Reads as: riskier than 86.5% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
MI median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.21
3.52
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.73
0.47
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.12
3.32
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.24
3.61
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
75.7
3.21
0.73
0.37
2.11
3.12
0.0%
2025Q3
92
76.5
3.28
0.65
0.40
2.23
3.19
0.0%
2025Q2
91
80.0
3.16
0.72
0.34
2.10
3.00
0.0%
2025Q1
90
80.2
3.08
0.60
0.40
2.08
2.95
0.0%
2024Q4
92
76.8
3.37
0.69
0.43
2.25
3.07
0.0%
2024Q3
92
76.8
3.29
0.58
0.48
2.24
2.98
0.0%
2024Q2
91
76.2
3.42
0.62
0.53
2.26
3.13
0.0%
2024Q1
91
76.2
3.24
0.56
0.55
2.14
2.98
0.0%
2023Q4
92
73.5
3.34
0.56
0.59
2.19
3.07
0.0%
2023Q3
92
70.8
3.37
0.50
0.61
2.25
3.21
0.0%
2023Q2
91
73.6
3.27
0.54
0.56
2.16
3.01
0.0%
2023Q1
90
71.3
3.51
0.58
0.58
2.35
3.25
0.0%
2022Q4
92
63.0
3.75
0.66
0.61
2.47
3.42
0.0%
2022Q3
92
60.9
3.82
0.62
0.70
2.51
3.52
1.8%
2022Q2
91
66.4
3.72
0.43
0.88
2.41
3.38
7.0%
2022Q1
90
64.6
3.48
0.45
0.75
2.28
3.17
3.6%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Ensure the transfer/discharge meets the resident's needs/preferences and that the resident is prepared for a safe transfer/discharge.
D
2026-05-01
2025-04-25
Health
F0550
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
E
2025-05-15
2025-04-25
Health
F0658
Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality.
D
2025-05-15
2025-04-25
Health
F0688
Provide appropriate care for a resident to maintain and/or improve range of motion (ROM), limited ROM and/or mobility, unless a decline is for a medical reason.
D
2025-05-15
2025-04-25
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
B
2025-05-15
2025-04-25
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
F
2025-05-15
2024-07-02
Health · complaint
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2024-07-31
2024-05-02
Health · complaint
F0558
Reasonably accommodate the needs and preferences of each resident.
E
2024-05-31
2024-05-02
Health · complaint
F0658
Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality.
F
2024-06-18
2024-05-02
Health
F0686
Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing.
K
2024-05-31
2024-05-02
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
E
2024-05-31
2024-05-02
Health
F0690
Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections.
E
2024-05-31
2024-05-02
Health · complaint
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
E
2024-05-31
2024-05-02
Health · complaint
F0697
Provide safe, appropriate pain management for a resident who requires such services.
D
2024-05-31
2024-05-02
Health
F0727
Have a registered nurse on duty 8 hours a day; and select a registered nurse to be the director of nurses on a full time basis.
F
2024-05-31
2024-05-02
Health
F0757
Ensure each resident’s drug regimen must be free from unnecessary drugs.
D
2024-05-31
2024-05-02
Health
F0839
Employ staff that are licensed, certified, or registered in accordance with state laws.
E
2024-05-31
2024-05-02
Health · complaint
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
H
2024-05-31
2024-05-02
Health · complaint
F0881
Implement a program that monitors antibiotic use.
D
2024-05-31
2024-05-02
Health
F0883
Develop and implement policies and procedures for flu and pneumonia vaccinations.
G
2024-05-31
2024-05-02
Health · complaint
F0921
Make sure that the nursing home area is safe, easy to use, clean and comfortable for residents, staff and the public.
E
2024-05-31
2023-11-01
Health · complaint
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2023-11-20
2023-11-01
Health · complaint
F0712
Ensure that the resident and his/her doctor meet face-to-face at all required visits.
D
2023-11-20
2023-04-27
Health
F0610
Respond appropriately to all alleged violations.
D
2023-05-19
2023-04-27
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2023-05-19
2023-04-27
Health
F0688
Provide appropriate care for a resident to maintain and/or improve range of motion (ROM), limited ROM and/or mobility, unless a decline is for a medical reason.
E
2023-05-19
2023-04-27
Health
F0760
Ensure that residents are free from significant medication errors.
D
2023-05-19
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
21
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
CARSON CITY SENIOR LEASING
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2023-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
CARSON CITY SENIOR LEASING
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2024-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
CIENA HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT INC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
CIENA HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT INC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
ESTEP, BILLIEJO
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
KHAN, ANIS
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2016-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
LAUREL ACQUISITION HOLDING CORPORATION
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2016-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
LAUREL HEALTH CARE HOLDINGS, INC.
DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2016-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
MOHAMMAD A QAZI LIVING TRUST DATED 09/26/97
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2016-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
QAZI, MOHAMMAD
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2016-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
SMITH, GARRETT
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
STOBB, DAVID
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
THE LAURELS OF CARSON CITY REAL ESTATE, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2016-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
CARSON CITY SENIOR LEASING
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2022-01-01
ended 2022-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
CARSON CITY SENIOR LEASING
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2021-01-01
ended 2021-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
LAURELS OF CARSON CITY REAL ESTATE
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2020-01-01
ended 2020-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
MOHAMMAD QAZI
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2016-02-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ANIS KHAN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2016-02-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BILLIEJO ESTEP
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-11-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DAVID STOBB
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
GARRETT SMITH
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$1,538,452
$964,557
$543,558
—
—
3
propco
2023-12-31
$1,438,352
$935,923
$478,071
—
—
3
propco
2022-12-31
$2,226,805
$1,692,744
$469,060
—
—
3
propco
2021-12-31
$2,151,852
—
$417,497
—
—
3
propco
2020-12-31
$363,232
—
$15,878
—
$71,097
4
propco
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
32
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 26117
acs median gross
0
$754
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 26117
fmr
0
$829
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 26117
acs median gross
1
$707
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 26117
fmr
1
$1,016
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 26117
acs median gross
2
$875
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 26117
fmr
2
$1,203
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 26117
acs median gross
3
$1,029
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 26117
fmr
3
$1,473
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 26117
acs median gross
4
$1,176
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 26117
fmr
4
$1,593
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 26117
acs median gross
$869
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 26117
acs recent mover gross
$987
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 48811
acs median gross
1
$483
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 48811
acs median gross
2
$684
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 48811
acs median gross
3
$1,048
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 48811
acs median gross
$703
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 48811
acs recent mover gross
$580
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 48811
payment standard 110
0
$803
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 48811
payment standard 90
0
$657
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 48811
safmr
0
$730
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 48811
payment standard 110
1
$979
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 48811
payment standard 90
1
$801
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 48811
safmr
1
$890
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 48811
payment standard 110
2
$1,155
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 48811
payment standard 90
2
$945
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 48811
safmr
2
$1,050
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 48811
payment standard 110
3
$1,419
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 48811
payment standard 90
3
$1,161
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 48811
safmr
3
$1,290
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 48811
payment standard 110
4
$1,540
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 48811
payment standard 90
4
$1,260
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 48811
safmr
4
$1,400
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.