50 15 BEACH CHANNEL DRIVE, FAR ROCKAWAY, NY 11691 · CCN 335387
Composite
82.0 / 100 percentile
Peer group
snf n = 14,684
Evidence depth
deep
Certified beds
200
Model
v1.2
Reads as: riskier than 82.0% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
1
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
40% fined
MELNICKE MICHAEL
10 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later lease_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
NY median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.15
3.33
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.86
0.43
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.93
3.03
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.24
3.44
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
179.8
3.15
0.86
0.27
2.02
2.93
50.0%
2025Q3
92
183.0
3.07
0.86
0.29
1.92
2.92
54.5%
2025Q2
91
189.4
3.10
0.83
0.24
2.04
2.90
59.3%
2025Q1
90
180.8
3.08
0.79
0.26
2.02
2.87
54.9%
2024Q4
92
173.4
3.12
0.83
0.28
2.01
2.92
51.0%
2024Q3
92
172.2
3.21
0.85
0.32
2.03
2.98
39.8%
2024Q2
91
175.1
3.12
0.79
0.33
2.01
2.95
37.8%
2024Q1
91
172.3
3.13
0.79
0.31
2.03
2.95
38.4%
2023Q4
92
176.4
2.99
0.74
0.32
1.93
2.78
35.7%
2023Q3
92
168.4
3.03
0.73
0.35
1.95
2.78
31.2%
2023Q2
91
176.3
3.08
0.77
0.34
1.97
2.82
35.4%
2023Q1
90
178.3
3.18
0.74
0.32
2.11
2.87
33.7%
2022Q4
92
173.9
3.17
0.69
0.35
2.13
2.86
30.3%
2022Q3
92
172.4
3.00
0.57
0.34
2.10
2.60
28.2%
2022Q2
91
157.8
3.50
0.61
0.36
2.54
3.03
36.2%
2022Q1
90
165.3
3.15
0.58
0.35
2.22
2.85
28.2%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
G
2025-12-23
2025-10-31
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
J
2025-12-23
2024-07-03
Health
F0582
Give residents notice of Medicaid/Medicare coverage and potential liability for services not covered.
D
2024-08-23
2024-07-03
Health
F0711
Ensure the resident's doctor reviews the resident's care, writes, signs and dates progress notes and orders, at each required visit.
D
2024-08-23
2024-07-03
Health
F0791
Provide or obtain dental services for each resident.
D
2024-08-23
2024-07-03
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
E
2024-08-23
2023-06-22
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2023-07-07
2022-07-28
Health
F0584
Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely.
D
2022-09-23
2022-07-28
Health
F0679
Provide activities to meet all resident's needs.
D
2022-09-23
2019-08-14
Health
F0550
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
D
2019-10-13
2019-08-14
Health
F0610
Respond appropriately to all alleged violations.
D
2019-10-13
2019-08-14
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2019-10-13
2019-08-14
Health
F0657
Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals.
D
2019-10-13
2019-08-14
Health
F0658
Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality.
D
2019-10-13
2019-08-14
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2019-10-13
2019-08-14
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2019-10-13
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
15
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
BRUNNER, JOSEPH
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
38%
2012-07-06
current
pecos_ownership
MELNICKE, MICHAEL
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
38%
2012-07-06
current
pecos_ownership
FRIEDMAN, LEOPOLD
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
25%
2012-07-06
current
pecos_ownership
BEACH 50TH STREET LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
—
2023-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
BEACH 50TH STREET LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
—
2024-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
DEROSA, ANTHONY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2012-07-06
current
pecos_ownership
SKUTZKA, ALEXANDER
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2014-04-08
current
pecos_ownership
ALEXANDER SKUTZKA
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
100%
2014-04-08
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOSEPH BRUNNER
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
38%
2012-07-06
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MICHAEL MELNICKE
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
38%
2012-07-06
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LEOPOLD FRIEDMAN
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
25%
2012-07-06
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ANTHONY DEROSA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2012-07-06
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BEACH 50TH STREET LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
—
2022-01-01
ended 2022-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
BEACH 50TH STREET LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
—
2021-01-01
ended 2021-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
BEACH 50TH STREET LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
—
2020-01-01
ended 2020-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$7,926,237
—
—
$197,786
$3,847,154
13
propco
2023-12-31
$7,449,235
—
—
$1,371,334
$1,939,848
13
propco
2022-12-31
$5,888,815
—
—
$1,300,723
$485,180
13
propco
2021-12-31
$5,076,426
—
—
$1,150,000
$810,000
12
propco
2020-12-31
$5,632,307
—
—
$859,975
$886,440
12
propco
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
35
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 36081
acs median gross
0
$1,597
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 36081
fmr
0
$2,529
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 36081
acs median gross
1
$1,792
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 36081
fmr
1
$2,655
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 36081
acs median gross
2
$2,033
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 36081
fmr
2
$2,910
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 36081
acs median gross
3
$2,384
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 36081
fmr
3
$3,644
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 36081
acs median gross
4
$2,637
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 36081
fmr
4
$3,959
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 36081
acs median gross
5
$2,292
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 36081
acs median gross
$1,956
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 36081
acs recent mover gross
$2,285
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 11691
acs median gross
0
$542
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 11691
acs median gross
1
$1,287
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 11691
acs median gross
2
$1,765
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 11691
acs median gross
3
$1,816
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 11691
acs median gross
4
$1,339
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 11691
acs median gross
$1,425
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 11691
acs recent mover gross
$1,626
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 11691
payment standard 110
0
$2,794
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 11691
payment standard 90
0
$2,286
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 11691
safmr
0
$2,540
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 11691
payment standard 110
1
$2,926
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 11691
payment standard 90
1
$2,394
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 11691
safmr
1
$2,660
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 11691
payment standard 110
2
$3,212
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 11691
payment standard 90
2
$2,628
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 11691
safmr
2
$2,920
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 11691
payment standard 110
3
$4,026
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 11691
payment standard 90
3
$3,294
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 11691
safmr
3
$3,660
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 11691
payment standard 110
4
$4,367
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 11691
payment standard 90
4
$3,573
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 11691
safmr
4
$3,970
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.