion (ROM), limited ROM and/or mobility, unless a decline is for a medical reason. | E | 2020-11-18 |
| 2020-09-24 | Health | F0850 | Hire a qualified full-time social worker in a facility with more than 120 beds. | D | 2020-11-18 |
| Owner | Role | Pct | From | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LIGHT OPERATIONAL HOLDINGS ASSOCIATES LL | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 98% | 2017-03-15 | current | pecos_ownership |
| HOCH, MICHAEL | W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE | — | 2017-03-15 | current | pecos_ownership |
| JEFFREY SICKLICK | OTHER | — | 2017-03-15 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| KENNETH ROZENBERG | OTHER | — | 2017-03-15 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| MICHAEL HOCH | W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE | — | 2017-03-15 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| Close date | Price | Buyer | Seller | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-03-15 | — | SCHNUR OPERATIONS ASSOC LLC | SCHNURMACHER CENTER FOR REHABILITATION AND NURSING | chow |
| Close | Facility | Price | $/bed | Cap rate | Beds | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-06-01 | PINE FOREST CARE CENTER FOR REHAB & HEALTHCARE | — | — | — | 76 | HILAIRE CARE NETWORK LLC |
| 2024-05-17 | Fairport Rehabilitation and Nursing Center | — | — | — | 196 | FAIRPORT SNF LLC |
| 2024-05-09 | MARIA REGINA REHABILITATION AND NURSING | — | — | — | 188 | OPTIMA CARE BRENTWOOD LLC |
| 2024-02-01 | TUPPER LAKE CENTER FOR NURSING AND REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 60 | TUPPER LAKE CENTER LLC |
| 2023-08-31 | WEST VILLAGE REHABILITATION AND NURSING CENTER | — | — | — | 105 | VILLAGE ACQUISITION I LLC |
| 2023-06-23 | Crest Manor Living and Rehabilitation Center | — | — | — | 80 | CREST OPCO LLC |
| 2023-06-23 | East Side Nursing Home | — | — | — | 80 | EASTSIDE OPCO LLC |
| 2023-05-05 | SPRINGVALE NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER | — | — | — | 200 | THE PREMIER CENTER FOR REHABILITATION OF WESTCHESTER LLC |
| 2023-04-21 | LIVINGSTON HILLS NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER | — | — | — | 120 | LIVINGSTON TWO OPERATIONS LLC |
| 2023-01-12 | EDEN REHABILITATION NURSING CENTER | — | — | — | 40 | EDRNC OPERATING LLC |
| 2023-01-01 | DUNKIRK REHABILITATION & NURSING CENTER | — | — | — | 40 | DURNC OPERATING LLC |
| 2022-09-12 | ROSS CENTER FOR NURSING AND REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 135 | ROSS OPCO LLC |
| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 36119 | acs median gross | 0 | $1,443 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 36119 | fmr | 0 | $2,529 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 36119 | acs median gross | 1 | $1,767 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 36119 | fmr | 1 | $2,655 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 36119 | acs median gross | 2 | $2,095 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 36119 | fmr | 2 | $2,910 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 36119 | acs median gross | 3 | $2,400 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 36119 | fmr | 3 | $3,644 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 36119 | acs median gross | 4 | $2,539 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 36119 | fmr | 4 | $3,959 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 36119 | acs median gross | 5 | $3,074 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 36119 | acs median gross | $1,951 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| county 36119 | acs recent mover gross | $2,334 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 10606 | acs median gross | 0 | $2,584 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 10606 | acs median gross | 1 | $2,260 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 10606 | acs median gross | 2 | $2,557 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 10606 | acs median gross | 3 | $2,955 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 10606 | acs median gross | 4 | $3,501 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 10606 | acs median gross | $2,561 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 10606 | acs recent mover gross | $2,406 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zip 10606 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $3,608 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 10606 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $2,952 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 10606 | safmr | 0 | $3,280 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 10606 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $3,784 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 10606 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $3,096 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 10606 | safmr | 1 | $3,440 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 10606 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $4,147 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 10606 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $3,393 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 10606 | safmr | 2 | $3,770 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 10606 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $5,192 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 10606 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $4,248 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 10606 | safmr | 3 | $4,720 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 10606 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $5,643 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 10606 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $4,617 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 10606 | safmr | 4 | $5,130 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |