1024 WEST WALNUT, JACKSONVILLE, IL 62650 · CCN 145294 · chain ATIED ASSOCIATES LLC
Composite
81.2 / 100 percentile
Peer group
snf n = 14,684
Evidence depth
deep
Certified beds
126
Model
v1.2
Reads as: riskier than 81.2% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
16
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+37.8 vs natl
ATIED ASSOCIATES LLC
23 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+36.8 vs natl
ROTHNER ERIC
6 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+35.5 vs natl
EXTENDED CARE CONSULTING LLC
18 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+34.8 vs natl
EXTENDED CARE CLINICAL LLC
18 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+32.9 vs natl
ROTH CO LLP
40 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+32.6 vs natl
2201 MAIN STREET
18 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+26.3 vs natl
ARONIN DAVID
9 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
5 chains
ROTH CO LLP
35 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
72% fined
2201 MAIN STREET
18 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
72% fined
EXTENDED CARE CLINICAL LLC
18 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
72% fined
EXTENDED CARE CONSULTING LLC
18 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
67% fined
ARONIN DAVID
9 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
65% fined
ATIED ASSOCIATES LLC
23 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
50% fined
DIXON WILLIAM
6 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
50% fined
ROTH CO LLP
40 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
50% fined
ROTHNER ERIC
6 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
IL median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
4.01
3.13
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.34
0.49
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.35
2.93
3.11
—
Weekday total
4.26
3.23
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
50.7
4.01
0.34
1.07
2.59
3.35
0.0%
2025Q3
92
49.0
4.43
0.28
1.09
3.06
3.99
1.6%
2025Q2
91
47.4
3.65
0.19
0.95
2.51
3.58
4.0%
2025Q1
90
47.6
2.80
0.15
0.97
1.68
2.67
12.7%
2024Q4
92
48.9
3.11
0.26
0.96
1.89
2.74
1.4%
2024Q3
92
48.1
3.26
0.22
0.90
2.13
3.05
0.8%
2024Q2
91
48.4
2.76
0.21
0.87
1.68
2.50
1.0%
2024Q1
91
51.1
2.73
0.25
0.90
1.57
2.52
0.0%
2023Q4
92
52.0
2.73
0.24
0.92
1.56
2.37
0.2%
2023Q3
92
52.2
2.70
0.22
0.93
1.55
2.40
0.0%
2023Q2
91
53.1
2.35
0.23
0.84
1.28
2.09
2.4%
2023Q1
90
56.8
2.46
0.17
0.93
1.36
2.28
2.7%
2022Q4
92
57.8
2.79
0.09
0.96
1.75
2.44
0.1%
2022Q3
92
58.9
2.48
0.16
0.76
1.55
2.12
0.8%
2022Q2
91
62.4
2.03
0.27
0.69
1.07
1.77
3.4%
2022Q1
90
65.1
2.11
0.35
0.68
1.09
1.83
0.1%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing.
D
2026-05-15
2026-04-23
Health · complaint
F0690
Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections.
J
2026-05-15
2026-04-23
Health · complaint
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2026-05-15
2026-04-23
Health · complaint
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
D
2026-05-15
2026-04-23
Health · complaint
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
E
2026-05-15
2025-10-24
Health · complaint
F0687
Provide appropriate foot care.
D
2025-11-26
2025-10-24
Health · complaint
F0842
Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards.
D
2025-11-26
2025-06-30
Health · complaint
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2025-07-09
2025-06-30
Health · complaint
F0686
Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing.
D
2025-07-09
2024-04-11
Health
F0686
Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing.
D
2024-04-22
2024-04-11
Health
F0727
Have a registered nurse on duty 8 hours a day; and select a registered nurse to be the director of nurses on a full time basis.
F
2024-04-22
2024-04-11
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
E
2024-04-22
2023-05-10
Health
F0690
Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections.
D
2023-05-26
2023-05-10
Health
F0727
Have a registered nurse on duty 8 hours a day; and select a registered nurse to be the director of nurses on a full time basis.
F
2023-05-26
2023-05-10
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2023-05-26
2023-05-10
Health
F0882
Designate a qualified infection preventionist to be responsible for the infection prevent and control program in the nursing home.
F
2023-05-26
2023-05-10
Health
F0883
Develop and implement policies and procedures for flu and pneumonia vaccinations.
D
2023-05-26
2022-06-16
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
G
2022-07-11
2022-06-16
Health
F0690
Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections.
E
2022-07-11
2022-06-16
Health
F0759
Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater.
D
2022-07-11
2022-06-16
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
F
2022-07-11
2022-06-16
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
E
2022-07-11
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
32
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
RAY, SHERWIN
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
50%
2020-12-31
current
pecos_ownership
ROTHNER, ERIC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
33%
2020-12-31
current
pecos_ownership
2201 MAIN STREET
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
—
2024-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
2201 MAIN STREET
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
—
2023-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
ARONIN, DAVID
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2015-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
ATIED ASSOCIATES LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-12-15
current
pecos_ownership
DIXON, WILLIAM
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2015-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
EXTENDED CARE CLINICAL LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-02-13
current
pecos_ownership
EXTENDED CARE CLINICAL LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2015-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
EXTENDED CARE CONSULTING LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-02-13
current
pecos_ownership
EXTENDED CARE CONSULTING LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2015-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
PRAIRIE VILLAGER HEALTCARE LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
—
2024-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
PRAIRIE VILLAGER HEALTCARE LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
—
2023-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
RAY, SHERWIN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2015-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
ROTH & CO, LLP
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-02-13
current
pecos_ownership
ROTH & CO, LLP
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2015-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
ROTHNER, ERIC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-11
current
pecos_ownership
SPRINGER, JERRI
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2015-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
SHERWIN RAY
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
50%
2020-12-31
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ERIC ROTHNER
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
33%
2020-12-31
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ATIED ASSOCIATES LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
17%
2020-12-31
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
2201 MAIN STREET
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
—
2022-01-01
ended 2022-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
2201 MAIN STREET
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
—
2021-01-01
ended 2021-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
2201 MAIN STREET
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
—
2020-01-01
ended 2020-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
DAVID ARONIN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2015-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ERIC ROTHNER
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-11
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JERRI SPRINGER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2015-12-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PRAIRIE VILLAGER HEALTCARE LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
—
2022-01-01
ended 2022-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
PRAIRIE VILLAGER HEALTCARE LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
—
2021-01-01
ended 2021-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
PRAIRIE VILLAGER HEALTCARE LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
—
2020-01-01
ended 2020-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
SHERWIN RAY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2015-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
WILLIAM DIXON
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2015-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$637,222
—
$224,530
—
—
5
propco
2023-12-31
$310,714
—
—
—
—
5
propco
2022-12-31
$473,279
—
$4,241
—
—
4
propco
2021-12-31
$514,810
—
$5,445
—
—
4
propco
2020-12-31
$470,256
—
$5,237
—
—
4
propco
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
36
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 17137
acs median gross
0
$646
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 17137
fmr
0
$632
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 17137
acs median gross
1
$524
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 17137
fmr
1
$698
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 17137
acs median gross
2
$775
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 17137
fmr
2
$916
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 17137
acs median gross
3
$861
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 17137
fmr
3
$1,138
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 17137
acs median gross
4
$1,218
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 17137
fmr
4
$1,537
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 17137
acs median gross
5
$1,306
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 17137
acs median gross
$722
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 17137
acs recent mover gross
$1,065
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 62650
acs median gross
0
$646
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 62650
acs median gross
1
$514
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 62650
acs median gross
2
$768
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 62650
acs median gross
3
$866
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 62650
acs median gross
4
$1,210
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 62650
acs median gross
5
$1,294
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 62650
acs median gross
$710
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 62650
acs recent mover gross
$1,088
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 62650
payment standard 110
0
$693
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 62650
payment standard 90
0
$567
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 62650
safmr
0
$630
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 62650
payment standard 110
1
$770
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 62650
payment standard 90
1
$630
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 62650
safmr
1
$700
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 62650
payment standard 110
2
$1,012
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 62650
payment standard 90
2
$828
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 62650
safmr
2
$920
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 62650
payment standard 110
3
$1,254
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 62650
payment standard 90
3
$1,026
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 62650
safmr
3
$1,140
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 62650
payment standard 110
4
$1,694
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 62650
payment standard 90
4
$1,386
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 62650
safmr
4
$1,540
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.