Reads as: riskier than 63.9% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
24
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+37.7 vs natl
RANDI SCHULLO GRANTOR TR DATED 11 02 2004
23 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+37.7 vs natl
LAUREN MAGNUSSON GRANTOR TR DATED 11 02 2004
23 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+37.7 vs natl
AUDRA ELISCO GRANTOR TR DATED 11 02 2004
23 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+37.3 vs natl
CARL JOAN
26 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+37.1 vs natl
ALDEN MANAGEMENT SERVICES INC
27 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+36.9 vs natl
MOLITOR ROBERT
25 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+36.7 vs natl
SCHULLO RANDI
27 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+36.3 vs natl
MAGNUSSON PAIGE
23 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+36.3 vs natl
ELISCO ARIN
23 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+36.3 vs natl
ELISCO CHARLES
23 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+36.3 vs natl
MAGNUSSON GARRETT
23 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+36.3 vs natl
SCHULLO NICOLE
23 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+36.2 vs natl
FORUM PROFESSIONAL CENTER
24 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+36.2 vs natl
SCHLOSSBERG FLOYD
25 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+35.7 vs natl
THE ALDEN GROUP LTD
27 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+34.4 vs natl
SCHULMAN JOSEPH
24 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+26.6 vs natl
MAGNUSSON LAUREN
6 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+26.6 vs natl
ELISCO AUDRA
6 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
50% fined
ELISCO AUDRA
6 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
50% fined
MAGNUSSON LAUREN
6 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
42% fined
FORUM PROFESSIONAL CENTER
24 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
41% fined
SCHULLO RANDI
27 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
41% fined
ALDEN MANAGEMENT SERVICES INC
27 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
40% fined
SCHLOSSBERG FLOYD
25 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
15
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
IL median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
4.24
3.13
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.88
0.49
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
4.08
2.93
3.11
—
Weekday total
4.30
3.23
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
43.7
4.24
0.88
0.78
2.58
4.08
0.0%
2025Q3
92
44.9
4.14
0.78
0.77
2.59
3.89
0.0%
2025Q2
91
43.1
4.37
0.72
1.00
2.64
4.11
0.0%
2025Q1
90
47.0
4.09
0.69
0.90
2.50
3.83
0.0%
2024Q4
92
45.2
4.15
0.71
0.90
2.54
3.89
0.0%
2024Q2
91
45.0
4.33
0.42
1.16
2.74
3.96
0.0%
2024Q1
91
43.5
4.18
0.73
0.74
2.71
4.06
0.0%
2023Q4
92
41.1
4.34
0.78
0.70
2.85
4.24
0.0%
2023Q3
92
42.0
3.99
0.64
0.67
2.68
3.80
0.0%
2023Q2
91
36.2
4.19
0.66
0.89
2.64
4.10
0.0%
2023Q1
90
40.2
3.88
0.74
0.80
2.34
3.78
0.0%
2022Q4
92
36.7
4.39
0.98
0.92
2.49
4.19
0.0%
2022Q3
92
37.0
4.30
1.04
0.68
2.58
3.97
0.0%
2022Q2
91
37.8
3.83
1.26
0.47
2.09
3.37
0.0%
2022Q1
90
38.1
3.08
1.05
0.41
1.61
2.94
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
11
D × 6E × 1F × 3G × 1
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2025-07-31
Health
F0694
Provide for the safe, appropriate administration of IV fluids for a resident when needed.
D
2025-08-12
2025-07-31
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2025-08-12
2025-07-31
Health
F0800
Provide each resident with a nourishing, palatable, well-balanced diet that meets his or her daily nutritional and special dietary needs.
E
2025-08-12
2025-07-31
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2025-08-12
2024-09-12
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
G
2024-09-20
2024-09-12
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2024-09-20
2024-09-12
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2024-09-20
2023-09-01
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2023-09-12
2023-09-01
Health
F0804
Ensure food and drink is palatable, attractive, and at a safe and appetizing temperature.
D
2023-09-15
2023-09-01
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2023-09-12
2023-09-01
Health
F0881
Implement a program that monitors antibiotic use.
F
2023-09-12
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
50
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
ALDEN ESTATES OF SHOREWOOD I LLC
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
100%
2023-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
ALDEN ESTATES OF SHOREWOOD I LLC
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
100%
2024-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
SHOREWOOD INVESTMENTS I LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2007-06-14
current
pecos_ownership
FORUM PROFESSIONAL CENTER
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
58%
2024-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
FORUM PROFESSIONAL CENTER
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
58%
2023-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
AKERMAN, ANNETTE
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2017-07-09
current
pecos_ownership
ALDEN MANAGEMENT SERVICES, INC.
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2011-10-07
current
pecos_ownership
AUDRA ELISCO GRANTOR TR DATED 11/02/2004
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2018-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
CARL, JOAN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2010-05-10
current
pecos_ownership
CHRISTENSEN, VALERIE
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2017-02-22
current
pecos_ownership
ELISCO, ARIN
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2013-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
ELISCO, AUDRA
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2013-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
ELISCO, CHARLES
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2013-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
KROLL, STEVEN
CONTRACTED MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2001-12-06
current
pecos_ownership
LAUREN MAGNUSSON GRANTOR TR DATED 11/02/2004
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2018-02-28
current
pecos_ownership
MAGNUSSON, GARRETT
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2013-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
MAGNUSSON, LAUREN
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2013-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
MAGNUSSON, PAIGE
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2013-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
MOLITOR, ROBERT
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2008-06-16
current
pecos_ownership
MURDOCH, CHRISTINA
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2019-05-12
current
pecos_ownership
RANDI SCHULLO GRANTOR TR DATED 11/02/2004
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2018-02-28
current
pecos_ownership
SCHLOSSBERG, FLOYD
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2011-10-07
current
pecos_ownership
SCHULLO, JOSEPH
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2013-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
SCHULLO, NICOLE
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2013-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
SCHULLO, RANDI
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2013-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
SCHULLO, RANDI
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2010-02-16
current
pecos_ownership
THE ALDEN GROUP, LTD.
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
1996-10-09
current
pecos_ownership
ALDEN ESTATES OF SHOREWOOD I LLC
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
100%
2022-01-01
ended 2022-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
ANNETTE AKERMAN
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
100%
2017-07-09
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SHOREWOOD LLC
Director, officer, administrator or key person of provider or organization
100%
2020-01-01
ended 2020-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
SHOREWOOD LLC
Director, officer, administrator or key person of provider or organization
100%
2021-01-01
ended 2021-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
VALERIE CHRISTENSEN
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
100%
2017-02-22
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
FORUM PROFESSIONAL CENTER
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
58%
2022-01-01
ended 2022-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
FLOYD SCHLOSSBERG
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
50%
2011-10-07
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOAN CARL
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
50%
2010-05-10
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
FORUM
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
33%
2021-01-01
ended 2021-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
FORUM
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
33%
2020-01-01
ended 2020-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
AUDRA ELISCO
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
21%
2013-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LAUREN MAGNUSSON
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
21%
2013-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RANDI SCHULLO
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
21%
2013-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ARIN ELISCO
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
6%
2013-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHARLES ELISCO
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
6%
2013-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
GARRETT MAGNUSSON
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
6%
2013-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOSEPH SCHULLO
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
6%
2013-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
NICOLE SCHULLO
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
6%
2013-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PAIGE MAGNUSSON
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
6%
2013-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
STEVEN KROLL
CONTRACTED MANAGING EMPLOYEE
2%
2001-12-06
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHRISTINA MURDOCH
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2019-05-12
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RANDI SCHULLO
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2010-02-16
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ROBERT MOLITOR
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2008-06-16
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$1,940,622
$787,782
—
$547,981
$35,497
9
propco
2023-12-31
$1,997,791
$796,733
—
$562,898
$33,776
9
propco
2022-12-31
$2,102,809
$839,317
—
$657,031
$30,380
9
propco
2021-12-31
$2,158,729
$923,409
—
$633,616
$32,292
8
propco
2020-12-31
$2,016,574
$980,783
—
$578,439
$31,154
7
propco
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
32
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 17197
acs median gross
0
$1,076
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 17197
fmr
0
$1,480
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 17197
acs median gross
1
$1,127
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 17197
fmr
1
$1,581
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 17197
acs median gross
2
$1,427
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 17197
fmr
2
$1,781
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 17197
acs median gross
3
$1,814
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 17197
fmr
3
$2,294
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 17197
acs median gross
4
$2,210
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 17197
fmr
4
$2,653
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 17197
acs median gross
5
$2,249
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 17197
acs median gross
$1,462
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 17197
acs recent mover gross
$1,686
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 60404
acs median gross
1
$1,042
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 60404
acs median gross
2
$1,431
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 60404
acs median gross
3
$1,902
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 60404
acs median gross
$1,779
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 60404
payment standard 110
0
$2,189
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60404
payment standard 90
0
$1,791
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60404
safmr
0
$1,990
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60404
payment standard 110
1
$2,332
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60404
payment standard 90
1
$1,908
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60404
safmr
1
$2,120
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60404
payment standard 110
2
$2,629
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60404
payment standard 90
2
$2,151
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60404
safmr
2
$2,390
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60404
payment standard 110
3
$3,388
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60404
payment standard 90
3
$2,772
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60404
safmr
3
$3,080
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60404
payment standard 110
4
$3,916
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60404
payment standard 90
4
$3,204
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60404
safmr
4
$3,560
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.