1000 East Tinkham Avenue, Ludington, MI 49431 · CCN 235358 · chain B&Y TRUST
Composite
74.2 / 100 percentile
Peer group
snf n = 14,684
Evidence depth
deep
Certified beds
93
Model
v1.2
Reads as: riskier than 74.2% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
MI median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.10
3.52
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.84
0.47
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.01
3.32
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.14
3.61
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
83.4
3.10
0.84
0.15
2.10
3.01
0.0%
2025Q3
92
83.3
3.09
0.82
0.15
2.12
2.76
0.0%
2025Q2
91
85.4
3.21
0.81
0.19
2.21
2.78
0.0%
2025Q1
90
84.9
3.33
0.90
0.13
2.30
2.97
0.0%
2024Q4
92
84.5
3.40
0.98
0.10
2.32
3.05
0.0%
2024Q3
92
81.5
3.16
0.79
0.21
2.16
2.72
0.0%
2024Q2
91
73.2
3.19
0.71
0.35
2.12
2.77
0.0%
2024Q1
91
73.8
2.94
0.73
0.28
1.93
2.49
0.0%
2023Q4
92
70.0
3.38
0.92
0.25
2.21
2.89
0.0%
2023Q3
92
67.2
3.46
0.80
0.20
2.46
3.03
0.0%
2023Q2
91
62.7
3.67
0.70
0.22
2.75
3.14
0.0%
2023Q1
90
64.4
3.85
0.82
0.33
2.70
3.25
0.0%
2022Q4
92
65.4
3.67
0.78
0.38
2.51
3.13
0.0%
2022Q3
92
62.4
3.89
0.82
0.36
2.71
3.69
0.0%
2022Q2
91
63.7
3.68
0.84
0.26
2.58
3.33
0.0%
2022Q1
90
67.0
3.66
0.74
0.35
2.57
3.22
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
D
2026-04-06
2026-03-11
Health
F0551
Give the resident's representative the ability to exercise the resident's rights.
D
2026-04-06
2026-03-11
Health
F0658
Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality.
E
2026-04-21
2026-03-11
Health · complaint
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
G
2026-04-06
2026-03-11
Health · complaint
F0686
Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing.
D
2026-04-06
2026-03-11
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2026-04-06
2026-03-11
Health
F0740
Ensure each resident must receive and the facility must provide necessary behavioral health care and services.
D
2026-04-06
2026-03-11
Health · complaint
F0741
Ensure that the facility has sufficient staff members who possess the competencies and skills to meet the behavioral health needs of residents.
E
2026-04-06
2026-03-11
Health
F0791
Provide or obtain dental services for each resident.
D
2026-04-06
2026-03-11
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
F
2026-04-06
2025-08-29
Health · complaint
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
G
2025-09-25
2025-07-09
Health · complaint
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
D
2025-06-02
2025-04-18
Health · complaint
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
G
2025-05-15
2025-04-18
Health · complaint
F0726
Ensure that nurses and nurse aides have the appropriate competencies to care for every resident in a way that maximizes each resident's well being.
E
2025-05-15
2025-02-13
Health
F0550
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
D
2025-03-21
2025-02-13
Health
F0622
Not transfer or discharge a resident without an adequate reason; and must provide documentation and convey specific information when a resident is transferred or discharged.
D
2025-03-21
2025-02-13
Health
F0625
Notify the resident or the resident’s representative in writing how long the nursing home will hold the resident’s bed in cases of transfer to a hospital or therapeutic leave.
D
2025-03-21
2024-10-24
Health · complaint
F0558
Reasonably accommodate the needs and preferences of each resident.
E
2024-12-02
2024-10-24
Health · complaint
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
E
2024-12-02
2024-10-24
Health · complaint
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
E
2024-12-02
2024-09-25
Health · complaint
F0607
Develop and implement policies and procedures to prevent abuse, neglect, and theft.
D
2024-10-24
2024-09-25
Health · complaint
F0658
Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality.
E
2024-10-24
2024-09-25
Health · complaint
F0676
Ensure residents do not lose the ability to perform activities of daily living unless there is a medical reason.
D
2024-10-24
2024-09-25
Health · complaint
F0690
Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections.
D
2024-10-24
2024-07-09
Health · complaint
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2024-08-06
2024-07-09
Health · complaint
F0842
Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards.
E
2024-08-06
2024-01-24
Health · complaint
F0550
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
E
2024-02-26
2024-01-24
Health
F0578
Honor the resident's right to request, refuse, and/or discontinue treatment, to participate in or refuse to participate in experimental research, and to formulate an advance directive.
D
2024-02-26
2024-01-24
Health
F0847
Inform resident or representatives choice to enter into binding arbitration agreement and right to refuse.
D
2024-02-26
2024-01-24
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
E
2024-02-26
2023-10-19
Health · complaint
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2023-11-15
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
17
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
EVEREST OPCO GROUP LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2018-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
B&Y HEALTHCARE S CORP
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2018-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
B&Y TRUST
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2018-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
BLOSSOM HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2018-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
CODY HEALTHCARE S CORP
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2018-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
CRAIG FLASHNER 2007 TRUST
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2018-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
FLASHNER, CRAIG
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2018-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
KIRK, KRISTINE
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2018-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
NORCROSS, ROBERT
CONTRACTED MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2018-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
PERLSTEIN, YITZCHOK
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2018-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
PRESTIGE ADMINISTRATIVE SERVICES, LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2018-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
ROGERS, STACEY
CONTRACTED MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2018-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
CRAIG FLASHNER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2018-02-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KRISTINE KIRK
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2018-02-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ROBERT NORCROSS
CONTRACTED MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2018-02-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
STACEY ROGERS
CONTRACTED MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2018-02-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
YITZCHOK PERLSTEIN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2018-02-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$307,752
—
$307,752
—
—
6
—
2023-12-31
$299,632
—
$299,632
—
—
6
—
2022-12-31
$281,440
—
$281,440
—
—
6
—
2021-12-31
$250,661
—
$250,661
—
—
6
—
2020-12-31
$251,162
—
$251,162
—
—
6
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
35
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 26105
acs median gross
0
$501
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 26105
fmr
0
$726
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 26105
acs median gross
1
$715
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 26105
fmr
1
$816
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 26105
acs median gross
2
$929
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 26105
fmr
2
$1,026
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 26105
acs median gross
3
$1,149
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 26105
fmr
3
$1,366
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 26105
acs median gross
4
$1,085
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 26105
fmr
4
$1,374
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 26105
acs median gross
5
$1,525
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 26105
acs median gross
$896
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 26105
acs recent mover gross
$1,042
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 49431
acs median gross
0
$503
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 49431
acs median gross
1
$718
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 49431
acs median gross
2
$951
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 49431
acs median gross
3
$1,284
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 49431
acs median gross
4
$1,140
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 49431
acs median gross
$914
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 49431
acs recent mover gross
$997
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 49431
payment standard 110
0
$814
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 49431
payment standard 90
0
$666
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 49431
safmr
0
$740
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 49431
payment standard 110
1
$913
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 49431
payment standard 90
1
$747
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 49431
safmr
1
$830
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 49431
payment standard 110
2
$1,155
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 49431
payment standard 90
2
$945
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 49431
safmr
2
$1,050
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 49431
payment standard 110
3
$1,540
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 49431
payment standard 90
3
$1,260
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 49431
safmr
3
$1,400
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 49431
payment standard 110
4
$1,551
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 49431
payment standard 90
4
$1,269
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 49431
safmr
4
$1,410
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.