Composite
71.7 / 100 percentile
| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| regulatory risk | 59.9 | 51.1 | 0.30 | 0.4286 | 25.67 | in index |
| chow risk | 99.2 | 69.5 | 0.15 | 0.2143 | 21.26 | in index |
| staffing risk | 27.3 | 27.4 | 0.25 | 0.3571 | 9.75 | in index |
| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| chow risk | 69.5 | D | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| p adverse action 12m | 0.0 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 6.3 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
| regulatory risk | 51.1 | C | v0.3 | default · in composite | Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos. |
| staffing risk | 27.4 | B | v0.3 | default · in composite | Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS. |
| regulatory risk | 51.0 | C | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 51.0 | C | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 27.4 | B | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 27.4 | B | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | +0.69 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.62 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 25.00 | +0.57 | |
| Chain size (log) | 4.25 | +0.50 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.42 | |
| Occupancy | 0.83 | -0.38 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 18.00 | +0.27 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 0.00 | +0.20 |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 18.00 | -1.91 | |
| Chain size (log) | 4.25 | -1.27 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | -0.69 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.39 | |
| Occupancy | 0.83 | -0.33 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 3.71 | -0.21 | |
| Fine amount, 12m (log) | 0.00 | +0.18 | |
| Facility size (log beds) | 5.04 | -0.14 |
| 2025Q4 HPRD | This facility | MI median | National median | National p25–p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total nurse | 3.71 | 3.52 | 3.28 | 2.90–3.77 |
| RN | 0.24 | 0.47 | 0.39 | 0.25–0.58 |
| Weekend total | 3.50 | 3.32 | 3.11 | — |
| Weekday total | 3.79 | 3.61 | 3.35 | — |
| Quarter | Days | Avg census | Total HPRD | RN | LPN | CNA | Weekend | Contract % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q4 | 92 | 127.5 | 3.71 | 0.24 | 1.28 | 2.19 | 3.50 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q3 | 92 | 114.4 | 3.72 | 0.25 | 1.23 | 2.23 | 3.52 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q2 | 91 | 107.5 | 3.81 | 0.21 | 1.31 | 2.28 | 3.72 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q1 | 90 | 107.6 | 3.77 | 0.21 | 1.36 | 2.19 | 3.56 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q4 | 92 | 75.6 | 3.95 | 0.29 | 1.56 | 2.11 | 3.78 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q3 | 92 | 49.6 | 4.82 | 0.31 | 2.06 | 2.45 | 4.39 | 0.0% |
| Date | Type | Fine | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-15 | Payment Denial | — | CMS provider data |
| Survey | Type | Tag | Deficiency | Scope | Corrected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-18 | Health · complaint | F0609 | Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities. | D | 2026-04-13 |
| 2026-03-18 | Health · complaint | F0658 | Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality. | D | 2026-04-13 |
| 2026-03-18 | Health · complaint | F0676 | Ensure residents do not lose the ability to perform activities of daily living unless there is a medical reason. | E | 2026-04-13 |
| 2026-03-18 | Health · complaint | F0677 | Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable. | D | 2026-04-13 |
| 2026-03-18 | Health · complaint | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2026-04-13 |
| 2026-03-18 | Health · complaint | F0686 | Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing. | G | 2026-04-13 |
| 2026-03-18 | Health · complaint | F0690 | Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections. | D | 2026-04-13 |
| 2026-03-18 | Health · complaint | F0695 | Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed. | D | 2026-04-13 |
| 2026-02-02 | Health · complaint | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | G | 2026-02-26 |
| 2026-02-02 | Health · complaint | F0740 | Ensure each resident must receive and the facility must provide necessary behavioral health care and services. | D | 2026-02-26 |
| 2025-11-20 | Health · complaint | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2025-12-11 |
| 2025-11-20 | Health · complaint | F0690 | Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections. | D | 2025-12-11 |
| 2025-11-20 | Health · complaint | F0761 | Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs. | D | 2025-12-11 |
| 2025-11-20 | Health · complaint | F0809 | Ensure meals and snacks are served at times in accordance with resident’s needs, preferences, and requests. Suitable and nourishing alternative meals and snacks must be provided for residents who want to eat at non-traditional times or outside of scheduled meal times. | D | 2025-12-11 |
| 2025-11-20 | Health · complaint | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | D | 2025-12-11 |
| 2025-08-21 | Health · complaint | F0635 | Provide doctor's orders for the resident's immediate care at the time the resident was admitted. | D | 2025-09-17 |
| 2025-08-21 | Health · complaint | F0658 | Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality. | D | 2025-09-17 |
| 2025-08-21 | Health · complaint | F0761 | Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs. | D | 2025-09-17 |
| 2025-05-15 | Health · complaint | F0690 | Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections. | G | 2025-06-16 |
| 2025-05-15 | Health · complaint | F0842 | Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards. | D | 2025-06-16 |
| 2025-03-27 | Health · complaint | F0550 | Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights. | E | 2025-04-29 |
| 2025-03-27 | Health · complaint | F0558 | Reasonably accommodate the needs and preferences of each resident. | D | 2025-04-29 |
| 2025-03-27 | Health | F0565 | Honor the resident's right to organize and participate in resident/family groups in the facility. | E | 2025-04-29 |
| 2025-03-27 | Health | F0658 | Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality. | D | 2025-04-29 |
| 2025-03-27 | Health · complaint | F0677 | Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable. | E | 2025-04-29 |
| 2025-03-27 | Health · complaint | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2025-04-29 |
| 2025-03-27 | Health | F0686 | Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing. | D | 2025-04-29 |
| 2025-03-27 | Health · complaint | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | E | 2025-04-29 |
| 2025-03-27 | Health · complaint | F0692 | Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health. | D | 2025-04-29 |
| 2025-03-27 | Health | F0740 | Ensure each resident must receive and the facility must provide necessary behavioral health care and services. | D | 2025-04-29 |
| 2025-03-27 | Health | F0761 | Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs. | D | 2025-04-29 |
| 2025-03-27 | Health | F0773 | Provide or obtain laboratory tests/services when ordered and promptly tell the ordering practitioner of the results. | D | 2025-04-29 |
| 2025-03-27 | Health · complaint | F0803 | Ensure menus must meet the nutritional needs of residents, be prepared in advance, be followed, be updated, be reviewed by dietician, and meet the needs of the resident. | D | 2025-04-29 |
| 2025-03-27 | Health | F0804 | Ensure food and drink is palatable, attractive, and at a safe and appetizing temperature. | D | 2025-04-29 |
| 2025-03-27 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | F | 2025-04-29 |
| 2025-03-27 | Health · complaint | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | E | 2025-04-29 |
| 2025-02-12 | Health · complaint | F0677 | Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable. | D | 2025-03-12 |
| 2025-02-12 | Health · complaint | F0686 | Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing. | D | 2025-03-12 |
| 2025-02-12 | Health · complaint | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | D | 2025-03-12 |
| 2025-01-29 | Health · complaint | F0585 | Honor the resident's right to voice grievances without discrimination or reprisal and the facility must establish a grievance policy and make prompt efforts to resolve grievances. | D | 2025-02-19 |
| 2024-12-10 | Health · complaint | F0622 | Not transfer or discharge a resident without an adequate reason; and must provide documentation and convey specific information when a resident is transferred or discharged. | D | 2025-01-07 |
| 2024-12-10 | Health · complaint | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | E | 2025-01-07 |
| 2024-12-10 | Health · complaint | F0686 | Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing. | E | 2025-01-07 |
| 2024-12-10 | Health · complaint | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | F | 2025-01-07 |
| Owner | Role | Pct | From | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TROY SENIOR LEASING LLC | Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider | 100% | 2024-01-01 | current | hcris_a_8_1 |
| CIENA HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT INC | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2025-03-24 | current | pecos_ownership |
| CIENA HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT INC | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2024-04-19 | current | pecos_ownership |
| KHAN, ANIS | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2024-01-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| MOHAMMAD A QAZI LIVING TRUST DATED 09/26/97 | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2024-01-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| PACKEY, DREW | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2025-01-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| PERUSKI, BRADLEY | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2023-09-18 | current | pecos_ownership |
| QAZI, MOHAMMAD | INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | — | 2024-01-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| MOHAMMAD QAZI | INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 100% | 2024-01-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| ANIS KHAN | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2024-01-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| BRADLEY PERUSKI | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2023-09-18 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| DREW PACKEY | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2025-01-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| Close | Facility | Price | $/bed | Cap rate | Beds | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-01 | Niles Care Center, LLC | — | — | — | 100 | NILES CARE CENTER LLC |
| 2025-07-01 | Medilodge of Zeeland | — | — | — | 138 | ZEELAND OPCO LLC |
| 2025-07-01 | Optalis Health & Rehabilitation of Muskegon | — | — | — | 107 | OPTALIS MUSKEGON OPCO LLC |
| 2025-07-01 | Optalis Health & Rehabilitation at Kent-Crossing | — | — | — | 182 | OPTALIS BELTLINE OPCO LLC |
| 2025-07-01 | Optalis Health & Rehabilitation at Leonard | — | — | — | 69 | OPTALIS LEONARD OPCO LLC |
| 2025-07-01 | Optalis Health & Rehabilitation of Ionia | — | — | — | 107 | OPTALIS IONIA OPCO LLC |
| 2025-04-01 | The Orchards at Big Rapids | — | — | — | 100 | BIG RAPIDS MI OPCO LLC |
| 2024-12-31 | The Orchards at Lapeer | — | — | — | 87 | LAPEER MI OPCO LLC |
| 2024-12-01 | Wexford Senior Care Center | — | — | — | 133 | WEXFORD SENIOR CARE CENTER, LLC |
| 2024-11-01 | The Orchards at Canterbury on the Lake | — | — | — | 128 | CANTERBURY MI OPCO LLC |
| 2024-09-03 | Villa at Borgess Place | — | — | — | 101 | VILLA AT BORGESS PLACE LLC |
| 2024-08-07 | Optalis Health and Rehabilitation of Grand Rapids | — | — | — | 120 | OPTALIS GRAND RAPIDS OPCO LLC |
| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 26125 | acs median gross | 0 | $1,043 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 26125 | fmr | 0 | $1,009 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 26125 | acs median gross | 1 | $1,122 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 26125 | fmr | 1 | $1,122 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 26125 | acs median gross | 2 | $1,466 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 26125 | fmr | 2 | $1,411 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 26125 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,728 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 26125 | fmr | 3 | $1,724 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 26125 | acs median gross | 4 | $2,152 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 26125 | fmr | 4 | $1,868 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 26125 | acs median gross | 5 | $1,881 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 26125 | acs median gross | $1,376 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| county 26125 | acs recent mover gross | $1,492 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 48084 | acs median gross | 0 | $1,482 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 48084 | acs median gross | 1 | $1,431 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 48084 | acs median gross | 2 | $1,765 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 48084 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,895 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 48084 | acs median gross | 4 | $2,471 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 48084 | acs median gross | $1,671 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 48084 | acs recent mover gross | $1,783 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zip 48084 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $1,573 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 48084 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $1,287 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 48084 | safmr | 0 | $1,430 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 48084 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $1,749 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 48084 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $1,431 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 48084 | safmr | 1 | $1,590 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 48084 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $2,200 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 48084 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $1,800 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 48084 | safmr | 2 | $2,000 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 48084 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $2,684 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 48084 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $2,196 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 48084 | safmr | 3 | $2,440 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 48084 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $2,915 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 48084 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $2,385 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 48084 | safmr | 4 | $2,650 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |